We have served clients in more than 70 projects across all major industries and countries around the globe!
Our scenario-based Dynamic Strategy approach is extremely flexible and can be used for narrow targeted questions as well as broader topics. Whether you are focusing on a specific business or sector-level and even macro-level issues, the Center for the Long View can help decision-makers to understand potential future challenges. Since the Center for the Long View was founded in 2015, we have relied on this well-established methodology in over 70 client projects – each tailored to the clients’ specific needs and circumstances.
The future of the Chemicals industry is uncertain. Volatile political environments, digitization along the entire value chain and increasing competition from Chinese firms pose threats to established business models. The Center for the Long View supported leading chemical firms to identify possible future scenarios and asses the capabilities needed to succeed in the future. Questions we looked into include how the chemical industry in Germany will look like by 2030, how chemical companies should position themselves to be successful in Japan’s agriculture in 2025 and what the future of the home care chemicals value chain in Europe in 2030 will be.
01. Project Reference: Agriculture in Japan
Topic: Future of Agriculture in Japan
Industry: Chemicals
Type of Customer: Chemical Company
Focal Questions: How should the chemical company position itself to be successful in Japan’s agriculture in 2025?
Key Challenges:
The Japanese agriculture industry is facing a high level of disruption such as policies to increase efficiency and reduces costs, over ageing and technological changes
Changes of business models, distribution channels and use of technologies are inevitable
Outcome:
Identification of future scenarios to derive implications of Japanese agricultural landscape on company go-to market strategies and market opportunities
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
03. Project Reference: Chemical Industry in Germany
Topic: Future of the Chemical Industry in Germany
Industry: Chemicals
Type of Customer: Chemistry Sector
Focal Questions: How will the chemical industry in Germany look like by 2030?
Key Challenges:
The chemical industry is confronting change as unconventional, aggressive competitors from China, expensive investments in innovations with open outcomes and market changing mega-fusions result in growth rates lower than expected
Digitalization and regulatory changes lead classic value chains to give ways to ecospheres that expand industries and evolve around changing consumer needs
Resource scarcity, pollution concerns and sustainability consciousness trigger geopolitical tensions and challenge industry players to sustain their market positioning in the era of the 4th industrial revolution
Outcome:
Development of future scenarios of the chemicals industry in Germany
Key Deliverables:
Investment landscape analysis
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
04. Project Reference: Home Care Chemicals Value Chain
Topic: Future of the Home Care Chemicals Value Chain
Industry: Chemcials
Type of Customer: British Home Care Chemical Manufacturer
Focal Questions: What is the future of the home care chemicals value chain in Europe in 2030?
Key Challenges:
The market for home care chemicals is characterizes by extremely low margins and high competitive pressure, with brand and private label manufacturers competing for customers and end-consumers
International economic and political influences will have a significant impact on the industry and will like change the value chain setup
The needs and behaviors of end-consumers are expected to change, influenced by an increasing demand for aspects like convenience and environmental friendliness
Due to online shopping, the role of private label manufacturers is unknown and it is questionable whether retailers will be needed in the future
Outcome:
Identification of future scenarios to derive implications and to serve as basis for the new corporate strategic
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Technological advances are disrupting the manufacturing industry. Especially automotive manufacturers need to rethink their business models given the rise of new technologies such as e-mobility and autonomous driving as well as a general shift in society towards shared economy. While the emergence of the mentioned trends is evident, it is uncertain how the industry will look like in the future and what it takes to be successful. The Center for the Long View helped multiple clients to shed light on possible scenarios of the future and the necessary capabilities to be successful. In previous projects, we identified future demands on OEM IT functions, described the future businesses of Captives in 2030 and gave an outlook of future mobility and the role of start-up companies.
01. Project Reference: OEM Finance Function
Topic: The Future of Accounting in Automotive 2025
Industry: Autmotive
Type of Customer: European Original Equipment Manufacturer
Focal Questions: What will the future of accounting look like in the Automotive industry in 2025?
Key Challenges:
Market players in the Automotive sector face disruptive trends both on macro and on industry level
E-Mobility, autonomous driving, car sharing and the use of telematics data (incl. big data) change the way OEMs interact with their clients and their supplies
Internal accounting processes have to be prepared for these trends as the changes enforced by strategic decision-makers will have a direct impact on how Accounting has to operate and position itself
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the needs of and demands on the Accounting divisions in international OEMs
Integration of results and derived strategic implications in the 5-year plan of our client
Key Deliverables:
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
02. Project Reference: OEM Business Unit 1 IT Function
Topic: Future Demands on OEM IT Functions
Industry: Autmotive
Type of Customer: International Original Equipment Manufacturer
Focal Questions: What are future demands on OEM IT functions?
Key Challenges:
Market players in the Automotive sector face disruptive trends both on macro and on industry level
E-Mobility, autonomous driving, car sharing and the use of telematics data (incl. big data) change the way OEMs operate and how internal IT processes have to be set up
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the needs of and demands on the IT departments in international OEMs
Derivation of strategic implications and incorporation of proposed steps for action in the long term strategy of our client
Key Deliverables:
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
03. Project Reference: OEM Business Unit 2 IT Function
Topic: Future Demands on OEM IT Functions
Industry: Autmotive
Type of Customer: European Original Equipment Manufacturer
Focal Questions: What are future demands on OEM IT functions?
Key Challenges:
E-Mobility, autonomous driving, car sharing and the use of telematics data (incl. big data) change the way OEMs operate and how internal IT processes have to be set up
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the needs of and demands on the IT departments in international OEMs
Derivation of strategic implications and incorporation of proposed steps for action in the long term strategy of our client
Integration into strategic planning of our client to make IT strategy more robust
Key Deliverables:
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Focal Questions: How could the Compensation and Benefits function of a multinational company operate in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Future changes may depend on the level of automation achieved in the department as well as the type of relationship desired between the company and employees
Outcome:
Derivation of C&B implications based on insights regarding trade-offs between automated measurement of employee performance versus personal employer-employee relationships
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will be the core businesses for Captives in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Increasing regulations, changing client preferences, emergence of automotive vehicles and digitalization are disruptive forces reshaping the traditional business model
Rising regulations will highly influence capital requirements, operating models and the IT infrastructure of Captives
Changing customer needs will trigger new mobility concepts
Outcome:
Identification of strategic implications of each future scenario for existing business model, including regulations, balance of power, operating model and customer contact
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Type of Customer: Global Original Equipment Manufacturer
Focal Questions: How will the automotive value chain look like by 2025? What different scenarios exist and what implications & strategic imperatives arise for an OEM?
Key Challenges:
E-mobility, sharing economy and manufacturing 4.0 are emerging forces that will transform the automotive value chain
Digital business models regarding infotainment and mobility services can significantly impact revenues if technology and customer preference keep evolving at today’s high pace
The workforce is at a transition phase with increasing need for IT talent
Outcome:
Creation of plausible scenarios and definition of signature transformation priorities per scenario
Quantified modelling based on key KPIs for business case calculations
Assessment of strategic options along dimensions of assets, people and supply structure
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Wind-tunneling of existing strategy along defined scenarios
Type of Customer: Japanese Original Equipment Manufacturer
Focal Questions: What will the future of mobility looks like and which role do current start-up companies play in it?
Key Challenges:
The mobility sector is quickly evolving, with new stakeholders entering the market (e.g. technology companies) and new trends in technology, society and environment emerging
Shifts in demographics will lead to changing customer demands
New technologies such as autonomous driving have lasting impact on how we move in the future
New mobility services, such as car hailing and car sharing, lead to no requirements on traditional players (e.g. OEMs and leasing companies) and gives new entrants the possibility to take new roles in the ecosystem, such as orchestrators
E-Mobility is facilitated by governmental frameworks and add complexity for current OEMs
Outcome:
Detailed start-up scouting, incl. competitor benchmarks, in the areas autonomous driving, e-mobility, and mobility services to help our client in global investment decisions
Key Deliverables:
Investment landscape analysis
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Consumer behavior of today is rapidly changing, driven by new technological and social trends. Changing demographics, sustainability concerns and increasing digital applications are exemplary drivers that influence how and what consumer purchase. The Center for the Long View supported several firms in this area to identify flexible and future proven strategies. Some of the questions we looked into include how voice-assisted interfaces will affect shopping experiences in Europe in 2030, how consumers will relate to fast-moving consumer goods in one generation and how the future of the air cargo industry will look like in 2025.
01. Project Reference: Russian Alcohol Market
Topic: Future of the Russian Alcohol Market
Industry: Consumer Goods
Type of Customer: Global Beverage Company
Focal Questions: What will the Russian alcohol market look like in 2025?
Key Challenges:
The Russian market for alcohol is very unpredictable and tied with the overall wealth of the average Russian consumer, making for example the volatile oil industry a key indicator whether consumer are willing to spend more or less money on alcohol
Furthermore, an increased protectionism could hinder international companies from entering the market
It is unsure whether high tariffs or prohibitions are put on international beverage companies
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the future of the Russian alcohol market and on political restrictions on international beverage companies
Derivation of strategic implications and incorporation of proposed steps for action in the long term strategy of our client
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Topic: Due Diligence of a Global Sportswear Company
Industry: Consumer Business & Services
Type of Customer: Chinese Investor
Focal Questions: Should our client, a Chinese investor, acquire a global sportswear company?
Key Challenges:
A Chinese investor evaluates the acquisition of a global sportswear company which is not willing to share financial information with its potential buyer
As the market and the potential target is not transparent to our client, we conducted Deep View analyses to investigate the global sportswear market and the target via trend, article, investment and patent analyses
Outcome:
Outside due diligence on the target sportswear company incl. the market it operates in
Topic: Future Strategy of a German Grocery Chain in Germany
Industry: Consumer Business & Services
Type of Customer: German Grocery Chain
Focal Questions: How should the German grocery chain position itself in the future?
Key Challenges:
Over the next 5 years, German retailors will be hit by significant economic, political, technological and socioeconomic shifts
The German grocery chain recently carried out a strategy update which is to be tested against possible futures for the German retail market
Outcome:
Development of plausible future scenarios on how retail might configure in Germany
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Wind-tunneling of existing strategy along defined scenarios
Strategy baselining
Development of new robust / dynamic strategy
04. Project Reference: Air Cargo
Topic: Future of Air Cargo Industry
Industry: Consumer Business & Services
Type of Customer: Global Airline Cargo Company
Focal Questions: What will the future of the air cargo industry look like in 2025?
Key Challenges:
Shift of global trade towards Asia while increased economic volatility and overcapacities put pressure on prices and planning excellence
Demand for more industry-specific solutions
New air cargo competitors from the Middle East and Asia along with low cost providers and competing transport modes
Rising disruptive forces such as digitalization, eCommerce, platform solutions
Outcome:
Development of business environment scenarios to identify and prioritize greenfield option space
Map strategic options against the existing business model to identify how much how much change is needed, along which dimensions, where innovation should take place
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Wind-tunneling of existing strategy along defined scenarios
Focal Questions: How will consumers relate to fast-moving consumer goods in one generation?
Key Challenges:
Consumers of today are rapidly changing, driven by new technological and social trends
Shifting demographics make it difficult for companies in the consumer business to identify and approach the right target groups
Consumer loyalty is decreasing and the demand for high-quality-low-prices is increasing, while social trends add further complexity
Outcome:
Identification of pain points in current client strategy and development of actionable steps on how to prepare for current and future consumer demands (dynamic strategy on C-level)
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Development of new robust / dynamic strategy
Wind-tunneling of existing strategy along defined scenarios
Topic: The Future of Processed Meat Production in Spain 2030
Industry: Food & Beverages
Type of Customer: European Food Producer
Focal Questions: What will the market of processed meat production in Spain look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Our client is concerned that processed meat could be listed as unhealthy by the World Health Organization (such as tobacco and sugar) leading to reputational and legal consequences
Furthermore, the means to produce meat, e.g. space and water for farming, are exhausted and require prioritization which markets are supplied predominantly with products and which are not
More and more substitutes for meat are entering the market
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the future of processed meat production in Spain and derivation of strategic implication for the CMO of your client
Framework to assess future threats which was used by our client afterwards in order to get an understanding on the future of fishery
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Type of Customer: Chinese Ride-Sharing Conglomerate
Focal Questions: How will demand, competition and regulation for car hailing services change in the upcoming years?
Key Challenges:
The car hailing service industry is still young and dependent on new technological progresses, regulatory frameworks and social acceptance
Providers have to face a multitude of stakeholders and competitors, including strong OEMs, leasing companies, and taxis
Regional characteristics strengthen the complexity
Outcome:
Detailed analyses on current car hailing trends, reactions from the taxi industry, market characteristics, regulatory frameworks and regional deep dives
Topic: The Future of Professional Service Firms 2030
Industry: Consumer Business & Services
Type of Customer: Global Professional Service Provider
Focal Questions: What needs and expectations will clients have towards a professional service provider in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Changing customer needs and expectations put a professional service provider’s competitive position at risk due to a potential mismatch between clients’ professional service demands and the company’s service offerings
Outcome:
Defining and analyzing future scenarios regarding customer needs and expectations towards a professional service provider in 2030 enabled our client to identify and respond to opportunities and threats by building a future-oriented service portfolio, and to strengthen its competitive position
Key Deliverables:
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
09. Project Reference: European Real Estate
Topic: The Future of Commercial Real Estate in Europe
Industry: Real Estate
Type of Customer: European Real Estate Companies
Focal Questions: What will the future of commercial real estate in Europe look like? How does this differ among metropolises?
Key Challenges:
The European real estate market is in motion. Depending on where you look, the market has either fully recovered from the financial crisis or is still in the process of recovering.
The industry is facing new technologies, global economic and political developments and social shifts
As the identified futures can happen one after the other, different cities can be positioned in different stages which must be investigated
Outcome:
A comprehensive study underlining four distinct scenarios on where the future of real estate in Europe is heading and which impact this has on the real estate value chain
Extension of the study towards specific metropolises and their respective future standing
Key Deliverables:
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
10. Project Reference: Residential Real Estate in Germany
Topic: The Future of Housing Associations 2030
Industry: Real Estate
Type of Customer: Building Societies / Investors
Focal Questions: How does a successful housing association look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
The environment becomes more volatile, dynamic and unpredictable
Housing associations must react to technological, regulatory, social, political and economical challenges
Especially the changing customer needs and their willingness to share data might crucially impact how housing associations operate in the future and which product they will offer to their clients
Outcome:
Comprehensive study on the future of housing associations 2030 and which plausible, yet distinct scenarios are possible
Derivation of implications and must-dos in order to be successful in the future
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
11. Project Reference: Housing Sector
Topic: Successful Housing Companies of the Future
Industry: Real Estate
Type of Customer: German Housing Association
Focal Questions: What does a successful housing company look like in the client’s regional environment in 2030?
Key Challenges:
The environment becomes more volatile, dynamic and unpredictable
Housing companies must react to technological, regulatory, social, political and economical challenges
Especially the changing customer needs and their willingness to share data might crucially impact how housing associations operate in the future and which product they will offer to their clients
Outcome:
Identification of future scenarios to derive implications
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
12. Project Reference: Commercial Real Estate in Germany
Topic: Successful Housing Companies of the Future
Industry: Real Estate
Type of Customer: German Real Estate Companies
Focal Questions: What will the future of commercial real estate in Europe look like?
Key Challenges:
The European real estate market is in motion. Depending on where you look, the market has either fully recovered from the financial crisis or is still in the process of recovering.
The industry is facing new technologies, global economic and political developments and social shifts
Outcome:
A comprehensive study underlining four distinct scenarios on where the future of real estate in Europe is heading and which impact this has on the real estate value chain
Key Deliverables:
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Focal Questions: How will voice-assisted interfaces impact shopping experiences in Europe in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Voice-assisted interfaces have reached a technological level where they generate enough value to become relevant to consumers and businesses but a lot of potential is not utilized
A large number of possible use cases indicate a very high potential of voice-assisted interfaces, which not only influence the future purchasing behavior, but also change the way of shopping
Outcome:
Identify voice-assisted shopping trends and prioritize the driving forces of the industry
Set-up scenarios describing the development of the voice-assisted shopping landscape in 2030
Derive strategic implications for trade and commerce and their stakeholders
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
A wide range of drivers is changing customer needs and expectations towards products and services in the technology, media and telecommunication industries. Regulatory developments make the outlook of the future – especially in the telecommunications market – even more complex and unforeseeable. The Center for the Long View supported several clients in identifying potential future scenarios and adapting their strategies accordingly. Among the questions we answered are how the Telco world will look like by 2030, what the TV and video landscape will look like by 2025 as well as how and where people in the semiconductor industry will work in 2027.
01. Project Reference: Fin. Information Services
Topic: Data and Analytics
Industry: Financial Services
Type of Customer: Global Financial Firm
Focal Questions: What will the expectations, needs and wants of data and analytics consumers be in 2030?
Key Challenges:
What will the expectations, needs and wants of data and analytics consumers be in 2030?
Global financial markets are increasingly interconnected and face the rapid pace of technology evolution resulting in changes to the financial information services business model when machines fulfill the tasks of analytical reports
Outcome:
Identification and evaluation of key driving forces of the financial information providers landscape
Facilitation of four detailed data-driven scenarios for the future of financial information
Deduction of strategic implications as a basis for the development of a global corporate strategy
Key Deliverables:
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Focal Questions: How and where will people in the semiconductor industry work in 2027? Where and how will companies find and motivate the necessary talent?
Key Challenges:
Future of work is reshaped by new technologies such as AI, the need for work-life-balance and flexible compensation & benefits concepts
Re-definition of HR models encompass aspects of global mobility, new working models, back-end HR processes, knowledge and training management
Outcome:
Identification of strategic implications of each future scenario in regard to current HR strategy
Prioritization of future options for HR strategy development
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Type of Customer: Multinational Telecommunications Provider
Focal Questions: How will the Telco world look like by 2030?
Key Challenges:
The global telecommunications market is facing new, potentially disrupting technologies such as Blockchain and artificial intelligence
Political and economic developments, such as changing regulatory developments, make the telecommunications market more complex and unforeseeable
Furthermore, shifting client expectations, driven by changing demographics and a shift in power of cultures, put new burdens on Telco providers as they have to adapt to new demands
Outcome:
Actionable items for the corporate strategy drawn from four distinct scenarios how the market could develop in the future
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
04. Project Reference: Telecommunications Sector in Europe
Topic: The Future of Telco Provider
Industry: Telecommunications
Type of Customer: European Telecommunications Provider
Focal Questions: How do we [a global telecommunications provider] have to prepare to be successful in 10 years?
Key Challenges:
A wide range of drivers is changing customer needs and expectations towards products and services, thus, disrupting long-established industries and business models, also across our client’s portfolio of service offerings
Changing customer needs and expectations put our client’s competitive position at risk due to a potential mismatch between clients’ service demands and Telefonica’s service offerings
Outcome:
Defining and analyzing future scenarios regarding customer needs and expectations towards our client in 10 years enabled us to identify and respond to opportunities and threats by building a future-oriented service portfolio, and to strengthen the competitive position
Key Deliverables:
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of new robust / dynamic strategy
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will the TV and video landscape look like by 2025?
Key Challenges:
Streaming services no longer serve as just a platform for movies and TV shows and investing in producing and licensing their own content
TV channels and media organizations are starting their own on-demand offerings
Large content producers are setting up their own streaming services
Outcome:
Looking at the final set of scenarios, we see digital platform companies (DPCs) being the major disruptors in the future TV and video market. By contrast, broadcasters and content producers face the greatest pressure for change.
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
06. Project Reference: Television & Media in Germany
Topic: The Future of TV and Video in Germany by 2025
Industry: Media
Type of Customer: Digital Media Company
Focal Questions: What will the TV and video landscape look like in Germany by 2025 and what does this mean for a German media company?
Key Challenges:
Streaming services no longer serve as just a platform for movies and TV shows and investing in producing and licensing their own content
TV channels and media organizations are starting their own on-demand offerings
Large content producers are setting up their own streaming services
Our client was a market player in the German TV and media market which is characterized by a public and state-financed institution with a set standard for quantity and quality which makes positioning of private channels even more difficult
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the future of television and media in Germany and derivation of strategic implication for our client
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Type of Customer: European Telecommunications Provider
Focal Questions: What will the future of digital Europe look like in 2025?
Key Challenges:
Social, economic and political challenges are inbound and innovative ideas are of short supply
Meanwhile, telecommunication providers are initiating the digital representation of the physical world on a European scale
This digitalization of Europe is impacted by a variety of uncertainties, including economic growth, immigration, technological advancements and customer readiness
Outcome:
A comprehensive study underlining four distinct scenarios on where the digitalization of Europe is heading until 2025 and which impact this has on telecommunications providers
Key Deliverables:
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Energy & Resources
Overview
As a response to climate change, increasing demands from politics and society set firms of the energy and resources industry under pressure and put existing business models at risk. At the same time new opportunities, for example within renewable energies, emerge and could generate new revenue streams. The Center for the Long View identified social, political and technological developments to help clients within the Energy & Resources industry to better understand future scenarios of their markets. Some of the questions we answered include how the coal market will develop in the next years to come, how the German renewable energy market will built up and what the needs and wants of offshore O&G players will be in 2030.
01. Project Reference: Coal Market
Topic: The Future of Coal
Industry: Mining
Type of Customer: African Mining Company
Focal Questions: How will the coal market develop in the next years to come?
Key Challenges:
As a response to climate change, the growing regulatory requirements to reduce GHG emissions from the electricity generation sector drive a rapid expansion of variable renewable energy solutions and reduce reliance on coal as a primary energy commodity.
New technologies alternative to coal-burning and substitute commodities and materials emerge continuously and their economics become favourable much faster with speedy uptake and scale-building supported by preferential tariffs and taxes.
Coal still plays the most important role in the world power supply but its increasingly unattractive economics mean that few power generators in the developed world are planning to invest in new coal-fired plants, instead, betting heavily on gas-fired, wind and solar power.
The demand for coal from the developing countries, mainly in Asia and Pacific regions, until recently thought to outstrip the decline in demand from the industrialized economies, seems to rapidly approach its peak.
Outcome:
Report to understand the long term trends and drivers shaping the future of coal and their impact on the global supply / demand dynamics, in order to develop an informed outlook on the future of coal as a global in-demand commodity.
The outlook on the future of coal is to be informed by the two complementary, and partially intersecting analyses: global, explorative and future-oriented research based on artificial intelligence and more granular industry desktop research
Focal Questions: What is the current development of the graphene market, how are future revenue potentials and which players are engaging in the market?
Key Challenges:
The majority of the clients revenue originates from coal interest and since the demand for coal, in classical applications such as energy and steel production, is decreasing, new revenue streams need to be explored
Coal derived materials and commodities are likely a lucrative alternative application and therefore need to be explored for their suitability
Outcome:
AI-based research and analysis of the graphene market landscape and identification of applications
Segmentation of the graphene value chain
Identification of opportunities in the graphene market and development of initial value proposition
Topic: The Future of the European Wind Energy Market
Industry: Energy & Resources
Type of Customer: European Energy Company
Focal Questions: How will the future of the European wind energy market look like?
Key Challenges:
The wind energy market in Europe is maturing, leaving less space for new entrants and requiring market players to initiative economics of scale while differentiating themselves from their competitors
The quality of wind turbines from emerging companies increases steadily and pose a serious threat for European manufacturers
Many wind turbines are tied to 5-year long maintenance contracts, of which many are expiring in the next months, requiring our client to think about auxiliary services and to build up new products
Outcome:
Development of four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios on the future of the wind energy market in Europe
Derivation of implications and strategic actions for the Chief Strategic Officer and the Chief Marketing Officer
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will be the needs and wants of offshore O&G players in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Current market conditions with reduced activity levels, significantly increasing cost focus and mounting competitive pressure as a result of excess capacity put the global shipping firm under high performance pressure
Outcome:
Derivation of strategic implications of each future scenario to generate value propositions and requirements for action plan
Specification of needs and key buying criteria of customers
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: How is the German renewable energy market built up, which players act in it and how it is developing in the near future?
Key Challenges:
The German renewable energy market will remain disruptive, volatile and policy-driven:
Excess supply of power
Continued increase in unpredictable supply situations
Ongoing redesign of renewable energy support schemes
Transmission expansion plans are slowed down due to regional political resistance
Storage solutions are currently not competitive due to the low peak/off-peak price spread
Continued growth of renewable energy sectors in Europe sparks interest to expand footprint
Outcome:
Detailed analyses on the German renewable energy market, the business models and players in the “smart grid” and “energy storage cluster” to find valuable strategic plays against the client’s competitors
Key Deliverables:
Investment landscape analysis
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will the future of mining in look like and which implications does this development have on a global mining company?
Key Challenges:
The global resources market is shaped by technological, economical, political and social trends which are often unpredictable and uncertain
Especially trends such as climate change, the de-carbonization of industries and the customer demand for more sustainable products change how materials are gathered and used
New technologies, e.g. the recycling of batteries of e-mobility cars, further increase the uncertainty about which materials will be demanded in the future and which are not
Furthermore, the competitive landscape in the mining sector is constantly changing and requires a details investigation in order to make informed strategic decisions
Outcome:
Internal study on how the global mining market could develop until 2030 and which implications these scenarios could have on a global mining company, incl. derivation of necessary strategic steps
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
The financial services industry is experiencing disruptions, which force players to adapt their strategies in order to be successful in the future. The Center for the Long View guided several clients through this process of shaping future scenarios, which helped our clients, to answer those questions, which are most crucial to their business. Within past projects, we looked among others at the future of blockchain, the attributes that successful banks will have in common in 2030 and gave an outlook on the European securities processing & post-trade services sector in 10 years.
01. Project Reference: French Banking Customer
Topic: Future of Banking Customers
Industry: Banking
Type of Customer: European Bank
Focal Questions: What will be the banking habits and preferences of French consumers in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Our client wanted to secure a more sustainable top-line growth over the next 12-15 years
The company was facing two different customer segments, on the one side SMEs and on the other side urban professionals, which were treated both equally
One key question was whether the customer preferences of these two segments will evolve equally or whether our client has to split offerings and differentiate between these two segments in order to not lose control of consumers
Outcome:
A detailed study on the development of customer preferences in the French banking industry with recommendations on whether and how to differentiate between SMEs and urban professionals
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Focal Questions: Which impact will smart homes have on the insurance industry and how must insurances react in order to stay competitive and mitigate risks?
Key Challenges:
Smart home products will change the way consumers interact with appliances in and around their homes
It is uncertain how these products may expose new risks (e.g. data security risks, physical risks or liability issues)
Our client wanted to investigate these risks and analyze which insurance products could be offered in order to mitigate dangers of smart homes
Outcome:
Comprehensive and detailed report on risks associated with smart home products
Portfolio strategy development based on the insights generated in the report
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Focal Questions: What will be the role and the scope of operations of European central banks in 15 years?
Key Challenges:
Sovereign debt melt-down, Brexit, EURO sceptics, structural reforms, and emerging global power of China characterize some of the key challenges in the European market environment
The financial sector faces disruptive technology shifts and new market players
Outcome:
Development of plausible scenarios on the future role of European central banks
Derivation of implications for strategies of European central banks in regard to social and macroeconomic changes
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What is the impact of technological disruption on infrastructure?
Key Challenges:
Numerous mega trends reshape the way infrastructure is used, where it is needed and what kind of infrastructure is expected, leading to increased complexity and uncertainty
Disruptive technologies open up new possibilities and business models in the infrastructure sector both in developed and emerging markets
Given these shifts, infrastructure investors require new tools to assess the attractiveness of infrastructure investments
Outcome:
Identification of main driving forces on the attractiveness of infrastructure classes in emerging and developed markets
Understanding of the underlying technological disruption and gaining deeper insights into key players and investment opportunities
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Focal Questions: How will wealth management for high net-worth individuals and financial intermediaries look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Banking is disrupted by new technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence and Blockchain) and faces the threat of new entrants from the technology sector
Client needs are changing, new customers (e.g. millennials) gain importance and expect new and innovative ways of contact
The roles within Banking, e.g. intermediaries vs. private wealth, are shifting and it is unclear which roles traditional banks will take in the future
Outcome:
Four distinct scenarios on where the private wealth management market is heading and which implications this has on our client and further market stakeholders
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Type of Customer: International Financial Institutions
Focal Questions: What will a successful bank look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Powerful forces are reshaping the banking industry:
Shifting customer expectations
Rising FinTechs
Evolution of Blockchain
Changing regulatory requirements
Changing demographics
Shifting Economics
Many have predicted the fall of the traditional bank, as disruptive new entrants win share by offering a better customer experience through new products and channels.
Outcome:
Four distinct scenarios on how the future of banking operations will look like with key implications for stakeholders
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will be the context for private banking in 2025?
Key Challenges:
Client needs are changing due to external factors such as data protection issues, adaptations to the consumer protection law as well as cyber security issues resulting in a change in how clients distribute their assets
Regulatory issues and political challenges are changing the market landscape
Outcome:
Four distinct scenario describing the future of private banking in 2025 with a focus on Switzerland
Derive implications for the private banking sector for the short, medium and long term
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
09. Project Reference: Blockchain
Topic: Future of Blockchain
Industry: Financial Services
Type of Customer: Financial Institutions / Investors
Focal Questions: What is the future of blockchain?
Key Challenges:
Given that blockchain is a secure digital record of transactions, transfer of ownership and financial transactions will change
The rise of the technology reshapes the banking industry, along with regulatory issues regarding privacy protection and user trust
Outcome:
Four distinct on where the Blockchain market is heading and how the technology will be used in the future
Deloitte-made A.I.-tool to track scenario likability and to derive valuable information for strategic decision-makers beyond project timeframe
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Continuous scenario monitoring with AI-powered tool Gnosis
10. Project Reference: End of the Low Interest Era
Topic: Low Interest Era
Industry: Financial Services
Type of Customer: Financial Institutions / Investors
Focal Questions: In which ways may the low interest era play out? How might this impact the M&A market?
Key Challenges:
Implications of the low / negative interests are controversially discussed and the consequences and future development are uncertain
Decisions of the ECB are directly impacted by economic development globally as well as directly impact the global economy
Outcome:
Determine broad overview of projected trends and drivers
Develop deep dive characteristics of the financial market in a low interest eras
Derive implications for the M&A market
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
11. Project Reference: Future of Corporate Insurance
Topic: The Future of Corporate Insurance in Scandinavia
Industry: Insurance
Type of Customer: Danish Insurance Company
Focal Questions: What will the corporate non-life insurance marketplace look like in Scandinavia in 2030?
Key Challenges:
The Scandinavian insurance market is in a decline for the last years and companies are struggling to achieve high margins, especially in the corporate non-life insurance market
The Scandinavian insurance market is very conservative when it comes to new technologies, trends and customer demands while disruptive innovations happen along the whole value chain
It fears external entrants that might outpace current players in terms of technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence) and customer nearness
The future role of brokers is unknown and it is questionable whether intermediaries will be needed in the future
Outcome:
Actionable items for the corporate strategy drawn from four distinct scenarios how the market could develop in the future
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Investment landscape analysis
Wind-tunneling of existing strategy along defined scenarios
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Strategy baselining
12. Project Reference: Retail Banking in Spain
Topic: The Future of Retail Banking in Spain
Industry: Banking
Type of Customer: Retail Banking in Spain
Focal Questions: How will the retail banking industry in Spain look like in the next 10 to 15 years?
Key Challenges:
The retail banking sector in Spain is transforming due to rising digitization, regulatory complexity, emerging non-traditional players and margin pressures
Along with an aging population, millennials increasingly become important retail bank customers who are tech-savvy and request innovative, yet personalized banking experiences
Even though customers’ basic financial needs may not transform much, the nature of interaction with retail banks will inevitably become more digital, thus triggering new competition and disruption along the retail banking value chain
Outcome:
Development of four distinct yet plausible future scenarios for retail banking in Spain in face of the upcoming 10-15 years
Derivation of strategic implications regarding customers, non-traditional and incumbent players
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
13. Project Reference: Cooperative Banking
Topic: Future of Cooperative Banking in 2030
Industry: Banking
Type of Customer: Banking Association
Focal Questions: What could the future of Cooperative Banking look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Technology and Artificial Intelligence represent an opportunity and a challenge for Cooperative Banking at the same time
Client requirements, such as personal closeness to a bank, are subject to change and demand strategic adjustment
Uncertainty about regulations and the banking environment
Outcome:
Identification of potential key drivers in 2030
Deriving ideas of possible future developments in banking
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Sector agnostic
Overview
Protectionist agendas, demographic development and sustainability concerns are example for driving forces that influence business environments across all industries. Firms need to understand these trends to be able to take appropriate measures to be prepared for the future. The Center for the Long View regularly provides insights on sector-agnostic influences and develops reasonable but yet distinctive scenarios of future business environments. Some of the questions we looked into include what the trade relationships between North American countries will look like in 2030, what the society and economy in Norway will look like in 2030 and how Great Britain and Europe develop after the Brexit.
01. Project Reference: European Cyber Security Landscape
Topic: Future of Cyber Security Landscape
Industry: Security
Type of Customer: German Political Foundation
Focal Questions: What are the critical risks for the Cyber Security Landscape in 2025?
Key Challenges:
Technology, internet anonymity, and the media are becoming instruments for the disruption of public security and stability
Multilateral responses from the state, security agencies, the police and military should be taken into consideration
Risk of vulnerability of the German society to manipulation and shocks
Outcome:
Development of future scenarios to derive implications for risk prevention and national security regulations
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategy baselining
Development of new robust / dynamic strategy
02. Project Reference: Manufacturing in Germany
Topic: Future of German Manufacturing
Industry: Manufacturing (incl. Automotive)
Type of Customer: Manufacturing Companies
Focal Questions: How will the German manufacturing industry look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Digitalization is changing the manufacturing industries and industrial companies need to adapt
Customers increasingly expect software and analytics capabilities from manufacturers
Germany is popular for manufacturing extensions amongst international players
Outcome:
Identification of drivers and trends in the manufacturing industry as well as trends from other industries with an effect on manufacturing
Development of scenarios for the future of German manufacturing in 2030
Derivation of implications for various stakeholders and regulators
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
03. Project Reference: Migration
Topic: The Future of Migration
Industry: Sector Agnostic
Type of Customer: Development Agency
Focal Questions: What will the future of migration look like and what does this mean for the global economical, political and social climate?
Key Challenges:
The global community face a variety of humanitarian challenges, including the increasing escalation in the Middle East, global climate change, the threat of global terrorism and the growth of the income gap
The degree of migration is as high as never before and it is uncertain how political systems and societies will react to this development
Outcome:
Four distinct yet plausible future scenarios which implications the increasing migration could have and what this means for societies all over the world
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Topic: Future Trade Relationships between N-American Countries
Industry: Sector Agnostic
Type of Customer: Deloitte
Focal Questions: What will the trade relationships between North American countries look like in 2030, and what will the impact on their respective economies be?
Key Challenges:
Political change, protectionist agendas, and a growing row over the agreement’s imbalance of benefits endanger the continued existence of NAFTA
Disruptive technologies, new digital business models, and changing social values also question the validity of the existing trade agreement
Outcome:
Development of future scenarios to derive strategic implications of possible trade models on North American economies
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
05. Project Reference: European Economies after Brexit
Topic: The Future of Brexit
Industry: Sector Agnostic
Type of Customer: Deloitte
Focal Questions: How will Great Britain and Europe develop after the Brexit?
Key Challenges:
The exit of Great Britain from the European Union will bring economical, political and social challenges
The environment is highly volatile and unpredictable, the deal talks were long and uncoordinated, and neither politics nor European economies were able to predict the ending of the deal talks
Outcome:
Four distinct scenarios on how the Brexit could be executed and which impact this has on stakeholders, more specifically businesses operating in and with GB
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will the society and economy in Norway look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Norway is known internationally for its high level of social support, a high standard of living, and trust in one another and the government. However, the country faces challenges from its exposure to current and future trends. What will the society and economy in Norway look like in 2030? What are the resulting opportunities and risks?
Outcome:
Four distinct yet plausible scenarios on the future society and economy of Norway incl. implications for market participants on a macro level
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Focal Questions: What will the society and economy in Germany look like in 2035?
Key Challenges:
Germany is in the middle of an uncertain process of change. What will the society and the economy look like in the future? What will be the challenges that politicians must find answers to? Most importantly, how can these changes be shaped in a pro-active way?
Outcome:
Four distinct yet plausible scenarios on the future society and economy of Germany incl. implications for market participants on a macro level
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Strategic planning in the life science and health care market is a must to ensure that high R&D investments will amortize. Increasing digital applications, new opportunities of big data use, regulative forces and new competitors entering the market, however, make the outlook highly uncertain. The Center for the Long View guided several companies of the Life Science & Health Care industry in developing different future scenarios and in identifying dynamic strategies that promise future success. Among the questions we answered are how the dialysis market will look like in 2030, how healthcare data will be used strategically in the connected healthcare ecosystem to generate value in 2027 and how new future opportunities and threats will impact the Agribusiness of a big pharmaceutical company in 2030.
01. Project Reference: Relaxant Drinks Market
Topic: Current Trends in Lactulose
Industry: Relaxant Drinks Market
Type of Customer: International Sugar Producer
Focal Questions: What are current trends in the lactulose market?
Key Challenges:
Our client evaluated the entrance into a new market of relaxant drinks with its new product, in doubt whether there is enough market potential
It was unsure which customers should be approached and whether the product should be marketed as medicine or a consumer goods product
Outcome:
Deep dive analyses into lactulose and identification of current trends and future developments
Investigation of adjacent markets to evaluate right market entrance approach
Focal Questions: How will healthcare data be used strategically in the connected healthcare ecosystem to generate value in 2027?
Key Challenges:
With both traditional and non-traditional players entering the connected care space and building comprehensive data platforms and remote capabilities, there is greater importance in recalibrating the client’s strategy in order to best position the firm for the future.
Key Questions:
How will health data usage and storage be regulated?
What are technological possibilities?
Who will collect and use health data (e.g. the role of traditional vs. non-traditional med-tech players)?
What are customer expectations regarding the use of health data?
Outcome:
Four plausible, yet distinct future scenarios on how healthcare data is shared, which technological possibilities will prevail and what customers expect from companies interacting in the healthcare industry
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
03. Project Reference: Dialysis Sector
Topic: The Future of Dialysis in 2030
Industry: Healthcare
Type of Customer: International Healthcare Company
Focal Questions: How will the dialysis market look like in 2030?
Key Challenges:
Our client was facing a multitude of new entrants into the dialysis market which invested a lot into R&D to position themselves as serious competitors
The dialysis market is highly uncertain due to the digitalization of patient data and the shift of demographics towards more elderlies
The variety of dialysis usages, e.g. dialysis centers, dialysis machines for homes and dialysis machines for emergency units, makes it difficult to identify the right market positioning and to set a future robust strategy
Outcome:
Set of identified and prioritized (in terms of impact and uncertainty) drivers that influence the future of dialysis
Comprehensible scenarios of the future of dialysis in 2030
Assessment of mega trends in light of identified scenarios
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
Topic: The Future of Data in the Connected Healthcare Ecosystem
Industry: MedTech
Type of Customer: Global MedTech Company
Focal Questions: How will health data be used strategically in the connected healthcare ecosystem to generate value in 2027?
Key Challenges:
Traditional and non-traditional healthcare stakeholders are racing to develop connected care solutions; each group faces unique challenges and opportunities
In addition, there are an increasing number of disruptors in the connected care ecosystem in categories relevant to Medtronic C&I
Outcome:
Development of future scenarios on connected healthcare ecosystems to derive strategic implications for our client
Key Deliverables:
AI-powered analysis of market, trends and drivers
Identification of critical uncertainties through interviews and surveys
Strategic implications across business dimensions for C-level team
Development of plausible scenario models in workshop format
