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20 juil. 2022
4 minute read

The European hydrogen economy - taking stock and looking ahead

An outlook until 2030

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Clean hydrogen investment activity is surging
54 GW

Project announcements for clean hydrogen production have ramped up in Europe with planned capacity reaching 54 GW and 5.2 MtH2/year by 2030

85 %

Electrolyzers will predominate at 85 percent of installed capacity (+4 GW/ year), but methane reformers + CCS will produce 25 percent of volumes (1.3 MtH2) in 2030

75 %

75 percent of hydrogen supply is centered around the North Sea, with GW-scale “Hydrogen Valleys” creating hydrogen ecosystems that help spawn a multitude of smaller supply and end-use projects

 

Nevertheless, a supply gap is emerging

 

  • Announced projects are not yet enough to reach all targets; in particular, neither EU production target for 2030 has been met
  • However, based on observed trends, we forecast European clean hydrogen supply will reach some 170 GW and 20 MtH2 by 2030
  • This implies a 10 MtH2* supply gap against potential demand of 30 MtH2 in 2030, the volume needed to ensure the EU energy sector remains on its path to net zero emissions according to our Hydrogen4EU study. This makes increasing imports from outside Europe and encouraging a faster ramp-up of local production even more vital
  • Achieving the forecasted 170 GW and 20 MtH2 bears its own challenges and opportunities: almost half a trillion euros of investments will be needed to sustain a capital-intensive ramp-up of clean hydrogen production in Europe 
  • A 10 MtH2  supply gap could lead to a short-term increase in prices above market-clearing levels, encouraging new entrants or incumbents to increase their supply and thus reducing prices in the long term, provided regulators set the right economic conditions for an acceleration of supply projects
Overall, the EU H2 project pipeline is slated to deliver 36 GW of electrolyzer capacity but only 3.1 Mt of renewable H2
Bridging the supply gap will require reducing costs and establishing a level playing field between technologies

  • The production costs of clean hydrogen fall between 3 and 6 €/kgH2
  • Financial support and regulatory action is crucial to provide sufficient hydrogen at an affordable price

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