M&A Trends Pulse Survey
New insights from our midyear check-in with M&A leaders
Our 2026 M&A Trends Pulse Survey shows that while market volatility continues to adversely affect M&A activity, there are still significant and latent opportunities for bold dealmakers to realize value. Explore updated M&A Trends data on US mega deals, middle-market opportunities, and new insights on cross-border M&A strategies being used by some corporate and private equity investors.
2026 M&A Trends Pulse Survey: 3 key observations
1. Intensifying volatility: With shifting trade environments, including tariffs, and rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts, volatility has become more a norm for US financial and M&A markets:
- Inflation (CPI) rose from 2.4% in January and February 2026 to 3.8% in April.
- US equity markets and corporate earnings have been strong thus far in 2026.
- Headwinds include declines in business leader and consumer confidence, a flat US M&A aggregate volume trend over the past few years and caution expressed by M&A leaders in our surveys since 2025.
Given the volatility and headwinds, some M&A organizations may favor hesitance or a pause in dealmaking for a time. However, the new data implies a better and bolder course of action for disciplined dealmakers.
2. Realizing value from volatility and cross-border M&A activity: As noted in the second half of 2025, Q1 this year also saw very large and “mega deals” accounting for more than 40% of total US aggregate value while the aggregate volume trend remained essentially flat. As such, the opportunity for proactive acquirers in the middle and smaller markets remains attractive.
Cross-border interest in foreign targets
"Looking ahead, how do you expext your company's/firm's interest in acquiring foreign targets to change over the next 12 months?"
In addition, only 20% of survey respondents reported ”significant” interest in pursuing cross-border transactions in the months ahead, with 45% "somewhat" interested and 35% neutral or even pessimistic (anticipating no change or a decline in their organizations’ dealmaking).
3. A new cross-border dealmaking roadmap: Survey responses revealed the current strategic and geographic trends shaping cross-border M&A activity, offering a roadmap for other corporate and private equity investors. For example, growth and expansion were the most frequently mentioned strategic motivations for cross-border activity, followed by financial optimization and risk diversification.
Distribution of cross-border interest by primary motivation
"What is driving your company's/firm's increase/decrease of interest in foreign targets? Please select top 3."
Geographically, corporate M&A leaders cited a fairly short list of target countries, whereas private equity investors’ targeting was noticeably broader, including both developed and developing markets.
M&A Trends January 2026 outlook: A tale of two markets
The ongoing volatility during 2025 illustrates that the need to “pivot” remains a priority for corporate and PE dealmakers as a new year gets underway. Our survey data, M&A activity trends, and overall market conditions combine to indicate dealmakers may see interesting new opportunities.
More than 80% of private equity and corporate dealmakers expressed optimism that their organizations would transact a greater volume of deals, with greater aggregate deal value, over the next 12 months than in 2025.
Volume expectations
Question: Do you expect the average number of deals that your company closes to increase or decrease over the next 12 months?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500, 2023 n=1,500
Value expectations
Question: Do you anticipate that the total aggregate value of your company/firm’s deals (mergers,acquisitions and divestitures) will increase or decrease in the coming year versus the current year?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500, 2023 n=1,500
For expected deal volume, the response “increase somewhat” jumped 17 points from last year, while the answer “increase significantly” fell almost as much, by 16 points. This shows that even amid general optimism, expectations are tempered for the degree of increase in deal activity.
Tempered expectations
Question: Do you expect the average number of deals that your company closes to increase or decrease over the next 12 months?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500, 2023 n=1,500
The US S&P 500 equity index rose 15.8% in 2025,1 while the Nasdaq added 19.6%.2 At the same time, actual M&A deal value in the second half of 2025 increased significantly compared to the first half of the year.
A second-half value rebound
2025 M&A aggregate value, quarterly ($USD)
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, LLC – S&P Capital IQ, data generated on January 8, 2026
Other important signals:
- Three 25-basis-point cuts in the federal funds effective rate partly buoyed the M&A market in the second half of 2025.
- Inflation (Consumer Price Index, or CPI) was held in check at just 2.7% in December 2025.
- Unemployment metrics weren’t enough to overcome the slightly rising CPI.
- Consumer and business leader confidence both declined during 2025, a trend that emerged in the spring but continued late into the year.
1. S&P 500® | S&P Dow Jones Indices, accessed January 8, 2026.
2. NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Latest Quotes, Charts, Data & News | Nasdaq, accessed January 8, 2026.
One-third (33%) of total US deal value in 2025 was driven by only 20 very large transactions. We can conclude from this that there will be ample opportunities for small- and medium-size deals for corporate and PE buyers and sellers who are prepared and bold enough to act in 2026.
Overall value often driven meaningfully by very large deals but particularly so in 2025
Top 20 deals' share of total value by year
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, LLC – S&P Capital IQ, data generated on January 7, 2026
Pivoting and agility are becoming necessary competencies and table stakes for M&A leaders.
Pivoting even more a norm than it was in 2024
Question: How has your company’s/firm’s deal making and targeting adjusted in the past 1-2 years to account for shifting sectors and priorities?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500
Dive deeper into what these findings mean for 2026
Three additional M&A market trends to take note of in 2026
Diving into three areas of particular interest for the new year: shifts in alternative deal financing trends, increased digital transformation for M&A, and new cross-border transaction trends.
Adam Reilly
