M&A Trends Survey: A tale of two markets
Insights for driving high-value M&A deals in 2026
Activity in the first half of 2025 differed sharply from activity in the second half, and we expect continued volatility in 2026. Our 12th annual M&A Trends report details what’s driving uncertainty, and importantly, what M&A dealmakers can do to seize on the high-value opportunities this market provides.
Five key insights that can drive M&A value in 2026
The ongoing volatility during 2025 illustrates that the need to “pivot” remains a priority for corporate and PE dealmakers as a new year gets underway. Our survey data, M&A activity trends, and overall market conditions combine to indicate dealmakers may see interesting new opportunities.
More than 80% of private equity and corporate dealmakers expressed optimism that their organizations would transact a greater volume of deals, with greater aggregate deal value, over the next 12 months than in 2025.
Volume expectations
Question: Do you expect the average number of deals that your company closes to increase or decrease over the next 12 months?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500, 2023 n=1,500
Value expectations
Question: Do you anticipate that the total aggregate value of your company/firm’s deals (mergers,acquisitions and divestitures) will increase or decrease in the coming year versus the current year?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500, 2023 n=1,500
For expected deal volume, the response “increase somewhat” jumped 17 points from last year, while the answer “increase significantly” fell almost as much, by 16 points. This shows that even amid general optimism, expectations are tempered for the degree of increase in deal activity.
Tempered expectations
Question: Do you expect the average number of deals that your company closes to increase or decrease over the next 12 months?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500, 2023 n=1,500
The US S&P 500 equity index rose 15.8% in 2025,1 while the Nasdaq added 19.6%.2 At the same time, actual M&A deal value in the second half of 2025 increased significantly compared to the first half of the year.
A second-half value rebound
2025 M&A aggregate value, quarterly ($USD)
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, LLC – S&P Capital IQ, data generated on January 8, 2026
Other important signals:
- Three 25-basis-point cuts in the federal funds effective rate partly buoyed the M&A market in the second half of 2025.
- Inflation (Consumer Price Index, or CPI) was held in check at just 2.7% in December 2025.
- Unemployment metrics weren’t enough to overcome the slightly rising CPI.
- Consumer and business leader confidence both declined during 2025, a trend that emerged in the spring but continued late into the year.
1. S&P 500® | S&P Dow Jones Indices, accessed January 8, 2026.
2. NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Latest Quotes, Charts, Data & News | Nasdaq, accessed January 8, 2026.
One-third (33%) of total US deal value in 2025 was driven by only 20 very large transactions. We can conclude from this that there will be ample opportunities for small- and medium-size deals for corporate and PE buyers and sellers who are prepared and bold enough to act in 2026.
Overall value often driven meaningfully by very large deals but particularly so in 2025
Top 20 deals' share of total value by year
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, LLC – S&P Capital IQ, data generated on January 7, 2026
Pivoting and agility are becoming necessary competencies and table stakes for M&A leaders.
Pivoting even more a norm than it was in 2024
Question: How has your company’s/firm’s deal making and targeting adjusted in the past 1-2 years to account for shifting sectors and priorities?
Source: Deloitte M&A Trends Survey, 2025 n=1,500, 2024 n=1,500
Dive deeper into what these findings mean for 2026
Three additional M&A market trends to take note of in 2026
Diving into three areas of particular interest for the new year: shifts in alternative deal financing trends, increased digital transformation for M&A, and new cross-border transaction trends.
Get our full analysis of these key trends
What to expect from the M&A market in 2026
2025 was a volatile and unpredictable year for the M&A market. Trade and monetary policy, mixed economic metrics, and less frequently published employment and inflation data all contributed to the uncertainty and brought forth both challenges and opportunities.
The evidence suggests 2026 has the potential for significant opportunities. Dealmakers have a chance to realize value from a newly apparent dual market, and they should consider intensifying their focus on the middle and smaller deal markets. Large acquirers should do so as well, while also remaining attuned to further mega-deal opportunities like the ones that characterized late 2025. Pivots around financing, targeting, tax planning, technology, and cross-border transactions will be even more important for 2026.
Adam Reilly
