In an era defined by heightened customer expectations driven by online shopping, the automotive industry faces the increasing need to deliver not just quality vehicles, but also a seamless shop-and-buy experience. In a recent survey conducted by Deloitte,¹ visibility to order status and accurate estimated time of arrival (ETA) dates are recognized as critical components for building trust, driving customer engagement, and differentiating original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) within a competitive marketplace.
A previous study conducted as part of our market research identified several critical factors influencing consumer decisions to disengage during their vehicle purchasing process. Notably, the findings indicate that up to 20% of global customers walk away due to the unavailability of their preferred vehicle, highlighting a significant disconnect between inventory and actual customer demand.
Figure 1. Customer dealership walkaway [ES1] factors
Source: 2024 Deloitte Consumer Loyalty Survey; 2,500 participants and ~1,500 respondents to the question: Why did you decide not to purchase from the [brand] dealer?
Figure 1 shows why potential customers leave dealerships without buying. The walkaway factors include availability (10%–20%) and lead time (3%–6%) as key indicators.
When vehicles are not immediately available, customers can work with dealerships to determine the next expected delivery date for their chosen trim and color, based on the manufacturing plant’s build-to-stock production pipeline. To bridge the gap between limited inventory and customer preferences—especially for premium, customized vehicles—dealerships can offer a build-to-order (BTO) process, enabling customers to design their ideal vehicle. Research indicates that customers who opt for BTO are willing to wait for their purchase, especially when overall delivery times are kept short.
Figure 2. Comparison of willingness to wait (W2W) across years (% acceptance)
Source: 2024 Deloitte Consumer Loyalty Survey; 2,500 participants and ~1,500 respondents to the question: Why did you decide not to purchase from the [brand] dealer?
Figure 2 shows the willingness of customers in the US to wait for BTO vehicles. Willingness to wait drops significantly after a 14-day wait period, highlighting a strong preference for shorter wait times.
These insights collectively underscore opportunities for OEMs, dealers, and manufacturers to not only better align stock with market preferences but also streamline order management processes and enhance transparency throughout the purchasing experience.
Today’s customers are accustomed to real-time updates in nearly every aspect of their lives, thanks to e-commerce platforms. When purchasing a vehicle, often a significant financial and emotional investment, customers expect the same level of transparency. Providing clear, timely updates on a vehicle’s production status is no longer a luxury; it is a strategic imperative.
Key benefits of order status visibility include:
While order status visibility is critical, customers also want to know when to expect their new vehicle. Accurate ETAs enable customers to plan and purchase with confidence and empower dealerships to optimize inventory and resource allocation. Figure 3 displays the benchmarks used in North American deliveries, based on Deloitte analysis.
Figure 3[ES1] . North American deliveries, imported and domestic
Source: Deloitte analysis
Challenges of traditional ETA models
To address these challenges, leading automotive organizations are turning to advanced analytics and machine learning (ML) to transform ETA predictions from a reactive process to a proactive, data-driven capability established by a foundation of data products from the organization’s supply chain ecosystem.
How machine learning enhances ETA accuracy
Sample ML features for ETA optimization
The integration of production status visibility and reliable ETA models delivers benefits for both customers and automotive OEMs:
At Deloitte, we help automotive clients harness the power of digital technologies and advanced analytics to reimagine the end-to-end customer journey. By embedding transparency and predictive intelligence into production and delivery processes, organizations can improve customer satisfaction and operational excellence. Predictive models are foundational to the future of the automotive order-to-delivery experience. Leveraging data products and machine learning across a complex automotive supply chain empowers OEMs to enhance value chain efficiency and position themselves for sustained success in a rapidly evolving industry.
¹ Bobby Stephens et al., 2024 Consumer Loyalty Survey, Deloitte, October 1, 2024.