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Q2 2025 emerging retail and consumer trends

In this report, we explore how modernizing supply chains and adopting customer-centric strategies can help companies better navigate tariff challenges and deepen customer loyalty.

As the trade landscape shifts with the introduction of new tariffs, retail and consumer goods businesses may face uncertainty related to cost, profit margins, and growing complexity across global supply chains. 

To stay competitive, some companies are prioritizing two key strategies: investing in technology to modernize and increase the agility of their supply chains, and adopting consumer-focused approaches in pricing, promotion, and assortment planning. By combining supply chain innovation with data-driven marketing and value-driven pricing, businesses can better navigate uncertainty and strengthen customer loyalty.

Download our full report to learn more about these strategies and explore examples in the industry.

Trend 1: Supply chain modernization in an evolving marketplace  

Retailers are assessing various alternatives to offset the potentially higher costs associated with tariffs. Some are requesting suppliers to absorb a portion of  any increased costs, while others are exploring alternative production locations to mitigate risk. These actions reflect a shift from traditional vendor negotiations to more frequent, and sometimes contentious, efforts to preserve margins and supply chain stability in an uncertain trade environment.

Companies are also placing an emphasis on accurately anticipating shifts in consumer demand using AI-powered predictive analytics to enable smarter decisions on inventory, sourcing, and pricing. By prioritizing digital investment, organizations can build more responsive supply chains, manage risks better, and maintain competitiveness.

  • One global active wear brand has requested a 3.5% cost reduction from its vendors. Many of the brand’s suppliers are located in countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, where profit margins are already relatively thin.

  • According to publicly available data, Macy’s is taking a multi-layered approach to manage the potential impact of new tariffs. The company has been actively working to reduce its reliance on Chinese imports, particularly for its private-label brands.

  • Williams Sonoma aims to move more of its production back to the United States, which is already the company’s second largest source of inventory, accounting for about 18% of its goods.

  • Alongside shifting the manufacturing location of its private-label products, a large wholesaler also pulled orders forward, holding 10% higher inventories vs. historical average. Other major players with warehousing capabilities, such as Amazon, have adopted similar actions.

  • One American fashion brand plans to allocate 5% of its 2026 revenue to technology and AI initiatives, nearly double its 2025 allocation, aiming to improve inventory planning and offset any volatility.

Trend 2: Delivering value while preserving trust 


In response to rising consumer concern over price uncertainty, many retailers have pledged to bear part of any potential price increases associated with tariffs while pursuing value-driven strategies elsewhere, reflecting a broader industry effort to shield consumers from tightening margins.

Resilient assortment planning has emerged as a strategy for some retailers as they try to manage impacts from tariffs. While other retailers are prioritizing private labels as a strategy to build more price-stable product mixes.

According to a recent study, surveyed respondents suggest that among other actions, retailers can maintain trust amidst potential price changes with two key actions: 1) clearly communicate any price changes, and 2) offer increased value through loyalty programs and promotions. Some brands have already employed a combination of these strategies, rebranding promotions as pre-tariff sales to encourage immediate purchases.

  • As of June 13, Macy’s has committed to absorbing necessary costs to avoid hurting sales. While their strong first quarter performance showed few signs of price adjustment related to tariffs, “limited” price increases may begin to appear.

  •  Home Depot’s executive vice president of merchandising announced that the company intends to “maintain pricing across our portfolio” though it may result in products disappearing from shelves.

  • Across the industry, resounding sentiment reflects Target’s statement that raising prices for consumers will be the “very last resort.” Instead, retailers acknowledge they have many levers to use in navigating the effects of tariffs and their options are more nuanced than “raise-or-absorb.”

  • TJX CEO Ernie Herrman expressed confidence in managing possible impacts tariff from tariffs through effective assortment planning: “The good thing with our flexibility is, we will just take advantage of an adjacent category.”

  • Target cited that they will be committing to reevaluating assortment decisions, diversifying production origin, and adjusting order timing and prices as possible levers in mitigating potential price increases.

  • Discount grocer Aldi touts store-owned brands as key to maintaining visibility and control amid economic uncertainty. 90% of Aldi’s products are store-owned and their chief commercial officer contended only 4% of their assortment has been “impacted by tariffs.”

Conclusion

There’s no universal approach to navigating the potential challenges resulting from tariffs and market volatility. The most effective strategies are highly dependent on a company’s industry, size, supply chain structure, and risk tolerance. While investments in AI, predictive analytics, and digital tools can provide significant advantages in agility and decision-making, these must be complemented by sourcing agility, collaborative vendor negotiations, supply chain diversification, inventory management, and domestic manufacturing where feasible.

It's important for every company to weigh its own unique circumstances and capabilities to determine the right mix of strategies across assortment, pricing, and promotion. The landscape of tariffs is rapidly changing, so success within this environment will come from a flexible, multi-faceted approach, balancing innovation with operational pragmatism in response to the evolving realities of global trade.

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