Deloitte: Holiday Spending Declines Amid Economic Uncertainty

New York, Oct. 15, 2025

Key takeaways

• Surveyed consumers plan to spend an average of $1,595 this season, down 10% year-over-year. Respondents expect to reduce their spending on both retail goods (-14% year-over-year) and experiences (-6% year-over-year).
• Economic uncertainty is high: More than three-quarters (77%) of surveyed consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026 — the least optimistic outlook since Deloitte started tracking economic sentiment in 1997.
• Nearly all generations and income groups surveyed plan to pull back this season. Only Gen X shoppers appear to be in a slightly better position as they plan to increase their spending by 3% this year.
• To stretch their budgets, many surveyed consumers plan to exhibit value-seeking behavior by searching for deals (89%), trading down on brands and retailers (77%), reusing or recycling items (73%), and making DIY gifts (49%).
• Underscoring the importance of being together, 1 in 4 consumers surveyed plan to host a holiday celebration and spend an average of $252.

Why this matters
For 40 years, Deloitte has studied consumer behavior and sentiment ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. Although holiday shopping has evolved throughout this time - from bustling malls and paper ads to seamless omnichannel options, digital discovery, and AI-driven tools - consumers remain committed to celebrating the season with friends and family. Deloitte’s “2025 Holiday Retail Survey” explores consumers’ holiday shopping intentions, revealing that many plan to spend cautiously.

Holiday shoppers celebrate the season with mindful spending
Deloitte’s Holiday Shopping Confidence Index (HSCI) measures consumers’ confidence and capacity to spend during the season and signals that many holiday shoppers will adopt a more restrained spending approach than in recent years. Overall, surveyed consumers plan to spend an average of $1,595, down 10% year-over-year, with the average number of gifts purchased this year staying relatively steady at eight versus nine in 2024.

• More than half of surveyed consumers are concerned about the economy: 57% of respondents expect the economy to weaken in 2026, the least optimistic outlook since 1997, and 56% of respondents are concerned about a potential recession in the next six months.
• These economic pressures appear to be pushing younger generations in particular to pull back on spending. Spending among Gen Z shoppers is expected to decline 34% year-over-year and by 13% year-over-year for millennials. Gen Z shoppers are also more anxious than others about higher prices this season (62% of Gen Z, versus 56% others). Only Gen X shoppers plan to spend more (up 3% year-over-year).
• After rising for two years, all surveyed income groups plan to reduce their spending. Higher-income earners (those making $100k per year or more), plan to spend about the same on experiences as last year, while scaling back on retail purchases.
• To maximize their holiday budgets, surveyed shoppers plan to cut back on non-gift purchases like hosting, clothing and décor, a decline of 22% year-over-year.
• To stretch their holiday dollars, 7 in 10 respondents plan to engage in three or more value-seeking behaviors. Women (78%) are significantly more likely than men (58%) to do so. Generationally, millennials (95%) are most likely to seek deals.
• Most consumers surveyed plan to seek out deals (89%), which includes shopping during promotional weeks (75%), and adding items to wish lists and waiting for deals (49%). They also plan to trade down on brands and retailers (77%), regift items they don’t like or want (52%), and even make their own gifts (49%).
• One-quarter (26%) of consumers surveyed plan to use loyalty points (versus 20% in 2024) to further stretch their dollars and ease holiday expenses.  

— Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. Retail and Consumer Products sector leader, Deloitte

Savvy shoppers take advantage of promotions and tech
As the holiday shopping season continues to pull forward, surveyed consumers continue to leverage promotional weeks and digital tools to make the most of their holiday dollars.

• Two-thirds (68%) of respondents plan to use digital tools for their holiday shopping including to compare prices and products. Social media leads holiday inspiration with 59% of those surveyed planning to use it in their shopping. Planned use of GenAI doubled over last year with 33% of shoppers planning to use it.
• The holiday season continues to start earlier, but this year is expected to peak later as half of holiday shoppers surveyed say they’re spreading out purchases to manage the budget. One-quarter (24%) of shoppers’ budgets is likely to be exhausted by the end of October — marking the highest amount observed in the last five years. Traffic is likely to peak between late November and early December.
• More than two-thirds (70%) of holiday shoppers who responded to the survey plan to shop during Thanksgiving week, which is similar to last year, but up 23 percentage points over the last five years.
• Among those surveyed, those earning $100-$199k per year are most likely (77%) to participate in Thanksgiving week events.
• Surveyed holiday shoppers plan to spend most of their budget at big box retailers (39%) and online retailers (36%) as they seek out value. However, more gifts are expected to be purchased online (56%) compared to in-store (44%).

Shoppers make gift lists for their loved ones — and for themselves
Consumers appear to be closely considering what goes on their gift lists. At the same time, hosting gatherings with family and friends remains a priority for many, with a focus on creating memorable moments without overspending.

• Nearly three-quarters (72%) of consumers surveyed say wish lists make holiday shopping easier for everyone, and 64% like getting gifts from a wish list because they are certain they will use them.
• Among those surveyed, gift cards are on par with clothing and accessories as this year’s top categories for gift giving, while fewer shoppers plan to gift electronics. Meanwhile, nearly half of all consumers surveyed (47%) plan to give experiential gifts like restaurant, event and spa outings, demonstrating how consumers prioritize spending time together.
• Among respondents, 44% will consider purchasing luxury goods as gifts this holiday season, however one-quarter (25%) of shoppers surveyed may buy pre-owned luxury items instead.
• Only one-third (32%) of consumers surveyed are certain they want to self-gift this season. While self-gifting is more popular among younger generations (46% of Gen Z and 41% of millennials), they plan to do so with private labels or dupes more often.
• Three in 10 respondents plan to buy American-made products this holiday season, and this sentiment is highest among Baby Boomers (38%). While half of all consumers surveyed (54%) say price matters more than where a product is made.
• While holiday gatherings continue to be a big part of celebrating the season (1 in 4 respondents plan to host), 48% are concerned with the cost. As a result, the average budget for a holiday gathering is down 3% year-over-year to $252, and only 43% are willing to pay more for items and services that make hosting easier (versus 70% in 2024).

— Brian McCarthy, principal, Retail Strategy Leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP

Deloitte’s “2025 Holiday Retail Survey” is based on a survey of 4,270 consumers conducted online by an independent research company and fielded between Aug. 27 and Sept. 5.

Connect with us on LinkedIn @NatalieMartini and @BrianCMcCarthy.