Deloitte: Holiday Retail Sales Expected to Increase 2.9% to 3.4%

NEW YORK, Sept. 10, 2025 — Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 2.9% and 3.4% in 2025, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.

Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2024, holiday sales grew by 4.2% in the same period.

E-commerce is expected to grow at a healthy pace of between 7% and 9% year-over-year during the 2025–2026 holiday season, thereby contributing to overall retail sales growth during this period. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales between $305 billion and $310.7 billion this season.

“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season.”

According to Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, “We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty. Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”

Note to editors:

Deloitte is forecasting a 2.9% to 3.4% increase in total 2025 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2024. Retail sales between November 2024 and January 2025 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 4.2% and totaled $1.57 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Deloitte is forecasting a 7% to 9% increase in 2025 holiday e-commerce sales compared with the same period in 2024. E-commerce sales between November 2024 and January 2025 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 8.0% totaling an estimated $285 billion.