Trends shaping biopharma in 2025

By Namrita Negi, head, Life Sciences Knowledge Center, Deloitte Consulting LLP, and Alex Blair, senior manager, Deloitte Consulting LLP

The biopharmaceutical industry appears to be entering a dynamic and potentially pivotal moment. Along with regulatory changes that often come with a new administration, many top-selling drugs will lose patent protection over the next five years, potentially affecting more than $300 billion in sales between 2026 and 2030.¹ Moreover, increasing margin pressure and changing dynamics related to new drug launches could alter the playing field.² Despite these factors, some research indicates that the global biopharma market could continue to grow steadily through 2030.³

Here are three trends—and our analysis of them—that could impact biopharma companies during the second half of 2025 and beyond:

Trend #1: Portfolio optimization: Research and development (R&D) costs are on the rise. Several of the fastest-growing therapy areas are becoming increasingly crowded, including oncology, cardiometabolic, and immunology (see Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation). Amid this evolving landscape, some companies continue to refine their approach to portfolio optimization. This is a strategic process of managing and prioritizing drug-development projects to maximize returns while minimizing risk. More than half (56%) of biopharma executives surveyed by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions said they intend to rethink their R&D and product-development strategies this year (see the 2025 life sciences outlook). Some companies have embraced a fail-fast approach. Many are relying more on real-time data analytics to help prioritize projects that seem to have higher probabilities of success earlier in the development process.⁴ Some are also investing in market education well ahead of commercial launches (see Navigating the future of commercial in biopharma).

Our analysis: Companies that are able to balance investments in core areas while staying agile enough to pivot into emerging opportunities may be better positioned regarding their portfolio-optimization efforts. Several therapeutic areas (TAs) now have the greatest share of industry pipelines.⁵ Oncology makes up nearly half of all R&D activity among the 20 largest biopharma companies, with the top five TAs accounting for 83% of R&D programs.⁶ Hypercompetition in TAs is contributing to the rising costs of clinical trials. These costs are often fueled by increasingly complex protocol designs, challenges with patient recruitment, longer clinical trials, inflation, and other macroeconomic factors.⁷ Portfolio decisions involve careful evaluation of scientific innovation, regulatory pathways, market access dynamics, scalability, and other relevant factors to help promote sustainable growth. Along with portfolio strategy choices in TAs, investing in new modalities and emerging platforms may be important for long-term competitiveness.

Trend #2: Competitive differentiation through data-driven patient services: Biopharma’s competitive edge appears to be shifting to how well companies can orchestrate personalized and proactive patient services powered by data and artificial intelligence (AI). The exponential rise in patient health care data, coupled with advancements in AI and analytics,⁸ could help biopharma companies anticipate patient needs and engage with them more proactively. In addition, several biopharma companies have moved toward insourcing patient services as part of their efforts to improve the patient experience. According to Deloitte’s Navigating the future of commercial in biopharma report, 56% of biopharma leaders said their commercial models need to be updated; patient services was ranked among the top areas requiring change.

Our analysis: Biopharma companies should consider opportunities to build or acquire the capabilities needed to handle growing data volume and to comply with regulatory and data privacy requirements. They may also want to consider investing in predictive capabilities that can help shift engagement from reactive interventions to proactive, personalized support. As more complex treatments and novel modalities come to market, often with a growing set of requirements for therapy initiation, some patients may need greater support. Success could depend on a company’s ability to shift from a product-focused model to a more patient-experience-focused model powered by data, trust, and intelligent orchestration.

Trend #3: Future-proofed digital supply networks: As biopharma companies navigate the changing geopolitical environment, smart manufacturing and digital supply chains are proving to be critical in improving organizational efficiencies, mitigating supply chain/operational risk, and bringing advanced therapies to patients more efficiently. A majority of biopharma companies appear to be prioritizing investments in supply chain digitalization, which is still a relatively new endeavor for many of them. According to Deloitte’s 2024 survey, 82% of respondents said their organization’s supply chain-digitalization journey began less than five years ago (see Digitalized supply chains are essential to biopharma's future). Some biopharma companies have transitioned to smart manufacturing using cloud computing for efficient drug production, inventory management/cost management, and digital twins to optimize factory operations and maintenance with electronic batch records.

Our analysis: Operationalizing and scaling smart manufacturing is not only a technical upgrade, it is a fundamental shift in mindset, operations, and organizational structure that involves significant change management. As roles evolve to leverage advanced tools and automation, biopharma company leaders should proactively address potential workforce disruptions. They should also consider establishing centers of excellence to develop talent, drive best practices, and share knowledge across global manufacturing sites. This evolution could be particularly critical as biopharma companies manage increasingly complex portfolios. Research suggests about 20% of late-stage pipeline assets (those that are expected to be launched in the next five years) are advanced and complex therapeutics.⁹

Conclusion

The biopharma industry is facing a potentially pivotal period marked by regulatory change, upcoming patent expirations, and increased margin pressure. Despite these challenges, steady market growth is likely to continue through 2030. Companies that can balance innovation, regulatory compliance, and patient-centric strategies—while leveraging advanced analytics and AI—will likely be well positioned to navigate risks and seize new opportunities in the evolving biopharma landscape.

Acknowledgement: Tim Schrader

Endnotes:

¹Based on Deloitte’s analysis of data from Evaluate Pharma, Evaluate.com
²Why drug discovery needs robots and AI, Medical Life Sciences News, May 22, 2025
³Fail better, faster, smarter, Research Solutions, January 29, 2020
⁴Based on Deloitte’s analysis of data from Evaluate Pharma, Evaluate.com, and Biomedtracker
⁵Based on Deloitte’s analysis of R&D pipeline data from Evaluate Pharma, 2025
⁶Pharma Supply Chain 2.0: Embracing Automation and Digitalization to Boost Agility in 2025, Supply Chain Wizard, 2025
⁷Clinical trial complexity drives 30% cost increases, MedPath, February 28, 2025
⁸AI Breakthroughs Revolutionizing Pharma Tech Ops At Roch, BioProcess Online, October 11, 2024
⁹Based on Deloitte’s analysis of data from Evaluate Pharma, Evaluate.com

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