Since 2010, total college enrollment has decreased by 8%, even before the COVID-19 pandemic began affecting colleges and universities.1 According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated first-year enrollment declines at four-year institutions2—only a few years before birth rate declines may weaken current enrollment numbers. Colleges and universities must think strategically about how they manage their admissions pipeline and confront the already challenging enrollment environment.
Changes to the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) guidelines increase competition among existing institutions among this decreasing pool of candidates. New, competitive for-profit institutions and disruptors threaten existing schools and increase competition for non-traditional adult learners. On the flip side, employers are increasingly removing degree requirements for prospective workers, leaving some to question the need for a formal degree program.
Specifically, at the graduate school level, the landscape has never looked more complex and is constantly evolving. The COVID-19 pandemic and a changing economy has caused graduate school leaders to be worried about maintaining their institutions’ financial viability and relevance. With significantly more competition, such as online certification programs and low-priced subscription options, graduate institutions’ overall mission and bottom-line are facing more challenges. Institutions need to change the way they think about enrollment management. To help overcome many of the hurdles, graduate school leaders can—among other things—begin to concentrate enrollment more on the non-traditional student, with the hope of reskilling and upskilling.
Combined, the challenges could result in:
● Reduced enrollment
● Reduced net tuition revenue
● Increased competition for highly qualified and diverse candidates
● Increased need to prioritize among a limited set of available time and monetary resources
● Increased need for long-term planning
A data-driven analytical platform, combined with Deloitte’s insight advisers, can help higher education leaders understand their enrollment challenges and proactively identify and prioritize solutions that support both short- and long-term mission goals.
1 National Center for Education Statistics, “Undergraduate Enrollment,” May 2020, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cha.asp.
2 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, “Fall 2020: Current Term Enrollment Estimates,” December 17, 2020, https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates.