The US market for active Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is poised for extraordinary expansion, with assets under management (AUM) projected to surge from US$856 billion in 2024 to US$11 trillion by the end of 2035. This anticipated spike will significantly reshape the competitive landscape for asset managers and asset management firms. Are firms ready to take advantage of the upcoming growth of active ETF AUM?
With a regulatory opportunity to jump on the ETF share class trend likely to open in the coming months, asset managers have an opportune moment to position themselves on the forefront of this evolving market.
A key driver behind the growth of actively managed ETFs is a shift in investor preference away from mutual funds and toward the ETF structure. Between 2021 and 2023, 460 net-new active ETFs were launched, whereas the number of active mutual funds decreased by 260 during the same period. Although passive ETFs garnered most of the net inflows, active ETFs stole the spotlight with their accelerating growth—outpacing their passive counterparts in inflow rates, even as they started from a more modest base.
With the potential approval of active ETF share class launches from existing mutual funds inching closer, the AUM growth trend of active ETFs is expected to accelerate. As investor awareness and access to performance data on active ETFs becomes more widespread, it is likely that demand and investment flows into active ETFs will continue to rise.
While the primary focus is on introducing ETF share classes within mutual funds, many of these insights may also apply—albeit to a lesser extent—to the reverse scenario, where mutual fund share classes are incorporated within ETFs.
In light of these evolving possibilities, many asset managers have been taking a closer look at the regulatory, governance, accounting and reporting, tax, operational, and strategic implications of adapting their existing fund structures to accommodate both ETF and mutual fund share classes.