The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q3 2025
Consumer confidence shows modest improvement, however sentiment about the UK economy has hit a two-year low.
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Key findings Q3 2025
- Overall confidence grew by a modest 0.4 percentage point in Q3 2025. The Deloitte Consumer Confidence Index saw a marginal uptick from -10.4% to -10% in Q3 2025 after falling significantly last quarter. However, consumer confidence fell among people over 55 and since Q2 2021 has been consistently lower than the confidence of those aged 18 to 34.
- Improvements in perceptions of job security, levels of debt, and general health and wellbeing drove the uptick in overall consumer confidence. Sentiment regarding job security increased the most growing 1.2 percentage points compared with Q2, however it remains 3.8 percentage points lower than a year ago.
- Sentiment about the state of the economy falls to a two-year low. The measure of confidence in the UK economy, which is separate from the main index, fell to -64% in the third quarter, reaching levels last seen in the summer of 2023, when concerns about persistent price pressures drove sharp rises in interest rate expectations.
- Personal finances remain under pressure. In a sign of persistent inflation hitting purchasing power, consumers’ confidence in their household disposable income fell by 0.5 percentage points to -28% and continues to track below its long-term average.
- Overall spending was down in Q3. Consumers remain cautious about spending especially in the more non-essential categories as the increasing cost of groceries and utilities puts pressure on their budget. While overall discretionary spending is down, the category level data signals some possible easing across some of the big-ticket purchases including on major household appliances, and furniture and homeware.
- The overall picture remains one of caution. Consumers are making tactical choices in the face of persistent inflation, which coupled with economic uncertainty, suggests that a sustained recovery in consumer confidence may take more time.
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The Deloitte Consumer Confidence Index averages the net percentage improvement in confidence levels over the past three months for six individual measures. The marginal rise in the overall confidence index in Q3 was driven by small increases across four of the six measures included in the index. Improvements in perceptions of job security, levels of debt, and general health and wellbeing drove the uptick in overall consumer confidence.
However, the measure of confidence in the UK economy, which is separate from the main index, fell by 13 percentage points to -64% and is much lower than the same period a year ago (-32.5%) before the government announced its autumn budget.
Given the mixed outlook, including persistent inflation in food and utilities, our data shows consumers remain cautious about spending. Overall spending on both day-to-day and non-essentials fell this quarter in part due to the post-summer easing in spending but also by consumers making a conscious effort to reduce their expenditure where possible to manage the increasing costs of essentials. While overall discretionary spending is down, the category level data signals some possible easing across some big-ticket purchases including on major household appliances and, furniture and homeware. Value seeking behaviours and tactical spending are now more embedded meaning the outlook ahead of the golden quarter is one of restraint and frugality.
Net % improvement in confidence in the last three months
Net % spending more in the last three months by category
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
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Want to look at the data in more detail including by age or income group? Click here to access our interactive charts. |
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Click below for our latest sector quarterly updates
New car sales saw a significant uplift in Q3 2025, with a significant 5.6% sales increase compared with the same period last year, driving year-to-date figures up by a healthy 4.2%. With just three months remaining, increased choice, heavy discounting and available savings should support continued growth in Q4 with the industry hoping it can achieve a strong full-year performance as a result.
Q3 saw a net decrease in both day-to-day and non-essential spending compared to Q2, as households actively reduce everyday expenditure to manage rising food and energy costs. Encouragingly, there is a modest but notable uptick in demand for bigger ticket items like appliances, electricals, and furniture, suggesting a potential, albeit cautious, easing in consumer attitudes towards larger purchases.
After signs of a recovery in Q2, our latest data reveals renewed consumer restraint, with overall net spending on leisure activities falling from -8.3% to -9.9% in Q3 2025. The data reflects the ongoing pressure on household budgets, as consumers navigate higher energy and grocery bills by tightening their belts in the more discretionary categories.
The UK retail sector performance over the last three months has been characterised by stronger than expected volume sales growth. However, the sector continues to face several headwinds including increased costs and consumers remaining cautious due to persistent economic uncertainty and the possibility of further tax rises following the November Budget.
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Net % improvement in confidence in the last three months
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Net % spending more in the last three months by category
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Net % spending more in the last three months by category
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
Net % spending more in the last three months by category
Source: The Deloitte Consumer Tracker
