Over the past decade, Switzerland has taken significant steps to becoming more sustainable. Following the 2015 Paris Agreement and its ratification in 2017, the Swiss Federal Council in 2019 set the country a target of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050. In January 2021, the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) published its document “Switzerland’s Long-Term Climate Strategy”, and on 18 June 2023, 59 per cent of the country’s electorate voted to approve the Climate and Innovation Act, enshrining the net-zero target in law.

The net-zero target means that by 2050, Switzerland will not emit more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than are captured and stored either naturally or by technological means. The target relates not only to carbon dioxide (CO₂) but also to all greenhouse gases subject to international regulation, such as methane. The target also complies with the Paris Agreement by regulating emissions within Switzerland’s borders in line with the principle of territoriality across all sectors of the greenhouse gas inventory, including inter alia energy and energy production, industrial processes and industrial product use, and agriculture and land use.

Put at its simplest, the net-zero target means that by 2050, Swiss businesses and households will need to become emissions-free. The plan is that the required reduction from current emissions levels will be achieved through technological advances. The target also reflects the fact that some sectors, such as food production and the manufacture of cement, will not be completely emissions-free even by 2050 (see “Switzerland’s Long-Term Climate Strategy”). In these sectors, the plan is to use carbon capture close to the source of emissions, with the carbon stored or reused.

Switzerland’s long-term climate strategy sets out the path to net zero by stipulating specific targets and challenges for individual sectors. In 2022, around three-quarters of territorial emissions were accounted for by just three sectors of the Swiss economy: transport (domestic road, air and rail travel and navigation); buildings (private households and the service sector); and industry. The climate strategy also sets targets for international air travel from Switzerland, agriculture and food production, the financial markets, the waste sector, and synthetic greenhouse gases.

Positive trends in Switzerland’s greenhouse gas emissions

Over recent decades, Switzerland has significantly reduced its greenhouse gas emissions. In 1990, total emissions were around 54 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂eq), but by 2023, this figure had been cut to around 40 million tonnes (dark green bar) – a reduction of around 28 per cent. When the increase in the size of the Swiss population over the same period (from 6.7 million to 8.8 million) is factored in, the reduction in emissions is even more marked (yellow line): per capita emissions fell from 8.1 tonnes of CO₂eq in 1990 to 4.5 tonnes in 2023, a reduction of more than 40 per cent. Comparatively, per capita emissions in Switzerland are around half the European average of 9.3 tonnes of CO₂eq a year.

Alongside territorial emissions, however, Switzerland also creates emissions abroad as a result of spending on imported goods. Factoring in imported emissions takes the country’s per capita carbon footprint to just under 14 tonnes of CO₂ a year (2022 figures). This is around three times the global average – and one of the highest per capita carbon footprint figures of any country around the world.

In terms solely of territorial emissions, Switzerland met its planned interim reduction target for 2022 (cutting emissions to below 45 million tonnes of CO₂eq). This reduction is a positive intermediate step, and further cuts in the country’s territorial greenhouse gas emissions will be impacted mainly by trends in three areas: population, prosperity, and technological progress. Increased prosperity boosts consumption, which usually results in higher emissions levels. Technological advances may boost efficiency and reduce emissions but may actually increase them – something that is currently evident in the growing use of artificial intelligence. Against the backdrop of ongoing and accelerating demographic change, the question arises what impact demographic ageing in Switzerland will have on reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Switzerland’s ageing impacts future emissions and achieving net zero

Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office forecasts that people aged 65 and over make up the most rapidly growing age group in the population. This group is set to swell by more than 40 per cent by 2050, when a quarter of Switzerland’s total population will be aged 65 or over. The second most rapidly growing age group is likely to be those aged 40-64, with a forecast increase of 12 per cent over the same period. Younger age groups are forecasted to grow only marginally, so by 2050, the average age of the Swiss population will be much higher than currently.

Different age groups have differing lifestyles and patterns of consumption, and demographic ageing in Switzerland will have an impact on future greenhouse gas emissions. For example, as people age their environmental footprint tends to shrink: a study by Sotomo and Helion calculates that 18-35 year-olds in Switzerland have an average carbon footprint of 11.3 tonnes of CO₂ a year compared with just 9.8 tonnes among the over-55s. However, these figures include both domestic and imported emissions and therefore do not paint a complete picture of the impact of population ageing on territorial GHG emissions. We therefore explore below the way in which an ageing Switzerland is affecting demand in the three sectors with the highest levels of emissions (transport, buildings, and industry).

Clear trends in the transport and buildings sectors, but a mixed picture in industry

The transport sector includes road transport, domestic civil aviation, rail transport, domestic shipping, and pipeline transport. Mobility generally declines with age, so it is reasonable to expect demographic ageing to have the effect of reducing GHG emissions associated with all forms of transport. 18-35 year-olds in Switzerland travel more by road, rail and air than other age groups, creating average transport-related emissions of 4.2 tonnes of CO₂ a year compared with 3.3 tonnes for 36-55 year-olds and just 2.7 tonnes for the over-55s. Most of the emissions associated with flying do not originate in Switzerland and therefore do not form part of the country’s territorial greenhouse gas emissions, but it remains true that the carbon footprint for individuals declines with age. Demographic ageing will therefore tend to reduce CO₂ emissions in the Swiss transport sector, facilitating progress towards the net-zero target.

The buildings sector includes emissions from both private households and the service sector. Against this backdrop, demographic ageing is most likely to increase emissions from private households, as the average carbon footprint associated with living accommodation rises with age. It totals 1.8 tonnes of CO₂ a year among the over-55 age group, 20 per cent higher than for 36-55 year-olds (1.5 tonnes of CO₂) and 30 per cent higher than for 18-35 year-olds (1.4 tonnes). There are two main reasons for this. First, older people tend to have larger properties because many do not see any financial advantage to downsizing even after their children have moved out. Second, retired people in particular usually spend longer at home than younger age groups and so consume more energy for heating, lighting, cooking and so on. They therefore tend to have higher household emissions. In this context, demographic ageing is therefore likely to increase territorial greenhouse gas emissions, hampering progress towards achieving net zero.

The impact of ageing on industry is less clear than for either of the other two sectors. The average carbon footprint in the area of food and other consumption is an indicator, but variations between age groups are much less marked than in the transport and buildings sectors. Moreover, food and other consumption include significant amounts of imported goods, yet these are not included in the territorial emissions for Switzerland. Additionally, forecasts assume that the spending patterns of the over-55 age group will change between now and 2050. For example, between 2020 and 2050, older people’s spending on entertainment, leisure and culture as a proportion of their total spending looks likely to increase by just under half (+45%), while their spending share on home furnishings and household costs looks set to increase by 27 per cent. However, the proportion of food and non-alcoholic drinks is likely to account for almost a fifth less than currently (-19%). Changes of this kind will have both a negative and a positive impact on total emissions, so the effects of ageing on industrial greenhouse gas emissions in Switzerland are mixed.

Overall, ageing is likely to have a noticeable influence on territorial emissions and the achievement of net zero, but the scale of this influence will vary from sector to sector. Emissions are likely to fall in the transport sector but rise in the buildings sector. In industry, meanwhile, ageing is likely to have a mixed effect on achieving net zero.

The impacts described above suggest that companies need to analyse what demographic ageing will mean for their specific business. Based on this analysis, firms should determine which business areas need to intensify their sustainability efforts in order to achieve the net-zero target by 2050. 

Recommendations for action by companies