Continental divides: North American and global exporters in a new trade era

Canada is entering a more conditional trade era—one that is exposing old vulnerabilities and rewarding firms with the resilience, reach, and capabilities to adapt.

This report from Deloitte’s Future of Canada Centre looks beyond the headlines to what firms are actually doing on the ground. Drawing on interviews with 32 Canadian exporting companies and FCC business opinion survey data from November 2025, it uncovers a growing divide between North American-focused exporters and globally diversified exporters—and what that emerging gap signals for Canada’s competitiveness, its trade trajectory, and policy options in the years ahead.

What exporters did in 2025: Three market choices

Across interviews and survey findings, exporters described reassessing where growth should come from—often pursuing more than one path, but with varying emphasis depending on exposure and capability:

• Diversify beyond North America: Momentum is real, but most firms describe diversification as early-stage, selective, and capability-intensive.
• Defend US footholds: For deeply integrated firms, the US remains a structural anchor. The shift is in the terms: tighter enforcement, more compliance burden, and greater need for rules-of-origin precision.
• Build a stronger Canadian base: More exporters are treating domestic growth as a stabilizer—sequencing investments at home alongside global ambition, while confronting productivity and scale constraints.

How exporters adjusted: A tale of two operating models

The divide between North American-focused exporters and globally diversified exporters is clearest in their operational responses to trade- and tariff-related uncertainty. North American-focused exporters were more likely to manage cost shocks within familiar lanes, protect cash flow by pausing or deferring investment, and respond in real time. Globally diversified exporters were more likely to rewire costs structurally, reallocate investment toward resilience, and draw on scenario planning and supply-chain optionality built over years.

Where exporters align: Policy fixes on the home front

Regardless of export orientation, executives agree that Canada needs a more coherent and coordinated growth strategy. They called for clearer national priorities and tighter alignment across trade, industrial, tax, and innovation policy—paired with practical growth enablers like regulatory streamlining, removal of interprovincial barriers, infrastructure modernization, and accessible financing and incentive programs that actually reach firms.

What’s ahead: Four shifts shaping 2026 and beyond

• US-linked trade becomes more frictional, conditional, and selective. Compliance capacity increasingly determines durable access.
• Non-US trade becomes more intentional, cooperative, and strategic. Opportunities concentrate in lower-friction allied corridors.
• As trade regimes diverge, new competitive advantages emerge. Speed to reconfigure and value moving up the stack matter more.
• Domestic enablers increasingly impact trade outcomes. Countries—and firms—with stronger execution systems will diversify faster.

To explore the evidence and practical implications behind these findings—including what leading exporters are doing differently—read the full report.