From fixed to flexible: The case for a new procurement model in the North
Why uncovering uncertainty is key to meeting Arctic infrastructure commitments
For the past two decades, the main obstacle to Arctic defence infrastructure has been approval. Now with significant investments committed, the obstacle has shifted: Can we deliver infrastructure at the pace required?
Traditional fixed price procurement doesn’t reflect Arctic realities. Limited access, short construction windows, constrained labour, and uncertain site conditions create risks we can’t fully define or price up front.
These challenges don’t make delivery impossible, but they do demand a different approach.
Fixed-price models create false certainty by assigning risk before it’s fully understood. This perspective calls for a shift to a staged, collaborative delivery model:
- Stage 1: Engage qualified partners early, before locking in a price.
- Stage 2: Fund a development phase to define the scope and reduce uncertainty.
- Stage 3: Commit to construction only once the scope, cost, and risks are clear. Teams then deliver under a transparent, target-cost model with shared performance incentives.
To meet this moment, the government must bring uncertainty forward and align risk with those best equipped to manage it. Done right, Arctic defence infrastructure can be delivered with greater speed, transparency, and accountability.
