What’s for school lunch?
This back-to-school season, caregivers are thinking about lunch costs and healthy eating
Natalie Martini
Justin Cook
Lupine Skelly
Nimisha Mohanan
As summer draws on, many families may start pondering back-to-school-related expenses, including school lunch costs. As they do, the impact of several years of food price inflation may still linger for many.1 Even though inflation rates are now substantially lower than at their peak in 2022, groceries today cost 23% more than they did five years ago.2 Based on our 2025 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey, almost half of parents and caregivers (48%) said the cost of lunch on school days this year will likely be higher than last.3
To find out what families may be facing, we examined three years of lunch-related food prices (see figure 1 and the methodology sidebar). Of course, lunch costs vary based on what is packed, and there is no one-size-fits-all brown-bag lunch these days. In addition to a classic peanut butter and jelly sandwich (assuming no allergy restrictions), we also looked at a contemporary lunch featuring a chicken and avocado quesadilla, a health-and-wellness lunch centered on a salad, and a convenience lunch built around a prepackaged meat, cheese, and crackers kit. By our index, the average daily cost across these lunch options is US$6.15.4 Relative to the beginning of the 2024 school year, packing lunch in 2025 costs about 3% more on average—slightly higher than food-at-home inflation overall.5 This year’s rise is higher than in 2024 (which was flat year over year), but lower than at the start of the 2023 school year, when the average index lunch cost was up 6% year over year.6
Although the classic lunch is still the cheapest of our four options, it also had the steepest rise in cost in 2025 (6% year over year), driven by higher retail prices for apples, jelly, and single-serve milk cartons.7 No one knows exactly where prices are headed next, but following a drop in February, prices for all four lunches are on an upward trend, rising by an average of 5.5%.8
All but one of our lunch configurations—the contemporary lunch (US$7.30)—came in cheaper than the survey average for the “reasonable” daily cost respondents thought they should pay for lunch (US$6.84). However, no option is as low as the median reasonable cost (US$4.50), meaning at least half the survey population will likely pay more in practice than they feel is appropriate.
How some consumers respond to higher food prices
By tracking Deloitte’s ConsumerSignals food frugality index for multiple years, we have found that people pull back at the grocery store in numerous ways when worried about prices.9 In the United States, frugal food shopping is lower today than at its 2023 peak but has generally been on an upward trend since October 2024.10
Similarly, to manage higher lunch prices, caregivers in our survey most often said they may switch from name brands to more store brands, also known as “private labels” (31%), substitute a cheaper main lunch item, like a less expensive sandwich type (27%), or cut other household expenses to free up money for the added expense (24%).
However, the top changes contemplated can differ by generation. For instance, over half of Generation Z caregivers (56%—more than three times higher than for any other generation) said they would switch to more school-provided lunches, while millennials were the most willing to cut back on buying fresh food to reduce the cost of perishable food waste (29%).11
Brown bagging seems to remain popular, despite the cost
Part of what may drive the choice of where to obtain lunch is economics. Prices can vary by school level (elementary, middle, or high school) and region, but at an average of just about US$3.00, the list price for a school-provided lunch can be less than half the cost of bringing one.12 And not every family has to pay, which also affects lunch choices. When their school provides free lunch to all students, respondents are 90% more likely to say their child typically gets lunch from school.
However, even though school-provided lunches are almost always cheaper and sometimes free, about 4 in 10 (42%) respondents’ kids bring lunch from home—a figure that generally rises with household income. Why? A few possible reasons showed up in the survey results. For instance, a majority (69%) of respondents with children who bring lunch from home rated it higher for its superior taste relative to cafeteria food. This type of lunch may cost more, but most of these lunch-pail-loading respondents thought they were getting better value from their child bringing lunch (63%) and that it offered them more variety (52%).
Working up an appetite for health
Price is a key issue, but healthy eating is the most dominant concern among respondents. Eighty-two percent of parents and caregivers surveyed conveyed that they would like their kids to eat healthier during the school day. One possible problem with achieving that goal is that about half think they have little control over what—or even whether—students eat during the school day (48% overall, and even higher for those who most often get lunch at school).
With that context, health may be another reason why children bring lunch from home. In a 70% to 30% pack versus obtain-at-school split, respondents rated lunch brought from home as superior in overall health and nutrition, despite national standards and professionals overseeing the healthful qualities of school-provided lunches.13 Just as important, most respondents (by a 68% to 32% split) thought their child was more likely to actually eat food brought from home without wasting it, compared to what they get in the cafeteria.
Caregivers express interest in help from food companies
Respondents provided a few thoughts on what changes they would like to see in school lunches and the best ways to help them when preparing lunches at home. Suppliers to cafeterias should take note: 75% of respondents think there should be more fresh food (and less processed food) in school-provided lunches, while 57% would like to see more locally sourced food in the school cafeterias. In both cases, they said they want these improvements even if it means a higher cost.
For those respondents packing a lunch, 44% consider answering the question, “What are we making for school lunch?” a major pain point for their family. A weekly meal plan with child-friendly recipes is the number one thing they said would help them find relief.
The food and beverage industry also seems to recognize consumers’ drive for healthier eating, at school and in general. Earlier this year, at an industry conference, mentions of health and wellness initiatives increased by 33% over the previous year.14 Food companies indicated they are launching new offerings with more protein and fiber, and reformulating older ones to remove dyes and additives. They said they are investing in technologies to help them better understand consumer needs, innovate, and manage entire product life cycles, including reformulation.
With these investments, cafeteria trays and lunch boxes alike may have more convenient and healthy options as the new school year begins, even if families are likely to pay a little more.
Methodology
Lunch costs were derived from three years of Converge™ by Deloitte monthly average retail list price data through June 2025. Multiple national and store-brand options with broad geographic distribution were selected for each lunch element, then averaged to derive that element’s price contribution to a given lunch’s overall cost. Serving size and calorie data were used as guides to allocate the amount of each item that would be packed in a typical lunch.
The Deloitte Back-to-School Survey polled a sample of 1,203 caregivers of school-aged children, with respondents having at least one child attending school in grades K to 12 this fall. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points for the entire sample. It was conducted online using an independent research panel from May 21 to May 30, 2025.
Let’s make this work.
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BY
Natalie Martini
Justin Cook
Lupine Skelly
Nimisha Mohanan
The authors would like to thank James Cascone, Kim Del Guercio, Brian McCarthy, Steve Rogers, Kusum Raimalani, and Rithu Thomas for their contributions to this report. Special thanks to Natalie Groff and Clark Passino, along with the entire Converge™ by Deloitte team and data ecosystem, for fueling our school lunch index.
Survey coding, coordination, and data analysis: Sanjay Vadrevu
Cover image by: Molly Piersol
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