The Green Room podcast
How do we create progress through uncertainty?
Outcomes alone don't tell the full story. It's the decisions we make in the unknown, and the confidence behind them, that complete the picture.
A waiting game, or a calculated risk?
Holding out for certainty could be the biggest risk of all.
What do you do when the path ahead isn’t clear? Act now? Wait for more evidence? Or take one careful step at a time?
Every day, people and businesses make decisions that shape what happens next. But without certainty, how do we know which decision is right? Will we create opportunity or amplify poor judgement?
Most important decisions are made before all the facts are available to us. But opportunity can lie in embracing the unknown. The confidence to act doesn’t guarantee success, instead knowing when to trust your decision can be more important than the outcome.
How much certainty do you really need to make a good decision? In this episode, we explore how we can be more comfortable making decisions in uncertain times, why progress doesn’t come from predicting the future, and how we can stay flexible enough to embrace the uncertainty of what comes next.
Watch below, or listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Read the transcript here.
What we want is not confidence that the decision will look good after the fact, but confidence that I can make a rational decision with the information at the time, and respond to what the world throws at me.
Alex Edmans – Professor of finance and author
“A wrong decision is not the same as a wrong outcome.”
When a decision doesn't work out, it's easy to assume we made the wrong one. But Alex Edmans, Financial Times Book of the Year author, highlights the difference between making a bad call versus making the best judgement possible with the information available at the time.
“I could make the right decision and it just doesn't turn out correctly, because the economy moves in ways that I could not anticipate. I shouldn't beat myself up too much about this.”
That distinction matters because sometimes it's better to act, even if things don't go to plan, than not act at all. We may wait for more evidence, hoping the right answer will become obvious, but as Alex puts it, “often indecision is the worst type of decision.” Choosing not to try the innovation or pursue the opportunity might avoid an immediate failure, but it also removes the chance to learn and make the best call next time.
“Some of the greatest successes of humanity have come at times of adversity.”
Chief economist at Deloitte UK, Debo De, argues that periods of disruption are often a catalyst for innovation. Some of the most significant breakthroughs have emerged because people were forced to solve problems they couldn't ignore.
But uncertainty doesn't only create opportunities for progress. It also exposes the limitations of endlessly planning. No business can plan for every disruption. Markets move, customer behaviour changes and unexpected events can quickly make yesterday’s assumptions obsolete.
For Debo, the idea that an organisation can prepare for every possible outcome is “an absolute fallacy”. Instead, the businesses that thrive are often those that build adaptability into the core of how they operate.
For more of Debo's insights on the forces shaping business, economics and finance, subscribe to The Monday Briefing, his weekly newsletter.
Are we focussing on the wrong type of certainty?
Economic conditions shape all of our lives. Yet the future is rarely guaranteed. So how can we create progress in the face of the unknown – with the confidence that we're making the right choices?
Hear more from Alex Edmans and Debo De as we explore the relationship between external pressures, confidence and action. Why do some people and organisations continue to invest and innovate when circumstances are uncertain, while others see the same conditions but react differently? Does progress need to wait for the perfect situation, or can confidence in our actions allow it to thrive in any environment?
Watch below, or listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Read the transcript here.
Businesses are meant to be dynamic organisations that are constantly adapting to a changing environment.
Debo De – Chief economist, Deloitte UK
Let’s make this work.
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What does it take to turn ideas into impact?
The future isn’t built by accident. Explore more insights from Series 15, where we learn from the people brave enough to think big, and explore the role we can all play in turning bold ideas into progress.
