Ten years of the Belfast Crane Survey

There were times in the first ten years of the Belfast Crane Survey when the sky was full of cranes. There have been fewer cranes in recent years, however it is worth making a few wider observations from the first ten years of the Belfast Crane Survey.

Office, higher education, student and visitor accommodation have developed the most:

• Over 2.5m sq. ft. of office space delivered or under development – a mix of sleek, new office towers and handsome restoration of heritage buildings reflecting substantial investment in the city by national and international companies with significant numbers of quality jobs.
• Over 1.5m sq. ft. of education and R&D space delivered or under development – from the Ulster University Belfast Campus through to the ongoing City Region Deal developments (on site developments of Momentum One Zero and iReach Health and demolition preparations for the Centre for Digital Health Technology)
• Over 7,500 Purpose-Built Student Accommodation units and 2,500 hotel rooms completed or under development. There was a concern at one point that Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) would not be viable in Belfast. Early demand was huge, and the supply has surged in response. The resulting student footfall, alongside the visitor population across the city centre is visible for all to see.

Some developments are catalysts that shape the city: Ulster University’s Belfast Campus development has attracted substantial investment, as well as vibrancy and energy, to part of the city centre that was previously desolate. Grand Central Station also has potential to do this.

Streets matter: The coherent, lively and largely walkable Bedford Street connecting the City Hall in the very centre of the city towards institutional anchors of QUB and Ulster Museum in south Belfast has seen an impressive series of developments including the Bedford and Grand Central Hotels, the Ewart and One Bankmore office developments and Weaver’s Hall student accommodation.

Reconnection with the waterside: The city is slowly re-embracing the River Lagan, most obviously through Titanic Quarter and City Quays. The opportunity sites and plans further up the river indicate there is much more to do.

Slow mover: Despite stating it as a policy goal and widespread understanding and support for growing the city centre population there has been very limited delivery of residential units. Next year there will be nearly 900 homes released to the market, mainly with Loft Lines.

Unlocking potential: Some schemes remain locked. Tribeca is the most notorious. One positive was the notable step by City Council in purchasing back the heritage rich Assembly Rooms and surrounding buildings.

Belfast needs to redouble its efforts to unlock potential city centre developments

Looking forward, what should the focus be in the next ten years? Lots of sectors need to progress however residential should be the medium-longer term priority. The underlying challenge appears to be delivery.

Delivering the Belfast City Region Deal will be part of this, with three large scale R&D projects underway or imminent, a bridge over the river between the Gasworks and Ormeau Park and the long-awaited Belfast Stories to be developed around the magnificent Art Deco Bank of Ireland building on Royal Avenue. Notably this doesn’t touch on residential. Nor does it unlock the potential of the multiple city centre sites that appear stuck.

Looking across the water to other Regional Crane Survey cities of Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham, it is apparent that the context is different. For example, Mayors receive integrated funding settlements covering housing, regeneration, local growth, transport, skills, and employment support, fostering a joined-up approach to local regeneration needs. Greater Manchester Good Growth Fund is an example of the outworking of this.

Successive crane surveys have flagged wastewater infrastructure as a potential development constraining issue locally. On infrastructure, the Irish Government has just published the Accelerating Infrastructure Report and Action Plan. Thirty specific, time-bound measures have been designed to remove barriers. The actions sit across four areas: Legal Reform; Regulatory Reform and Simplification; Co-ordination and Delivery Reform; and Public Acceptance.

Back in Belfast there have been various proposals seeking to unlock regeneration choke points. Belfast Chamber has been pushing for a development agency bringing together key decision-making powers. Belfast City Council has worked with partners to establish the Belfast Place Based Growth Proposition seeking a fairer share of regeneration funding and enhanced powers (making the case that Northern Ireland currently receives only half the regional average spend on regeneration and local growth per capita, compared to Scotland, Wales and English regions). The Proposition is seeking a £250 million City-Wide Regeneration Fund to deliver catalytic change through: housing-led, mixed-use regeneration, including measures to address dereliction; improved infrastructure, connectivity, public realm, place making, public and green spaces; and unlocking stalled major regeneration schemes. The Belfast Crane Survey data further highlights the need for such an intervention.

Where will we be in 2036?

The delivery of residential development feels critical for Belfast to cultivate a truly thriving urban landscape. The next year and completion of 900 homes is a notable step in the right direction. Ten years of focus on delivery will be needed beyond that if Belfast is to reach its ambitions for city centre living.

If the conditions needed to facilitate further regeneration and development are achieved, there will be thousands more people living in the city centre by 2036. This will have a range of implications for the make up of Belfast. A bigger urban population increases demand not only for infrastructure but for the services needed to facilitate daily life, from grocery stores to doctor’s surgeries and childcare provision, new neighbourhoods will create a different fabric in the city. How far we have got by the time of the 2036 Deloitte Belfast Crane Survey remains to be seen.