As student accommodation slows, will residential pick up?

Ten years of the Belfast Crane Survey and is the  residential nut about to be cracked?

When Deloitte first launched the Crane Survey in Belfast, it was experiencing a significant expansion in hotel development, marked by major projects such as the Grand Central Hotel and the AC Hotel by Marriott. Moving towards the 2020s, the focus shifted to new office spaces, with over half a million sq. ft. completed in 2022 alone. However, this momentum slowed post-pandemic, influenced by changing economic conditions and the evolving nature of work. The Crane Surveys have also tracked a surge in Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) which has continued beyond the pandemic but is now slowing. Complementing the PBSA has been significant Education and R&D developments by Ulster University and Queens University Belfast (QUB). The one sector that is stubbornly slow and puts Belfast at odds with other regional cities is residential.

Student accommodation surge is slowing

Since 2016, over 6,300 student bedrooms have been delivered across 14 PBSA developments in Belfast. Currently, more than 1,200 rooms are under construction, including the Biscuit Factory near the Ulster University campus, at the QUB Catholic Chaplaincy, and at Weavers’ Hall on Dublin Road. Further PBSA developments are in the pipeline, with demolition underway for schemes like Fanum House on Great Victoria Street, which has planning permission for 560 rooms, and Norwich Union House, approved for 895 rooms across multiple storeys.

While activity remains visible, the PBSA market does appear to be slowing after years of rapid growth. Primarily, there were no new student accommodation starts in 2025, the first time since 2017 in the Crane Survey. Two sites with existing PBSA planning permission, one near Sandy Row and another near Donegall Street, have recently been put up for sale. Another site with planning permission on the Dublin Road began demolition work in January 2025 but has not made any meaningful progress. Similarly, sites earmarked by QUB for student and staff accommodation have not been progressed. Belfast City Council has granted planning permission for student accommodation owners on Corporation Street to use up to 50% of rooms for tourist accommodation outside term time. Collectively, these indicators suggest that future growth in this sector may increasingly rely on private sector investment and become more selective.

Residential has a long way to go to meet target of 8,000 residential units

Beyond the expanding student population, a long-standing ambition for Belfast has been to increase its city centre residential population and integrate housing into the urban core.

For the city’s burgeoning technology and innovation sectors to thrive, they require a skilled and talented workforce, which are retained and attracted by a variety of attractive living options. The Loft Lines development, set for completion in 2026, exemplifies the push for city centre living and a new residential offer. This significant project will deliver 778 apartments, comprising 627 Build-to-Rent (BTR) units and 151 affordable / social homes on a site beside Titanic Belfast. It aims to create a vibrant waterfront community with mixed-use spaces, including a riverside promenade, communal courtyards, rooftop amenities, and active ground-floor uses like cafés, retail, and co-working spaces. As Northern Ireland's first major BTR scheme, Loft Lines will serve as a crucial indicator for future developments in this sector.

Belfast City Council’s Local Development Plan growth strategy identifies a need for 8,000 new residential units within the city centre by 2035. The Crane Survey recorded no new residential starts during 2025 but includes two live residential schemes, Loft Lines in Titanic Quarter and the Radius Housing development near the Gasworks, together comprising almost 900 homes. This is significant given the Crane Survey has only recorded approximately 500 new homes in the city centre since 2016. It is sobering to think that the city needs a development of a similar scale to Loft Lines every remaining year to reach that 8,000 target by 2035.

What happens next?

There is evidence of growing demand. The Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) now has a City Centre Waiting List. To help gauge the growing demand for city centre living, a latent demand test was undertaken in 2020, from a mailing list of 15,000, the NIHE had over 800 people express interest in city centre living. A similar exercise in 2025 had over 4,000 people express interest from a mailing list of 22,000.

Rents in the city have been increasing fast, with double digit percentage increases recorded by some indicating both demand and constrained supply.

Positively there is policy and strategic support. The Belfast Agenda specified growing the city centre population almost ten years ago. In December 2024, the Department for Communities launched its Housing Supply Strategy aiming to build at least 100,000 homes regionally including the development of city centre housing options.

Beyond Loft Lines there is another 1,000 Build-to-Rent residential units with planning permission (e.g. City Quays 4, Corporation Street, Waterside, Academy Street). There are also several hundred non-BTR residential units with planning permission in place (e.g. former Havelock House site, Marlborough House) with several schemes moving through pre-planning phases.

The city ‘boasts’ significant city-centre sites with potential for residential. These include sites such as Tribeca, Sirocco, Weavers Cross and sites at Hope Street and Stewart Street. Belfast City Council has identified under-utilised prime city centre land with the capacity and potential to deliver over 1,400 city centre homes. Residential development would have the twin impact of providing additional homes and improving often unsightly waste ground or empty, derelict buildings. Some sites have been empty and derelict for years, if not decades. Building homes on them should grow confidence and stimulate further investment, multiplying the economic and social outcomes.

Ready to deliver?

As the city moves beyond the PBSA surge, the residential demand remains unsatisfied. All eyes in 2026 are on the completion of the BTR Loft Lines scheme. Pricing, demand, operation and feedback will be scrutinised. Evidence from this, alongside wider contextual factors including interest rates and construction inflation, which at time of writing are tracking in the right direction, will help determine whether and how quickly other residential developments of scale with planning permission and at pre-planning will proceed to construction.