Connecting nature, climate, and capital

This report is delivered in collaboration with BNZ, Deloitte, and The Nature Conservancy. The report explores what drives investment in nature-based carbon and biodiversity credits and, crucially, how to secure market traction for New Zealand-originated nature-based credits.

Aotearoa New Zealand holds a distinctive natural heritage with ecological, cultural and economic value. Nature-based credit markets offer a practical path to scale private investment in nature restoration and conservation. The global demand for carbon credits, including nature-based credits, could reach about US$20 billion by 2030. Biodiversity credits could reach about US$2 billion by the same date. Demand is trending toward verified, high integrity credits with biodiversity and social outcomes, shown by price premiums, rising supply of high integrity projects and approved methodologies.

Nature-based credit markets offer New Zealand an opportunity to mobilise its nature investments to unlock additional investment for nature from domestic and international sources. Acting early can position the country as a supplier of high integrity credits that meet global standards. This can capture premium demand, attract international buyers and deliver measurable benefits for climate, biodiversity and communities. This report leverages primary and secondary research to deliver insights on how to secure market traction for New Zealand-originated nature-based credits.

There are material challenges limiting the ability for New Zealand to access and grow this demand. Standards and methodologies remain fragmented, regulatory settings continue to evolve and guidance on corporate claims and integrity requirements can be unclear. These issues affect buyer confidence and investment pace. Many of them are solvable here in New Zealand through coordinated effort from all stakeholders to work together for the benefit of all.  

Key action areas

Success requires coordinated effort across stakeholders: project developers, buyers, NGOs, Government and intermediaries.

• Buyers can mobilise early financial support and prioritise high-integrity credits from New Zealand.
• Project developers and intermediaries can design and deliver projects that meet international standards, embedding Indigenous leadership and cultural integrity in governance, methodology selection and benefit sharing.
• NGOs can take an advocacy role on guidance for evidence, monitoring and best practice.
• Market facilitators can focus on aggregating small projects into larger portfolios, listing credits on global brokerage platforms, and building a national biodiversity data platform to standardise metrics and strengthen verification.
• Government can set clear guardrails for integrity and claims, enable fit‑for‑purpose regulation and support market infrastructure and data systems. It can help build robust market infrastructure and data to support verification, transparency and traceability.

Explore the report for actionable recommendations and steps to strengthen integrity, build confidence, and accelerate the growth of nature-based credit markets.

Outlook

New Zealand can gain opportunities in the high integrity nature-based credit market, turning early momentum into lasting advantage. Early, decisive action can capture premium demand, attract international buyers, and deliver measurable benefits for climate, biodiversity and communities. By leveraging natural competitive advantages, such as New Zealand’s unique biodiversity and cultural heritage, we can transform nature from a vulnerable asset into a cornerstone of New Zealand’s sustainable prosperity.