Deloitte’s global Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions for 2026

Auckland, 29 January 2026: Deloitte has released its global Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions report, which highlights how AI is redefining the foundations of hardware, software, telecom, and media. AI is driving infrastructure investment, reshaping business models, and accelerating shifts in how people connect and consume content - creating a more competitive and complex digital economy in 2026 and beyond.

Key findings with relevance for New Zealand:

• Agentic AI takes centre stage: The global Agentic AI market could reach US$45 billion in 2030, but only if organisations can orchestrate AI agents effectively and safely.
• AI disrupts search: Daily usage of AI within search is expected to be three times greater than the usage of any standalone AI tool.
• Hardware heats up: Inference - the running of AI models - will make up two-thirds of AI compute in 2026. Despite forecasts to the contrary, most inference will likely still take place in data centres using costly, power-intensive AI chips worth over US$200 billion, rather than on inexpensive chips at the edge. 
• Rise of the robots: The installed base of global industrial robots is estimated to reach 5.5 million by 2026, with modest annual growth. Robot sales will surge past a million units per year, but not until 2030.

These insights come at a time when New Zealand organisations are rapidly scaling AI adoption and modernising their data capabilities, as they work to meet rising public expectations to address the country’s productivity challenges and strengthen global competitiveness.

“Technology, media and telecommunications now represent almost half of global market capitalisation, and we’re seeing that momentum reflected here in New Zealand. TMT isn’t just another sector - it is fast becoming a core engine of economic growth,” says Damian Harvey, Deloitte New Zealand Partner.

 “The real opportunity lies in what comes next: doing the practical work to make AI genuinely useful at scale, and realising the productivity gains that New Zealand organisations are targeting.”

AI is rewriting the rules of search and software

AI is changing business software, creating new markets, and reshaping how people can search for information and products - trends that could accelerate through 2026.

• Agentic AI is expected to drive the next era of enterprise integration. Estimates suggest that the global Agentic AI market could reach US$35 billion in 2030, up from a projected US$8.5 billion in 2026. However, Deloitte predicts that if enterprises orchestrate agents better by more thoughtfully addressing the associated challenges and risks, this market projection could increase by up to 30% - or as high as US$45 billion by 2030. For New Zealand organisations facing talent constraints, agent-based automation could become a powerful lever for scaling capacity and accelerating decision-making
• AI is becoming an intuitive interface that summarises results, infusing traditional search portals with AI context. In 2026, daily usage of AI within search will be three times greater than any standalone AI tool - reshaping how people can discover information. Nearly one-third (29%) of adults in developed countries, such as New Zealand, will see at least one AI search summary daily, compared to 10% using standalone AI apps daily. Instead of users clicking through links and stitching together answers, search will increasingly deliver AI-crafted summaries up front, evolving from a gateway into a guide that interprets, organises, and explains information in context.
• In 2026, SaaS apps will get smarter, more personalised, adaptive, and autonomous. Agentic AI could even begin to replace today’s SaaS tools over time. In 2026, as many as 75% of companies may invest in Agentic AI, fuelling a surge in spending on autonomous AI agents across SaaS platforms. This aligns with strong local demand for tools that improve workflow automation, compliance, and personalisation.

“AI isn’t just transforming business, it’s redefining the rules of competition. We’re entering a period where automation, intelligent agents, and smarter software are no longer on the horizon; they’re at the core of digital transformation. From reshaping how people search for information to reinventing enterprise platforms and pricing models, AI is altering the foundations of how markets operate,” adds Girija Krishnamurthy, Deloitte Global Technology sector leader.

AI drives demand for tech hardware and infrastructure, and exposes risks

Agentic AI and automation are accelerating demand for new hardware and infrastructure. They’re also exposing supply chain vulnerabilities and fuelling a global push for greater local control of technology.

• Inference - running AI models - will make up two-thirds of AI compute by 2026. Despite forecasts to the contrary, most inference will still take place in data centres using costly, power-intensive AI chips worth over US$200 billion, rather than on inexpensive chips at the edge.
• Robots and drones expand as labour pressures grow: Cumulative annual sales of global industrial robots could reach 5.5 million units in 2026 but longer term, growth could accelerate as labour shortages bolster domestic manufacturing in developed markets and as advances in computing power and multi-modal AI can expand robotic capabilities. These AI advances could propel annual industrial robot sales to over a million units and US$20 billion in revenues by 2030. Drones are also emerging as part of this shift: While most remain human-operated, autonomous functions are advancing rapidly. For New Zealand’s logistics, manufacturing, agriculture, and viticulture sectors, robotics - paired with multimodal AI - may help address long-term labour shortages.
• In 2026, new chipmaking technologies such as high-bandwidth memory co-packaging tools, 3D stacking, plasma etching, and GAA transistors will emerge to meet the demand for GenAI and high-performance computing. At least US$30 billion could be spent on these and other critical technologies. Semiconductor supply chains will likely remain exposed to global tensions, however, as these technologies rely on a handful of specialised suppliers in concentrated regions. Given New Zealand’s distance from concentrated semiconductor hubs, these trends highlight the need for careful planning around digital sovereignty and supply vulnerability.
• Deloitte forecasts that in 2026, nearly US$100 billion will be invested globally in sovereign AI compute. Companies outside the US and China are expected to double their domestic AI capacity by 2030, led by the EU’s focus on enhancing AI sovereignty. Motivated by global uncertainty, the EU and other regions are accelerating investments to regain control over important digital infrastructure, including AI hardware, AI software, advanced chips, and satellite constellations.

Telecom looks towards reinvention

Satellites may expand access globally, while telcos pivot from selling speed to selling perks and lifestyle add-ons. With rural connectivity, disaster resilience, and infrastructure investment all high priorities in New Zealand, several telecom predictions are particularly relevant:

• Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites are poised for further growth in 2026, with roughly US$15 billion in expected annual revenues and more than 15 million global subscribers. In addition, the number of communication satellites in LEO is predicted to expand to five major constellations totalling as many as 18,000 satellites by year’s end, likely reshaping global connectivity and competition.
• Direct-to-Device (D2D) is a new kind of satellite service that connects directly to a phone or device, extending coverage where cell towers can’t reach. Investment is expected to climb to US$6 - 8 billion by 2026, with over 1,000 direct-to-device-capable satellites in orbit providing basic connectivity like SOS, text, and voice. Looking ahead, next-gen satellite internet - powered by D2D satellites in low-Earth orbit - aims to move beyond basic services and bring broader connectivity to people outside today’s networks. For remote parts of New Zealand, this could extend basic services like SOS and text without traditional coverage.

Streaming, social, and storytelling collide

The lines between TV, streaming, and user-generated content continue to blur. From GenAI video and bite-sized micro-dramas to video podcasts and bold collaborations between public service broadcasters and creators, new forms of storytelling are changing how audiences engage and participate, including in New Zealand’s small but highly engaged media market.

• Micro-dramas - short, plot-driven serials designed for smartphones - are watched by over half a billion viewers annually, blending the convenience of short-form video with serialised storytelling. Their global popularity is surging: In-app revenue is forecasted to reach US$3.8 billion in 2025, and Deloitte predicts that it will more than double to US$7.8 billion in 2026. While the US is expected to generate half of global revenue in 2025, its share will likely drop to 40 percent as other markets increasingly capitalise on this trend.
• Approaching Hollywood quality, generative video is unlocking new creative possibilities - empowering independent creators, fuelling richer audience engagement, and creating new revenue streams for platforms. At the same time, the scale and realism raise important challenges around authenticity, audience trust, and responsible usage. Platforms may need to strengthen moderation, invest in tools like watermarking, and comply with emerging regulations on labelling and age verification. How well they respond could determine if generative video can help drive growth without undermining trust in their platforms – issues already gaining attention in New Zealand’s policy environment.
• European public service broadcasters face many of the same pressures as commercial TV. They are adapting by co-producing with streamers, promoting content on social platforms, licensing content, and staggering releases. These strategies extend reach, attract younger audiences, and inject local content into global platforms. Partnerships could generate tens of thousands of additional hours of content on streaming and social platforms in 2026, translating into billions of views, hundreds of millions of viewing hours, and ad revenue shares worth millions of dollars. This offers lessons for New Zealand broadcasters and niche studios facing disruption.
• Podcasting is rapidly shifting from audio to video, with a leading platform now offering video on over 60% of top shows since 2022. By 2026, video-enabled podcasts are set to become even more prevalent as audiences seek richer, more immersive experiences. Deloitte predicts annual global ad revenues for podcasts and vodcasts will reach roughly US$5 billion in 2026 - a nearly 20% year-over-year increase, underscoring accelerating growth and opportunity.

“Entertainment as we know it is experiencing a tectonic shift. Today, audiences binge broadcast series on streaming platforms, follow creators on social feeds, watch micro-dramas on their phones, and tune into podcasts that look like TV shows. Generative video is accelerating this evolution, blurring the lines between studios, creators, and platforms, while redefining what entertainment means,” notes Dr. Tim Bottke, Deloitte Global Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment sector leader.

Read the full report.