€122 billion investment needed by 2030 to meet Ireland’s housing targets, Deloitte’s Crane Survey Report finds
- 60,000 homes a year unlikely to be achieved amid slowdown in commencements and decline in planning grants.
- Investment of up to €16.4 billion is needed this year to set Ireland on track to meet Government housing targets, rising to €24.1 billion in 2030.
- Deloitte estimates that residential completions will reach 33,000 homes in 2025, as Government targets 41,000.
- Delivery of new student accommodation at the lowest level since Deloitte’s records began.
- Office completions in Dublin surged last year, but delivery pipeline to weaken sharply beyond 2025.
- Hotel room delivery declined by 17% year-on-year, but 4,060 rooms are under construction as of Q1 2025.
A total investment of €122 billion is needed between now and 2030 if Ireland is to meet its housing targets, Deloitte’s new Crane Survey Report has found.
The latest addition of Deloitte’s annual development review and outlook report shows an investment of €16.4 billion is required this year rising to €24.1 billion by 2030 to achieve the Government’s target of 60,000 homes a year.
Given the scale of the challenge, the report finds that Ireland is unlikely to reach or maintain the annual output of 60,000 homes. It says this is signalled by a decline in planning permissions and subdued commencements.
The report estimates a total housing output of 33,000 this year, below the Government’s target of 41,000. It states that risks to delivery in 2025 are ‘tilted to the downside’ and that in the absence of a ‘healthy planning pipeline’ it is very difficult to see the required level of 60,000 homes a year being achieved in the first instance or maintained.
The Deloitte Crane Survey Report is the most comprehensive analysis of construction activity across Ireland’s cities, tracking what’s being built and where and what this means for the country’s economic and social priorities.
Tenure |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
Social |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
|
Affordable |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
Cost Rental |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
|
Subtotal |
7.8 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
9.9 |
|
Private |
8.6 |
9.4 |
10.6 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
14.2 |
|
Total |
16.4 |
17.2 |
19.3 |
21.3 |
23.3 |
24.1 |
121.6 |
Table: Capital required (€’bn)
More needed to increase housing supply
A total of just over 30,230 new homes were delivered in 2024, a drop of 7% on 2023, the Crane Survey Report shows. It predicts this year’s total will rise to 33,000, which is an improvement, but below the Government’s target of 41,000.
The report states that just 32,400 homes were granted planning permission last year, down 3%. It says this figure is “particularly stark” as it represents just two-thirds of what is needed each year if Ireland is to deliver the 60,000 homes a year required to meet current housing need and future population growth.
Deloitte’s analysis shows the drop in granted planning permissions was driven by a substantial reduction in the number of apartments which received planning, down 39% year on year.
A further breakdown of planning permissions data shows that units in large scale developments of 100+ units per scheme accounted for 32% (10,439) of all units granted planning permission in 2024. This has decreased significantly from its peak of 56% (23,731 units) in 2022.
The report shows commencements soared to 69,060 units in 2024, up 121% year on year, but this was linked to expiring incentives, which were ultimately extended. It says commencements have been subdued in the opening months of this year.
Deloitte says the government’s decision in May 2025 to extend planning permissions for schemes due to expire shortly is welcomed. It also states that the recently announced reforms to the current Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) model are a welcome step in the right direction, but, on their own, are unlikely to yield a significant activation in commencements.
The report says that more policy initiatives, which target the cost and viability of delivery, in particular for apartments, are required. This should include incentives that are targeted, time-bound, transparent, safe-guarded and regularly monitored.
Viability constraints limit delivery of new student accommodation
In 2024, just 895 purpose-built student accommodation bedspaces (PBSA) completed construction, the Crane Report Survey shows.
This was down from 1,630 bedspaces in 2023 and represents the lowest level since Deloitte’s records began in 2016.
The delivery of PBSA bedspaces was confined to the country’s two largest cities, with 620 at NovelBottle Works at the former Coca-Cola bottle factory on the Carrigrohane Road in Cork and 190 bedspaces at The Residence on Prussia Street in Dublin. The remaining bedspaces were delivered at Blackhall Place in Stoneybatter in Dublin where a refurbishment added an additional 80 beds.
As of the end of Q1 2025, 1,400 PBSA bedspaces were under construction across six schemes. This compares to 1,160 bedspaces at the same time last year. Construction is spread across Galway, Dublin, Limerick and Kildare.
Although improved on last year’s Crane Survey, the report states that construction activity continues to underestimate the level of activity within the sector, as the planning pipeline remains active. In total, there are over 8,800 bedspaces with planning permission granted as of Q1 2025 across Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway.
Deloitte’s report says that despite the demand fundamentals and the requirement for new student accommodation bedspaces, viability constraints, along with planning delays through appeals, mean it is difficult to estimate what proportion of these bedspaces will commence construction and add to the overall stock.
Ireland is projected to reach 240,000 full-time students by 2030, while the number of international students has increased by 33% since 2020.
Rise in new office space in the Dublin market masks fall in construction activity
Completions in the Dublin office market rose last year to 169,500 sq m, a substantial increase on 2023 volumes of 95,400 sq m.
Deloitte’s report, however, warns that this rise was expected and should not be regarded as an indication of increased construction activity within the sector. Instead, it reflects the completion of an overhang of stock.
As of Q1 2025 a total of 144,450 sq m was under construction in Dublin city, meaning the delivery pipeline is significantly reduced and in total just 63,350 sq m is due to be delivered in 2025.
A further 86,500 sq m of office space is due to reach practical completion in 2026, however this is largely driven by Harcourt Square in Dublin which is pre-let in full and Waterfront Central in North Wall Quay in Dublin, 60% of which will be occupied by Citi Bank.
The report says that the only delivery expected in 2027 based on current construction statistics is 1 Adelaide Road (14,850 sq m) which is already pre-let in full.
This means 2027 may be the first year since 2015 that no new office space will be delivered in the city.
Increased activity in hospitality market
The volume of new rooms added to the hospitality market declined last year. Just 1,358 new keys were added in 2024, a decrease of 17% annually.
As of Q1 2025, some 4,060 rooms were under construction, however, with Dublin absorbing the lion’s share. This represents a significant rise on last year’s Crane Survey (2,850 rooms) as several large hotels commenced construction, including at Dublin Airport, where 412 rooms are set to be delivered by Accor and The Arora Group.
In total, 1,410 new rooms are due to be added in 2025. A further 2,510 beds are due to be delivered in 2026, with the remaining beds under construction due to be delivered in 2027.
Commenting on the overall level of housing output, Kate English, Chief Economist at Deloitte Ireland, said:
We’re seeing cranes across the skyline, but not enough where they’re needed most. We need to increase output substantially, and the Deloitte Crane Survey Report outlines policy initiatives which focus on reducing the cost and therefore the viability of delivery, especially for apartments. What this research reinforces is that the biggest issue facing Ireland right now isn’t demand, it’s supply. Whether it’s homes, student beds, or affordable units, we’re simply not building enough to meet the needs of a growing population and a resilient economy.
English added:
A stable policy environment is crucial in Ireland, as inconsistency in housing policy will deter and dampen investor confidence in Ireland. Without stability, capital will be redirected to jurisdictions offering more predictable and investor-friendly environments. This is not a hypothetical risk, it is a market reality.
On the need for increased private investment in housing, Daniel Lockley, Deloitte Ireland, Debt & Capital Advisory partner, said:
In order to meet the Government’s housing targets, we need to create an investment environment that provides certainty from a policy perspective. Demographic trends, along with Ireland’s resilient economy makes it, on paper, an attractive location with strong underlying fundamentals. International capital is on the side lines and if Government can create a stable and supportive investment environment, we will see increased investment across all tenure types. However, critical infrastructure delivery and enhancement of apartment viability needs to be at the core of any further policy decisions.
Commenting on commercial property market trends, English said:
While the focus remains on delivering much-needed homes, we shouldn’t lose sight of concerning delivery trends in the commercial property market. With new office space expected to decrease dramatically this year and no speculative space delivered beyond 2026, supply of modern, high-quality spaces located in areas of demand is likely to become increasingly tight.
This is difficult to perceive now in a market of double-digit vacancy, but a shortage of adequate office space could quickly become a reality in Ireland. This is more acute in regional locations outside of Dublin, where high construction costs make it very challenging to deliver new space. This will have a significant impact, as supply, or lack-of it, will impact where employers choose to locate or expand their workforce.
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