Nordic AI investment is rising – but firms risk missing out on business value

The survey shows how approximately 70% of Nordic firms are allocating 10% or more of their IT budget to AI-related efforts – with a quarter of total Nordic respondents allocating more than 20%. The firms that are most successful at realising business value from AI are allocating even higher portions of their budget, with approximately 75% replying that more than 20% of the IT budget is allocated to AI. 

The majority of Nordic survey respondents claim that ROI from AI investments is at 40% or higher, which for many industries would normally imply a very attractive investment case. However, when comparing Nordic firms with the rest of Europe, it appears that they expect slower realisation of benefits. Only one third of Nordic companies realise benefits from their most successful AI initiatives within 2 years, while almost half of European firms achieve this. Zooming in on the fastest value realisation examples, namely those that achieve benefits in less than a year, Nordic firms are less likely to achieve this than the European peers. 
 

Not just another technology project: From IT-led to business-driven AI 

A significant barrier to AI’s transformative impact in the Nordics may be a structural one: AI is often owned by IT, not the business. Our findings show that in the Nordics, the AI agenda is predominantly driven by the CIO (32% compared to 23% in rest of Europe) (see Figure 1), and fewer organizations have a dedicated Chief AI Officer (CAIO) (13% compared to 20% in rest of Europe). Additionally, AI is less integrated into corporate strategy, with only 58% of Nordic respondents agreeing it is an explicit part, compared to 65% across Europe. 

When the AI agenda sits primarily with the CIO, the focus naturally leans toward technology-first objectives – building technical capabilities - rather than driving transformative change in business models and processes. This highlights a critical distinction in AI leadership. While a CIO typically treats AI as a technology capability to be scaled and secured, this perspective differs fundamentally from other executive viewpoints. A Chief Strategy Officer (CSO), for instance, frames AI as a portfolio of strategic choices to gain competitive advantage (a role not explicitly captured in our survey question), while a dedicated CAIO is tasked with using AI as the engine for complete business transformation. If business leaders aren't in the driver's seat, the AI agenda tends to get stuck on IT projects, which keeps it from reaching its full potential. 

This IT-centric approach correlates with the fact that more than a third of Nordic organizations have the greatest number of use cases within IT, and it can limit the business’s understanding of AI’s full potential, often resulting in less ambitious use cases. This dynamic is reinforced by how AI use cases are identified: 43% of Nordic respondents report function- or employee-driven bottom-up identification, compared with 32% in the rest of Europe. While inclusive, bottom-up identification can fragment priorities, constrain funding, and slow the shift to transformational, cross-enterprise outcomes. 

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Accelerating value: From slower value realization to transformative impact  

An article that explored the Europe-wide findings from the same survey highlights a paradox of "rising investment and elusive returns" which is mirrored among Nordic organizations. Nordic organizations are not hesitant to invest in AI; more than half (55%) of respondents increased their AI spending by over 10% last year, and 68% plan to increase their AI investments with more than 10% in the coming year (see Figure 2).  

The top reasons for increasing investments include “more use cases have been identified across the organization,” “increased internal capacity from improved data or data infrastructure,” and “response to strong ROI from past investments in AI.” Even where value has progressed more slowly than anticipated, Nordic organizations show confidence in the potential of AI initiatives.  

While ROI on typical AI use cases in the Nordics is comparable to the rest of Europe (52% achieve 40% or more ROI in the Nordics compared to 55% in the rest of Europe), expectations for emerging technologies diverge sharply. Less than 40% of Nordic organizations expect significant ROI from generative AI within a year, compared to over half of their European peers. The divide is even greater for agentic AI, where 58% of Nordic respondents, who are already using agentic AI, anticipate a timeline of 3+ years for significant ROI, versus just 37% in the rest of Europe (see Figure 3). This is in line with findings from our State of GenAI in the Nordics Q4 report from last year, which indicated that fewer Nordic organizations were exploring agentic AI, compared to European counterparts. 

This caution reflects not a true absence of opportunity but could be the result of an IT-centric approach where business functions are insufficiently empowered to identify AI’s full potential. Agentic AI enables many new use cases and therefore if Nordic organizations are sleeping on agentic AI, it might explain the barrier.

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Shifting gears: From cost reduction to top-line growth 

The survey indicates that successful Nordic AI initiatives focus on efficiency gains. Contrasting with rest of Europe, there is significantly less emphasis on leveraging AI to drive top-line growth, with only 33% of successful Nordic AI initiatives targeting revenue opportunities, compared to 47% in Europe (see Figure 4). This may suggest that Nordic firms regard AI more as a lever for optimization than growth, or that growth-oriented AI initiatives are regarded as less successful in the Nordics. Regardless, they risk falling behind their European peers when it comes to producing the disruptive, revenue-generating innovation that defines top-tier AI leaders. 

To secure long term commercial relevance and maximize value creation it is essential to balance the investment budget so that it covers both optimization of core operations and innovative growth-oriented efforts. A larger portion of AI spend must therefore be allocated to transformative use cases. Furthermore, with many Nordic companies anchoring their AI spend in the IT department, leaders must question if enough is being done to commit budget to transformational and customer-oriented elements – including for instance, customer experience and process redesign – that are required to realize value. 

Taking a bottom-up approach to use case identification is useful to ensure wide organizational involvement and awareness but may hamper holistic thinking and lead to fragmentation of efforts with less return on investment. This may explain how 34% of Nordic respondents cite “lack of viable use cases” as the main barrier for AI initiatives. A better approach involves building a long-term target picture for what the business will look like in 3-5 years with AI as an embedded component in all functions. Then, based on this target picture, identify specific use cases and shape AI initiatives accordingly.  

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Conclusion: From cautious follower to decisive leader 

Nordic companies have already experienced mixed results from past digitalization efforts, often finding that anticipated benefits were not fully realized. As AI emerges as the next major technological leap, it is critical for Nordic organizations to apply lessons learned from previous initiatives and ensure AI is positioned as a source of new business capabilities – not just another IT project. 

The current approach to AI in the Nordics isn’t necessarily a problem – rather, it can indicate that great potential present which have not been fully realized. So far, Nordic firms appear to assume a somewhat cautious and technology-focused approach to AI investments and experience a slower realization of benefits. The next level entails visioning the target picture for a business with AI embedded and using this to detail use cases and roadmaps. By making AI a central part of business strategy, and measuring success with clear, meaningful goals and metrics, Nordic companies can catch up with their European peers. 

To do this, Nordic firms need to acknowledge that the biggest challenges in value realization of AI are often not related to the technology but to the transformative part of the business and organization, which might be difficult to learn from others.  

In the latest episode of Tech Talks, you can listen to the perspectives of Louise Døvling Andersen, one of the authors on the report. Tune in below!