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Future of Health

The TrendRadar: Future of Health provides a systematic overview of the most relevant trends in the life sciences and health care industry.

Why we created the TrendRadar: Future of Health

 


The sheer volume of trends sweeping through the life sciences and health care industry today can be confusing. Equally, changes in technology, business environment and business models are emerging swiftly in the digital age. Making sense of them – identifying trends that require urgent attention and those that are simply worth watching – is a vital task for companies and organisations.

Businesses that are always aware of relevant trends avoid missing out on a competitive advantage. They also lower the risk of losing ground to the competition. More importantly, they can proactively identify opportunities, adapt their strategy if needed, and flourish.

Discover the TrendRadar: Future of Health below by clicking on the coloured circles that each represent a (macro) trend:

Patient 2.0

While most people trust health experts, such as physicians, numerous polls have shown that life sciences and health care rank among the least trusted industries. In particular, pharma companies and health insurance providers face low levels of trust or even distrust. But trust is a critical asset for companies, influencing many factors, from their chances of gaining and maintaining customers to their ability to recruit talent. Consumer trust also gives health companies the incentive to innovate and provides support for the industry’s contributions and mission to provide valuable, life-saving therapies.

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Patients have access to a wealth of information about their health and well-being. An obvious and widespread source of information is the world wide web. People are able, for example, to research possible causes of their symptoms on medical websites in minutes. Similarly, the internet allows access to high-quality information, such as scientific publications and medical research results. Informed patients tend to be more demanding, which can create a challenge for many actors in the health industry, especially doctors and pharmacies.

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Patient organisations and individual patients will be powerful influencers of healthcare policy and companies in the health industry. Today, groups of patients can connect and coordinate easily on a global level, thanks to the internet. The rising use of social media also means individual patients can have broad influence. This global connectivity via social media is facilitating movements capable of applying pressure on policymakers and businesses in the health industry.

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Data Era

Various actors in the health industry, such as hospitals, medical practices, and insurance companies, regularly exchange patients’ medical records. Making this possible requires a common data infrastructure and shared standards and processes. Interoperability of patient data between the various actors in the healthcare system has the potential to increase the efficiency and quality of care significantly, and therefore improve patient outcomes. With interoperability of data silo mentalities can be broken and flexibility increased. Interoperability also creates a platform for collaborative research based on R&D and more effective and efficient clinical trials.

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Image download failed.Predictive Analytics uses algorithms to evaluate historical and recent data. In so doing, it seeks to predict future scenarios. The objective is to use these predictions to deploy health resources as efficiently as possible. Predicting human behaviour will increasingly come into scope with predictive intelligence. The software will be able to predict the next steps of individual patients. This will help prepare the ground for automated decision-making.

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Cyberattacks can come from anywhere and have many motives. Typically, perpetrators are motivated by financial interests. Attackers blackmail their victims using so-called ransomware. Insufficiently secured systems are vulnerable. Artificial intelligence is playing an ever-greater role in both attack and defence. In the future, the need for security will be balanced against freedom and convenience.

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Enormous advances in digitisation have opened access to medical data that, unlike traditional clinical trials, is generated in patients' everyday lives, so-called real-world data (RWD). RWD has a wide range of applications – from assessing the safety and effectiveness of therapies to risk-benefit trade-offs for specific diseases. This also includes complex diagnoses and statements about patterns and abnormalities in specific patient groups. The use of RWD can also reduce products’ time to market.

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Image download failed.We all generate a huge amount of data every day. The traces we leave help paint a picture of us from a medically perspective. Patient targeting, using health data from sensors, gathers demographic detail but also health data. This helps medical specialists learn more about us as individuals. Behaviour analysis then forms the basis of a personalised patient journey. By getting to know their customers more precisely, health care providers can motivate them purposefully towards better health outcomes. If data from multiple individuals is combined, smart analysis makes it possible to draw conclusions on the behaviour of specific patient groups.

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Engineered Evolution

Improving physical or cognitive abilities through targeted modification of the human body describes the trend of Human Enhancement. This enables us to offset physical disabilities and overcome natural barriers. Specific pharmaceutical products, such as nootropics, alongside a variety of new technologies are used for the enhancement or boosting of physical and mental performance. Exoskeletons and prosthetics are technological examples used outside the human body while so-called wetware technologies can be implanted inside the body. They allow individuals not only to monitor biological processes but also to influence them for specific purposes.

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Watches and glasses are familiar to everyone. Wearable technologies are digital versions of these devices with new technologies and materials. Smart watches and smart clothes are just two examples of wearable technologies that let us collect bio-vital data. Such data serves to not only prevent health problems but also boost physical performance or optimise other physical activities, such as sleep. Wearables are the next step into an increasingly digitised world.

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The Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) is a connection between the human neural-nervous system and computer systems via special interfaces. The variety of techniques used to transfer data between neural and computer systems can be divided generally into invasive (implants) and non-invasive (electrodes) approaches. The end goal of BCI is to enable thought to interact with every digital system. At present, success has been limited to computer systems collecting and processing neural processes and linking them to a specific activity, rather than the other way round. The control of artificial limbs and the operation of computer systems are among BCI successes so far.

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Economics of Health

Companies in the health industry, especially pharmaceutical businesses and health insurance providers, will develop innovative pricing and reimbursement models. Patient data will play an important role in two ways. First, patients might obtain discounts in exchange for their health data. Second, the availability of patient data may allow profiling, which could enable companies to offer different terms and reimbursements to specific patient groups. For example, individuals with healthy habits (exercise, a balanced diet, etc.) might benefit from lower insurance premiums.

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As with many markets, competition in the life sciences and healthcare industry is rising. One important factor driving this is the catch up of emerging markets, with China leading the way. Companies from emerging markets could soon become significant competitors to current industry leaders. Additionally, firms from other sectors – especially large technology companies, such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook, are likely to enter the health industry. Thus, ‘traditional’ health companies in developed countries should watch out for new players emerging from outside their conventional market.

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In more and more countries, we see the development of a two-tier healthcare system: a small segment of the population has access to premium treatments while a larger segment faces significant limitations in medical services. This has an impact on all players in the healthcare system. It offers an opportunity to sell additional high-end products and services to tier-one patients. But it also creates a limitation and potential risk: that tier-two customers may be unable to access treatments because of limited medical coverage.

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A business ecosystem is a network of organisations – including suppliers, distributors, customers, competitors, government agencies, and so on – involved in the delivery of a specific product or service through both competition and cooperation. In a business ecosystem, companies make strategic partnerships with other firms working on products and services that could improve and disrupt their R&D. In this way, a business gains access to external innovation and expertise. A functioning business ecosystem requires a collaborative, innovative and open mindset and a new operating and governance model with the involvement of collaborators.

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Healthstyle

Remote Healthcare is an approach that does not require patients to be physically present. Patient benefits include 24-hour access to medical services and knowledge. Patients’ vital signs can be tracked using health apps, which also collect data to support their overall treatment. A lack of trust in the secure processing of personal health data is partly to blame for challenges with acceptance levels. This is especially true among older people. Treatment, follow-up treatment and in-patient stays on an entirely remote basis are just as possible as remote surgical procedures.

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In the past, patients with minor medical issues usually approached general practitioners first. Nowadays, we increasingly observe other players in the health industry also providing basic medical services. For example, pharmacies are broadening their range of services and are offering vaccinations, different medical checks and basic medical services, such as wound care and consultation. Such non-conventional service provision could increase further in the future and change the landscape of the healthcare industry.

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Home care aims to provide healthcare and social services at home, delivered by medical and non-medical caregivers. With home care in place, patients can be released from hospital earlier after a medical intervention and be treated at home. Home care lies at the intersection between healthcare and social care. In 2019, the global home care market was valued at USD 281.8 billion. It is forecasted to grow from 2020 to 2027 at an annual rate of about eight per cent. Ageing populations, an increased awareness of home care benefits and a gradually more favourable regulatory environment are expected to fuel this market growth.

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We are each individuals. Medical treatments and personalised therapies that acknowledge individual differences aim to apply the right therapy at the right time to every patient. A much more accurate and individual understanding of diseases has been made possible through advances in medical data collection (biomarkers) and processing alongside deeper insights into epigenetics and the immunity perspective. With this knowledge, healthcare professionals can develop individual treatment plans for patients, optimised to their personal disease profile, needs and lifestyle.

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Medicine has previously been based for the most part on an average-aged white individual. For people with different bodies (age, gender, disability, or ethnicity) the consequence is a possible data gap, leading potentially to false diagnoses and treatments. Inclusive health means to close this gap. Medical textbooks now include photos of black skin conditions, studies on heart attack symptoms in women, pathologies of transgender people, and describe medical care for people with a migrant background or disability.

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There is increased demand for alternative medicines. These are complementary methods for the diagnosis and treatment of illnesses or alleviating pain. Most approaches use herbal ingredients as well as exercise and nutrition to prevent illness. Medical studies are increasingly proving the effectiveness of purely plant-based remedies. However, improper use can have powerful side-effects or may influence the effects of other medicines. Criticism often focuses on the lack of practitioner qualification and control as well as not enough patient safety.

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Increasingly sophisticated medical technology could enable earlier interventions and more effective procedures that reduce or even eliminate the need for pharmaceutical management. This includes advances in robotic surgery, nanotechnology, 3D printing, and tissue engineering. As these technologies become more sophisticated, they could lead to dramatically improved outcomes in cancer, infectious diseases, inflammatory conditions, and chronic pain. Companies working in the disease areas affected should consider adopting some of these technologies. If not, they risk operating in a much smaller market in the future.

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Taking responsibility for ourselves, leading a healthy lifestyle, and reducing our personal risk factors; these are examples how we are becoming more proactive in managing our health. In pursuit of a long and healthy life, we are trying to exercise regularly, get enough sleep, and avoid health risks, such as smoking and drinking to excess. Wearables and other self-tracking devices are among the many new technologies that enable people to record a wide range of data on their lifestyle.

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Research pathways in the healthcare industry are changing. Until recently, most research focused on creating small molecules using chemistry. Now, the focus has shifted to biology and on medicines produced either from living organisms or containing components of living organisms. This new focus opens up an entirely new world of research. Cell and gene therapy, for example, uses the human body’s own DNA to treat and cure disease. Messenger RNA (mRNA) – used in some COVID-19 vaccines – works similarly. Companies are actively seeking out acquisition targets in the marketplace to gain access to the latest research tools and pathways.

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Health sensors enable constant measurement and analysis of health data wherever a patient may be. No longer simply lifestyle gadgets, they have become essential medical assistants. Users can diagnose, treat, check, and optimise their health independently. Using microelectronics and compact sensor systems, a health sensor can be a wearable device, an implant or even printed on the skin.

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As a society and individuals, we place high expectations on ourselves of a good life and excellent work performance. Yet we are unable to always fulfil these high expectations. This can lead to burn-out, anxiety, stress, depression, and loneliness. Limited mental resilience and changing lifestyles are possible sources for increased psychological problems. Effective tools for dealing with psychological problems include mindfulness exercises, such as meditation, and doctors are now prescribing courses in these areas.

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Virtualisation

In the future, we could each have a digital twin. This would be a virtual representation of us, including all the processes that exert influence on us. The digital twin concept has been used in other spheres to create a dynamic simulation at the digital level to mirror products, systems and processes and all their interactions. Using data based on the individual, the digital twin could be used to predict the future health of that individual.

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A variety of treatments are enabled and supported by augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR). Patients suffering from spinal cord injuries, for example, have been helped through digital therapies to partially restore mobility. These technologies can also transform treatments, especially in psychiatry and neurology, and could potentially shape the future of surgery. Neurosurgeons performing AR surgery have recently used headsets with see-through eye displays. The headsets project images of the patient’s internal anatomy, derived from CT scans, in a way that enables surgeons to have a form of x-ray vision.

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How we created the TrendRadar: Future of Health

 

The TrendRadar: Future of Health is based on a screening of industry trends, their assessment by health experts, and categorisation by different levels of urgency. Our trend screening was based on desk research, a trend database, and interviews with various industry experts, which led to the classification of six mega trends (overarching categories) and 28 macro trends (concrete manifestations).

In the assessment, Deloitte professionals and external industry experts evaluated the trends against two criteria: the impact on industry and the time of mainstream adoption. As a result, each trend falls into one of three categories:

Act

Trends have a high to very high impact on the industry. The date of mainstream adoption is expected in the near future or has happened already. If companies have not yet reacted to these trends it is high time to act.

Prepare

Trends have at least a medium impact on the industry and a medium timeframe of mainstream adoption but are not high in both criteria, such as they are in Act trends. For those trends, companies should actively prepare.

Watch

Trends either have a very low to low impact on the industry or their mainstream adoption is not expected in the near future. Trends in this category should be on the watch list.

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