On average, nearly two-thirds of US consumers belong to one-to-five loyalty programs. However, most consumers use 50% or less of their memberships, so the challenge for retailers is developing engaging programs that convert members into users, and in turn, create profitable loyalty. A recent study found that customers who belonged to a retail brand’s loyalty program reported an average of 61% higher trust in that brand than non-loyalty program members. And a consumer industry case study found that increasing trust with existing loyalty program members could potentially boost annual spending by 30%. These gains were primarily attributed to deploying personalised experiences at scale.

Some retailers have honed in on this opportunity. Dillard's outperformed many other department store chains in FY2020-22 by driving customer loyalty through effective merchandising with a strong portfolio of owned private-label and exclusive brands, personalized in-store customer service, and high employee engagement. Ulta Beauty grew its active loyalty program members from 30.7 million in FY2020 to 40.2 million in FY2022, deriving more than 94% of its annual sales from these members in both years. As the company considers its loyalty program a key driver of success, it launched a revamped program in January 2024 with additional perks and a more personalised birthday benefit.

For 2024, we believe that retailers have an opportunity to attain profitable loyalty through personalisation, co-branding, and data monetisation.

The digital acceleration from the pandemic was a boon for online and omnichannel shopping. Tech upgrades helped with some of the shortfalls of the online experience, from fit to envisioning products in homes. Social media and influencers brought products to life in short video content. Digital wallets and new last mile and return options expanded, creating less friction for consumers to click and collect. Despite these advances (and how tired the topic may feel), a cohesive, consistent omniexperience is often lacking, potentially eroding trust.

When we examined trust in various channels, customers purchasing in-store indicated the lowest trust scores. Interestingly, despite lower trust scores than digital channels, physical channels are the most preferred medium of engagement, indicating a significant opportunity for brands to help boost trust amongst a considerable fraction of their customer base.

Some retailers are planning expansive store remodels that can immediately create more pleasant environments and sticky behavior from consumers. Target recently noted that sales increase 2-4% on average during the year once stores are renovated. But we also see an opportunity in innovative tech that uses data to create efficiencies and consistent experiences, potentially building profitable loyalty. These tech tools not only elevate the overall shopping experience but also equip retailers with enhanced data, a more nuanced understanding of shopper profiles, and a competitive advantage by offering a personalised and complete omniexperience.

Retail was built from a supply-focused model to meet the needs of the masses. With consumers wanting more bespoke experiences, retailers are looking for ways to personalize at scale. Deloitte's Future of Consumer work sees this as "a critical transition from mass-market approaches to strategies that prioritise relevance for specific consumer groups. We refer to this shift as an industry moving from mass to micro." Retailers making this shift have an opportunity to delight consumers with product recommendations and tailored interactions, especially if they embed trust at the center of their design.

Half of retail executives are prioritising AI-driven personalized product recommendations in 2024. However, only 5 in 10 retail executives are confident in their company's ability to use AI effectively across their businesses. As retailers gather larger volumes and potentially more sensitive types of data, using this information skillfully is vital to maintain the delicate balance between what data consumers are willing to share and the experiences retailers can offer.