Economic outlook
Weathering change: Canadian businesses navigate renewed uncertainty
A quarterly publication that offers insights from Deloitte economists on trends and events shaping Canadian and international economies, such as economic growth, consumer spending, business investment, trade, market activity, interest rates, and commodity prices.
Key Takeaways
- Trade uncertainty with the United States continues to weigh on the outlook, but policy support could help offset the impact.
- As population growth stalls, the outlook for consumer spending and housing increasingly depends on the resilience of Canada's labour market.
- Many firms are delaying expansion plans amid tariff concerns and uncertainty over US market access.
- Investment gains are still expected to strengthen to 3.5% in 2027, despite the absence of further interest-rate relief.
Weathering change | Canadian businesses navigate renewed uncertainty
Economic outlook: Fall 2026
While Canada's economy has proven more resilient than expected in the first half of the year, persistent trade uncertainty with the United States could make it difficult to maintain that momentum.
Yet periods of disruption often create new opportunities. Government investment, efforts to reduce interprovincial trade barriers, streamlined regulatory processes, and the new Productivity Mega Deduction could help strengthen competitiveness and offset some of the challenges ahead.
Explore the risks shaping Canada's outlook, and the opportunities emerging alongside them, in our fall 2026 Economic outlook: Weathering change.
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