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How Canada can decarbonize by 2050

We’ve made an international commitment to help roll back climate change. Now we need to choose the pathways to reach our target.

Canada has joined a growing list of countries, including Japan, France, and the United Kingdom, in pledging to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This means balancing the planet-warming greenhouse gasses (GHGs) we produce from burning fossil fuels with those we remove by switching to zero carbon alternatives. Reaching net-zero by 2050 is likely our last chance to limit global temperature rise to within 1.5oC by the end of the century. If we miss this window, the global impact could be devastating—not just for those already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change but also for future generations.

Deloitte Canada partnered with Navius Research to look at two possible courses of action. Using their comprehensive gTech model, we charted a business-as-usual path and a potential pathway for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. But how can Canada slash its use of fossil fuels over the next three decades?

Discover how Canada can navigate to net-zero emissions

Decisive action in the short term can restore lost and degraded habitats, as well as protect the longevity of ecological functions and ecosystem services. With long-term funding and indigenous knowledge in sustainable land management, protected areas can be properly managed.

Turning electricity into a major source of power will require more infrastructure support and investment, like expanding and modernizing electricity grids to make widespread electric vehicle use affordable. Increased investments in electric buses and rail could encourage cleaner-energy transit systems.

An area in which Canada is an emerging world leader, clean DAC is contingent on the scale and progress of advancements in this technology. Since DAC consumes energy, its economic and environmental viability depends its proximity to renewable energy sources.

Just 7 percent of our energy is supplied by non-hydro renewables. Diversifying supply chains for materials vital to renewable infrastructure could increase the usage of renewables. Biogenic, low-carbon fuel innovations could be used in transport sectors where electricity isn’t viable.

Natural gas has lower carbon emissions for power generation and transportation. In keeping with Canada’s commitment to reform fossil-fuel subsidies, pricing policies should be transparent, monitored, and enforced, and should reflect the true economic cost of the energy supplied.

Clean hydrogen application in the industrial sector, transportation, and buildings could boost resilience in Canada’s energy sector. New technologies can be scaled to create market demand for low-carbon hydrogen and decarbonizing sectors that cannot yet be fully electrified.

Canada must invest more in technologies that improve energy efficiencies for transportation, buildings, industrial, and agricultural and forestry operations. Policies to incentivize both eco-friendly retrofits can be expanded to accelerate the adoption of technology that improves energy efficiencies in buildings.

With five large-scale commercial projects now in operation, Canada has the second largest CCUS capacity in the world. Most CCUS technologies, however, are still in the early stages of development and need refinement and cost management.

Small modular reactors are promising for powering remote communities and off-grid industrial projects. At scale, however, modular reactors are currently unproven. Deploying them could involve lower initial capital costs compared with their large-reactor counterparts.

New regulations that limit methane emissions from fugitive sources—like the drilling, extraction, and transportation process—will be applied in the near term to the oil and gas sector.

The various elements in the chart above are all viable resources to drive decarbonization in Canada. Understanding the sequence of these variables, and their interplay with emissions, can help us model a net-zero future for Canada.

It will be a significant challenge, given that Canada is among the world’s top per-capita emitters of GHGs—we emit more than double the G20 average. While the country’s emissions account for just 2 percent of global GHGs, this is no excuse for inaction. In fact, this positions us to stake out a leadership position on an international front.

Fossil fuels account for 70 percent of the energy consumed in Canada

How can we reduce our dependency on them over the next 30 years? Fortunately, several proven and emerging technologies that could underpin the decarbonization effort are already available in Canada. This article will explore these options, and how understanding and implementing can help nudge us toward our commitment over the next thirty years.

Proven solutions

 

The next decade must focus on a rapid transition to carbon-free energy systems. This would mean investing in solutions that are commercially viable today, while piloting emerging technologies that have the potential to unlock significant carbon reduction in the decades to follow.

Despite their rapidly falling costs, both wind and solar power are underutilized in this country. Only 7 percent of Canada’s energy is currently supplied by non-hydro renewable sources. We could increase usage by diversifying the supply chains for the commodities that are vital to building renewable infrastructure, such as solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage. Decision-makers should bear in mind that the speed of development of renewables and supporting ecosystems can set the pace for the shift away from fossil fuels.
Biogenic energy sources—including biofuel, renewable natural gas, and biomass—could also power transportation and buildings. Low-carbon fuel innovation could advance emission reductions in sectors where low-carbon electricity poses challenges, such as heavy-duty vehicles and freight trains.

Holistic land-use practices could position Canada as a global leader in green transformation and power growth. Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use changes contribute to nearly one-quarter of global GHG emissions; under the Paris Agreement, about one-quarter of Canada’s 2030 mitigation pledge is expected to come from better stewardship of the land.
Loss of carbon contained in soils and terrestrial systems—primarily due to land-use change— perpetuates the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere at the same time as it limits the inherent ability of ecosystems to withdraw that same carbon when necessary. Decisive action in the short term can restore lost and degraded habitats, as well as protect the longevity of ecological functions and ecosystem services. With a commitment to long-term funding, protected areas can be properly stewarded. Indigenous knowledge and practices in sustainable land and resource management can also be applied to achieve a net-zero future. There is much to be learnt from Indigenous practices in sustainable resource management; from traditions that dictate taking from the land only what’s needed, and only what nature can replace.
The potential for market-based carbon offset projects could help to vault Canada into global leadership. Nature-based solutions, which are climate solutions that harness the power of nature to reduce emissions and improve adaptation, can elevate Canada’s expertise/renown for carbon offset projects while strengthening the resilience and renewal of the country’s natural ecosystems.

Canada must invest more in technologies that improve energy efficiencies for transportation, buildings, industrial, and agricultural and forestry operations. Near-term investment in sustainable retrofits for buildings and homes will be needed to improve that resilience to climate events. Policies to incentivize both residential and commercial retrofits can be accelerated and expanded to encourage the widespread adoption of technology that improves energy efficiencies in buildings.

Turning to electricity as a source of energy will require the production of and infrastructure support for a great deal more, including the expansion and modernization of electricity grids to make widespread electric-vehicle use affordable and attractive compared to internal combustion engines. A growing list of jurisdictions around the world are taking steps to ban the sale of internal combustion engines, including most recently Quebec on the sale of new light internal combustion engines by 2035 and in British Columbia by 2040.
If we want to stay on track to achieve Canada’s 2050 net-zero emissions ambitions, the global market share of electric passenger vehicles and freight trucks needs to increase from 2 percent, where it is now, to 30 percent by 2030 at the latest. To nudge this number up, more investment must be made to increase the deployment of recharging infrastructure, such as public charging stations, making it widely available for public use. In Canada, near-term investments in domestic electric vehicle plants coupled with other market incentives, such as robust carbon-pricing, could improve the country’s position in attaining a sustainable electric-auto industry.
In the long term, innovation in battery technology could support changes in power demand, facilitate the integration of renewables, and accelerate the potential for the electrification of heavy-duty freight transportation. Further innovation in smart grids could improve the efficiency of distribution networks and optimize Canada’s power profile.

High-carbon fuels like coal can be substituted with natural gas, which has lower carbon emissions, for power generation and transportation. In keeping with Canada’s commitment to reform fossil-fuel subsidies, pricing policies should be transparent, monitored, and enforced, and should reflect the true economic cost of the energy supplied.

To address Canada’s commitment to reduce methane (by 40-45 percent below 2012 levels by 2025), new regulations that limit methane emissions from fugitive sources—like the drilling, extraction, and transportation process—will be applied in the near term to the oil and gas sector. Considering the significant carbon intensity of methane, ensuring they are curtailed will be critical for the resilience of both natural gas exporters and gas export markets, otherwise natural gas will not be viewed as a low carbon option.

Emerging technologies

 

A long-term decarbonization strategy would rely on emerging technologies—most of which are currently in the demonstration state, and not yet commercially viable. Their deployment would rely on policy and investment decisions that are taken in the next five to 10 years.

CCUS is the process of capturing carbon dioxide emissions at sources like power plants, cement-production facilities, manufacturing operations, and oil sands, and either reusing or storing it so it will not enter the atmosphere. With five large-scale commercial projects now in operation, Canada has the second-largest CCUS capacity in the world. Most CCUS technologies, however, are still in the early stages of development. They would benefit from scaled demonstration and continued innovation to refine the technology and manage costs.

As an alternative fuel, hydrogen is plentiful, non-toxic, efficient, and safe. Clean hydrogen could boost the resilience of Canada’s energy sector through various applications in the industrial sector, transportation, and buildings. New technologies can be scaled to create fresh market demand for low-carbon hydrogen, and to decarbonize those sectors that cannot yet be fully electrified. Support for hydrogen end-use technologies could provide resource-based provinces the opportunity to lead the transition to a low-carbon future.

An area in which Canada is an emerging world leader, DAC technology captures and uses carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The process uses industrial-size fans to direct air through a chemical process that strips away carbon, which is then stored underground or sold to industrial customers. Once thought to be unrealistic, several DAC pilot projects are either in operation or under construction globally.
The potential of DAC to reduce carbon emissions is contingent on the scale and progress of advancements in this technology. Since DAC consumes energy, its economic and environmental viability depends on being in proximity to renewable energy sources. DAC could contribute to Canada’s technological exports while reducing GHGs on a global scale.

Small modular reactors (SMRs) produce clean power, and are smaller in both size and output than a traditional nuclear power plant. These are promising for powering remote communities and off-grid industrial projects. Although SMR technology is currently unproven at scale, deploying them could involve lower initial capital costs compared with their large-reactor counterparts. The federal government recently announced a $20 million investment (in Ontario-based Terrestrial Energy Inc.) to help bring SMRs to the Canadian market.

A decarbonized and prosperous Canada

 

In the journey to zero carbon emissions globally, a few nations need to lead for many to follow. Canada should be at the forefront. There’s no question it will demand change from our governments and businesses, from every family and individual. We have what it takes: Strong national alignment, with many businesses on-board to reduce emissions, the financial sector ready to act on climate risk reduction and low-carbon growth, policymakers considering the best strategies, and industrious entrepreneurs

Canadian organizations must continue to build new solutions and powerful technologies in clean energy to bring down costs, commercialize promising ideas, and spur investment. Indigenous knowledge and stewardship also holds significant potential to amplify the protection and growth of rich natural landscapes. We can join forces through a collective will for planetary health, and make decarbonization a national, non-partisan project.

A net-zero Canada is a net benefit for all. Let’s start now.

 

Deloitte Canada partnered with Navius Research, a private, independent research firm, to model the net-zero 2050 pathways.

 

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