Deloitte Canada's Holiday Retail Outlook reveals spending on gifts is expected to drop 5%

Toronto, October 14, 2026 – Today, Deloitte Canada released the 2026 Holiday Retail Outlook, The season of savings, which reveals that spending on gifts and gift cards is projected to drop 5% this year, signalling that Canadians will be increasingly intentional with their purchases. A sharp decline in spending on holiday entertaining and experiences is also expected (down 22% and 20%, respectively), contributing to the lowest overall holiday spending level since the survey began ($1,305).

Further findings suggest that Canadians are entering this shopping season with heightened caution amid ongoing economic uncertainty, with 83% expressing concern about the impact of tariffs on prices and the broader economy. As a result, value will be a primary driver of spending decisions this year, with 78% actively looking for more discounts, promotions, and sales to protect their budgets.

“Canadians are not cancelling the holiday season, but economic uncertainty is influencing their spending decisions, making them far more discerning,” says Shaunna Conway, Partner and National Retail Leader at Deloitte Canada. “This shift is creating more price-conscious consumers, and retailers that offer clear, compelling value propositions will be best positioned to earn a place in shoppers’ holiday baskets this year.”

Deloitte's Holiday Retail Outlook reveals that nearly one third of Canadians (29%) intend to spend less this year as they become increasingly focused on maximizing value. At the same time, shopping journeys are becoming more fragmented, with consumers expecting to visit an average of 16 stores and digital destinations when looking for gifts, up from 14 last year. Notably, consumers aged 35 to 44 plan to shop at an average of 23 retailers this holiday season.

The report also highlights the growing role of artificial intelligence in the retail journey. Nearly four in ten consumers (39%) plan to use AI for holiday shopping, primarily for gift inspiration, price comparison and deal discovery, compared with 25% in 2025. While generative AI is emerging as a new discovery tool, only 19% of shoppers would be comfortable allowing AI to make purchases on their behalf.

"AI is becoming an important discovery tool for Canadians, but they continue to rely on established retail platforms for completing purchases," says Conway. "Retailers should consider AI as a way to enhance decision-making and create more relevant, personalized experiences. It’s a powerful asset they can leverage to show up and stand out during the most competitive retail season of the year. "

Additional key findings from Deloitte Canada’s 2026 Holiday Retail Outlook:

• Economic concerns remain high. 1 in 3 Canadians (34%) say their household finances are worse than a year ago (vs. 32% last year), while 45% expect the economy to weaken by 2027. Further, concerns about the possibility of a recession have risen (74% vs. 70% last year).
• Holiday spending is expected to drop 14% this year to $1,305, compared to $1,521 in 2025. Lower spending on holiday entertaining (alcohol, cannabis, and groceries) and experiences (travel, vacation, and dining out), down 22% and 20% respectively, is driving much of the overall decline. However, gifts, groceries and travel remain the largest planned categories.
• Shoppers stay intensely value-conscious in their spending decisions. 78% are planning on actively seeking the best deals to protect their budgets, and 77% prioritize reasonable prices and value when choosing a retailer.
• Trust is part of the value equation for consumers. While nearly 8 in 10 (79%) expect holiday prices to be higher than in 2025 (up from 70% last year), 63% believe retailers are raising prices more than necessary. These perceptions make value a question of trust as well as affordability.
• Canadian and local ownership matters, but value still leads retailer choice. Nearly half of consumers (45%) consider Canadian or local ownership important when choosing where to shop, but value remains paramount, with 35% unwilling to pay a premium for products based solely on local ownership.
• Black Friday is shaping up to be the defining conversion moment this holiday season. More than half (51%) of budgets are expected to be spent by the end of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period, indicating that retailers must build momentum early in the season through compelling offers, reliable product availability, and seamless shopping experiences to capture demand when shoppers are ready to spend their money.
• Traditional discovery channels still dominate. While 55% of planned holiday spending is expected to take place in-store, compared with 42% online, Amazon (65%) and Google (64%) remain the leading sources for holiday shopping research.
• Generative AI is emerging as an additional discovery tool, not yet the primary starting point for shoppers.1 in 2 consumers (50%) aged 18 to 34 would use AI for gift inspiration, compared with only 18% of those aged 65+.
• Consumers are caught in a data-sharing paradox. While 46% are willing to provide personal information for promotions, nearly 7 in 10 (68%) worry about data misuse or unclear data practices. These significant privacy concerns highlight the need for retailers to prioritize transparency, trust, and customer control.

Learn more about the 2026 Holiday Retail Outlook.

The Deloitte Canada survey was conducted between August 28 and September 4, 2026, polling Canadian consumers across age groups, financial situations, and regions. All figures are in Canadian dollars.