Deloitte Access Economics Employment Forecasts

04 June 2026: Several large Australian employers have announced redundancies or restructures attributed, at least in part, to automation and AI adoption. However, announced individual job losses tell only part of the story.

According to the June 2026 edition of Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly Employment Forecasts report, the structural impacts of AI on the labour market are starting to be seen and are expected to become more noticeable over the next few years.

To examine the effects of AI on the Australian labour market systematically, Deloitte Access Economics has assessed occupations based on the extent to which an occupation’s core tasks can be automated by AI versus the necessity for human performance, using Deloitte Human Capital’s Work Analyser tool.

A group of 82 ‘AI-disrupted’ occupations are expected to face the highest risk of declining employment, as AI replaces tasks which have less requirement for human judgement, empathy or interpersonal skills.

Job vacancies in some of these disrupted occupations have started to fall as AI begins to reshape Australia’s labour market. However, employment levels in these occupations have continued to rise to date, suggesting the effects are being felt more in recruitment than redundancies.

Releasing the report, Deloitte Access Economics Partner David Rumbens said: “Limited evidence of widespread job losses could suggest that AI is currently playing more of an augmentative role in the Australian labour market, with Australians less likely to use AI primarily for automation.

“These augmentation-focused usage patterns suggest AI could deliver much- needed productivity gains while job gains are still seen. However, this may also simply reflect the current stage of adoption, with AI tools still used mainly to boost individual productivity before a later phase of more significant change as work processes are reorganised.

“Vacancies are a leading indicator of employment growth, and some evidence of lower vacancies in some AI-disrupted occupations suggests that employment growth could substantially moderate in the coming years due to AI.”

Tracking the impact of AI on the broader workforce

Deloitte’s Organisation Design, Workforce Strategy and Planning lead Partner Sarah Rogers said: “These AI-disrupted occupations are concentrated in white-collar, knowledge-intensive industries such as financial and insurance services, professional, scientific and technical services, and information media, but the disrupted tasks within these roles often rely less on judgement, empathy and people skills.”

An analysis of these occupations found that even without accounting for AI adoption, employment growth for AI-disrupted occupations is forecast to slow from an annual average of 1.9% over the past five years to 1.2% over the next five years.

Once AI effects are incorporated – that is, the economy-wide diffusion of AI – the forecast annual average growth rate for AI-disrupted occupations may slow to 0.5% over the next five years, a reduction in growth of 0.7 percentage points.

But there is also a group of occupations expected to see stronger labour demand with AI, as AI complements skills in those occupations and makes them more valuable. AI use is also expected to produce a small, but broad based lift for all other workers as AI-driven productivity gains flow through the wider economy.  

Sarah Rogers continued: “Structural labour market impacts may change as AI increasingly begins to reinvent workflows, not just augment them. The volume of investment in AI over the past years suggests that AI will likely move along the adoption curve much faster than previous technologies, creating winners and losers in the process.

“Therefore, executives should not be complacent in their existing business models, work design and workforce strategies, and workers should seek to upskill and retrain in AI. Deloitte research shows that organisations are twice as likely to exceed their return on investment expectations for AI when they prioritise work redesign and thoughtfully redesign human and machine interactions.”

Labour market weakens as economy slows

The impact of AI on work is occurring in the context of a labour market that is softening in the face of higher interest rates, the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East and a push to rein in spending across all levels of government.

Annual employment growth in the year to April 2026 was 0.9%, a significant slowdown from the 1.9% average recorded over the previous three years, when hiring across the public sector provided stronger support. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points since December 2025.

Overall, the pace of employment growth is expected to ease from 2.1% (304,600 workers) in financial year 2024–25 to 1.3% (192,500 workers) in 2025–26 and 1.1% (155,500 workers) in 2026–27.

David Rumbens said: “With economic uncertainty rising, businesses are expected to behave more cautiously, tempering hiring decisions and constraining employment growth over the coming year. With government budgets stretched, public sector jobs growth is also expected to ease further.

“Hiring momentum in non-market sectors like health care, education and public administration has softened, likely reflecting widespread fiscal restraint by Australian federal and state governments. Accordingly, annual employment growth in the year to the December quarter of 2025 was 1.5%, a significant slowdown from the 4.5% average seen over the previous three years.

“Meanwhile, conditions in the market sector are showing signs of recovery, with employment growth picking up. Overall, the market sector contributed approximately 61% of total employment gains in the December quarter of 2025, and vacancy indicators suggest this trend may persist in the near term."

On a sectoral level:

• The human services workforce is anticipated to grow by 3.0% (162,300 workers) in 2025–26 and 1.6% (90,600 workers) in 2026–27, following growth of 4.3% (223,800 workers) in 2024–25.
• Following a challenging year for white-collar employment in 2024–25, recent improvements in market-sector hiring bode well for office-based roles, with the workforce expected to grow by 1.3% (67,300 workers) in 2025–26 and a further 1.0% (52,500 workers) in 2026–27.
• The blue-collar workforce is expected to decline by 1.0% (37,100 workers) in 2025–26, with most of that decline already realised in the first half of the financial year, before growing by just 0.3% (12,400 workers) in 2026–27.

About Employment Forecasts

Employment Forecasts is released quarterly and provides forecasts and commentary for each industry and occupation, plus white collar, blue collar and human services employment. There are three levels of data available: state, city and CBD. Employment Forecasts is particularly useful in the analysis of property market demand.