One year after the OBBBA: Market demand sustains US renewable power amid policy shifts
Federal policy reshapes project decisions, but demand, financing, and the development pipeline continue to support US renewable power and battery storage
Article
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5-min read
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20 August 2026
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Deloitte Center for Energy & Industrials
One year after the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the US renewable power market is adjusting to changes in the federal policy. Execution risk has increased, particularly for wind and solar projects, but demand, financing, and the development pipeline continue to support investment.
Policy shifts raise execution and supply chain challenges
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) compressed wind and solar safe-harbor timelines. To qualify for tax credits, wind and solar projects must have begun construction before July 4, 2026, or be placed into service by Dec. 31, 2027, compared to storage projects and other eligible technologies that have until 2033 to begin construction and be placed in service by Dec. 31, 2037, to qualify for full tax credits.1 According to Deloitte analysis, the change for wind and solar accelerates decisions and raises the value of projects with secured equipment, interconnection, permits, and offtake.2
In the year after the OBBBA:
- Utility-scale additions reached 57.3 GW, up 4% year over year.3
- Wind and battery additions rose 100% and 20%, respectively.4
- Solar additions fell 22%.5
- Clean tech manufacturing investment fell to US$8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, down 34% year over year and reaching its lowest level in three years.6
On the supply chain side, risk appears to be rising, with solar facing expanding antidumping and countervailing duty actions across a wider set of source countries, adding uncertainty around procurement, manufacturing economics, and project timing.7
The new foreign entity of concern (FEOC) restrictions are also having an impact. China supplied more than 80% of the 1.1 million tons of US lithium-ion battery (LIB) imports before FEOC restrictions took effect, but LIB imports from the country fell 62% in the first quarter of 2026.8
Offshore wind faced more direct disruptions. In the first six months of 2026, offshore wind lease buyback agreements totaled US$2.7 billion, halting nine projects representing 17.4 GW of potential capacity.9
Market demand and capital remain resilient
Despite these policy and supply chain challenges, market fundamentals have remained resilient.
The pipeline remains weighted toward clean energy. Of the 697 GW of planned additions by 2030, renewables account for 53% and battery storage for 28%, while all 44 GW of planned retirements are firm capacity.10 The forecast for solar additions from 2026 to 2029 held roughly flat in the second quarter of 2026 at 175 GW, compared with 173 GW in the third quarter of 2024.11
Capital access remains resilient. Renewables and storage secured more than US$103 billion in financing between July 2025 and June 2026.12 Renewable financing increased across lending value (more than 11%), number of facilities (more than 11%), and lender participation (more than 25%). Storage lending value increased 42% despite fewer deals.13
Dealmaking remained active but more selective. Nearly 97 GW traded through mergers and acquisitions in the first half of 2026, up from 70 GW a year earlier. Renewables accounted for more than half of the 181 power and utilities M&A deals in the year after the OBBBA, but only 6% of the US$278 billion in aggregate transaction value, indicating that deal activity remained concentrated in smaller renewable targets.14 Natural gas accounted for 43% of traded capacity, followed by solar (16%) and nuclear (12%).15
Strategic considerations moving forward for renewable buildout
The OBBBA has impacted new renewable power capacity project selection and execution. In the post-OBBBA environment, developers should consider five strategic areas:
- Prioritize probable pipelines: Focus capital on projects with credible paths to safe harbor, interconnection, offtake, and supply.
- Scrutinize supply: Evaluate procurement routes, supplier ownership, FEOC exposure, tariffs, traceability, and domestic manufacturing.
- Monetize mega-loads: Pursue front-of-meter reliability needs and behind-the-meter data center and industrial opportunities.
- Stack state support: Align with state incentives, utility programs, regional markets, and procurement mandates to improve project returns and secure offtake.
- Consolidate selectively: Use partnerships and M&A to acquire viable projects and strengthen delivery.
Policy has impacted the route to market, but not the underlying demand for renewable power and battery storage. Going forward, outcomes are likely to depend more on project selection, supply chain diligence, large-load partnerships, state support, and selective consolidation.
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Meet the industry leaders
Thomas L. Keefe
Vice Chair, US Power, Utilities & Renewables Leader | Deloitte & Touche LLP
Keith Adams
US renewable energy leader | Partner | Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP
Kate Hardin
Executive director | Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials | Deloitte Services LP
BY
Keith Adams
United States
Thomas L. Keefe
United States
Kate Hardin
United States
Shih Yu (Elsie) Hung
United States
The authors would like to thank Ethan Erickson, Carolyn Amon, Susanna Samet, Jason Jacobs, Tom Stevens, Jarret Jacinto, Anna Taylor, Erin Johnson, and Catherine King for their subject matter input and review.
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of Clayton Wilkerson for orchestrating resources related to the report; Rand Brodeur, Kim Buchanan, and Aditi Dilip Bhadwalkar who drove the marketing strategy and related assets to bring the story to life; Kaitlin Pellerin and Mariel Balaban for their leadership in public relations; Rithu Thomas and Aparna Prusty from the Deloitte Insights team who edited the report and supported its publication.
Editorial (including production and copyediting): Rithu Thomas, Aparna Prusty, and Anu Augustine
Cover image by: Alexis Werbeck
Knowledge services: Rishitha Bichapogu
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