The United States lags its peers in life span and health span, while spending more on health care than all of them.1 The US life span decreased in 2022 to its lowest point since 1996,2 while health care spending continues to outpace the GDP growth rate.3 In short, we are paying more and getting less.
But it’s not just about how many years we’re living. What’s important is how many years we’re living in good health—or rather, how many years we aren’t. Living a healthy life can be central to achieving one’s life goals, whether they’re social, physical, emotional, financial, educational, or business-related. Even though the average life span is 77.9 years, Deloitte calculated that Americans are living just 65.9 years (or 85% of their years) in good health. According to analysis conducted by Deloitte’s Health and Life Actuarial teams, all Americans could potentially live up to 95% of their years in good health and live to be nearly 90 years old (figure 1). Not only can people of all ages gain more years and more healthy years, but we could spend less on health care in the process.
To help ensure these projections are realized, we should embrace wellness and prevention, spur innovation, empower consumers, and advance equity, as outlined in our vision of the Future of Health™. And we believe that employers can be the catalysts in driving the change toward living healthier years and spending less. Leaning on the impact that the health and productivity of the workforce can have on an organization’s success, employers are uniquely positioned to take the lead on influencing health improvements more broadly. The payoff could be sizeable and long-lasting. In fact, we could see life span in the United States increase by an average of 12 years and health span increase by an average of 19.4 years by 2040, according to our analysis.
Life span is the average expected number of years between birth and death or life expectancy (LE).
Health span is the average number of healthy years between birth and death, also known as quality of life or health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE).4
Beyond the health ramifications, there is a competitive advantage and business case for employers to lead such a movement. To have the greatest impact, employers should think beyond their traditional role of offering health insurance to employees. And that will likely require employers to consider the broader health needs of their employees and how that extends to the communities they live in. This might include investing in workforce initiatives such as improving access to health care beyond the offering of health insurance, focusing on mental health, improving health literacy, enabling financial literacy and wealth management, and encouraging as well as incentivizing healthy habits. It’s important for organizations to also look at their impact beyond the workforce by recognizing the role their products and services can play in the drivers of health for consumers.
Employers have a growing responsibility to create a healthy and positive work environment that aims to improve employees’ physical, mental, social, and emotional health both within and beyond the workplace. Such workplace initiatives can increase employee productivity and retention—and help improve the overall success of the business. In recent years, some organizations have begun investing in employee health and well-being, but it may be time to be more strategic, intentional, and innovative. Employers generally have the potential to foster human sustainability by promoting the collective long-term well-being of workers, organizations, and society.5 After all, if you have employees, your organization is a health organization.
Because the tools and innovations needed to help achieve this already exist, employers can begin making an impact today. One starting point is empowering employees to modify their behaviors and make better choices to improve their health. There is evidence that lifestyle modifications like following a healthy diet, creating social connections, engaging in appropriate exercise, managing stress, and reducing smoking can dramatically change, or even reverse, the progression to diabetes, heart disease, and certain other conditions.6 Wearables and digital tools help enable changes, especially when they’re paired with coaching and nudging.7
Improving access to early screening and services that address mental health and social isolation can contribute to healthier aging. Such a shift also requires providing individuals with health-literacy tools, educational materials, and structural support that address the drivers of health (nonmedical economic, environmental, and social factors that influence health such as access to affordable housing, financial literacy, clean air and water, and healthy food).8 Employers are well-positioned to invest in these areas to help improve the health of their employees and surrounding communities.
Employers can be the catalyst for change, but they can’t do it alone. All ecosystem stakeholders—including employers, the life sciences and health care industries, public health, and individuals—should come together. It’s time to invest in longer, healthier lives that cost less—both for individuals and institutions. By emphasizing wellness, prevention, and early detection, we can move away from a treatment-focused health care model to one centered on promoting good health. And as we predicted in Deloitte’s Breaking the cost curve report, such a shift could slow the projected health spending’s growth rate by nearly a third.
It’s the responsibility of stakeholders across all industries to promote healthy behaviors, address health inequities, and take ownership of the problems. In essence, we should all converge around a common purpose: achieving healthier aging for all.
The ability to thrive and be one’s best self can and should be based upon everyone’s individual situation. Humans are not only diverse in demographics but also in their life experiences, health care needs, genetics, and the environments in which they live. For someone who was born with a disease that impacts their ability to talk and walk, living well may have a different meaning compared to someone living with a chronic condition like mental illness or arthritis. In this article, we focus on improving the systems that impact all unique identity groups while recognizing that living well may mean something different to everyone.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, employers prioritized the health and well-being of their workforce, and that focus remains in the spotlight as the great resignation, staffing shortages, and retention issues are still critical impacts on businesses across all industries. If employers continue to prioritize their employees, a focus on enabling healthy aging can evolve efforts beyond simply checking the box on wellness initiatives. Employee wellness can be a strategic asset: Healthy employees could be positioned to make the best work-related contributions.
An argument might be made that improving healthy living falls to the life sciences and health care sectors—after all, those are the industries that we frequently turn to for scientific breakthroughs, prevention, early detection, and changes to care delivery. While investments in innovation, science, and technology will likely always be needed, the scope is changing. In our vision of the Future of Health, we’ll move away from traditional disease care to a model based on prevention and most importantly, the promotion of healthy living. Along with this vision, we believe that employers likely have the most opportunity to influence these factors today.
In our national survey of 1,000 US consumers, 70% said they need some level of financial and social support to live longer, healthier lives.9 Financial resources, affordable healthy food, care access, internet, digital tools, and other social support are among the needs identified by the consumers we surveyed.10 When we drilled down to specific needs, we found that 21% of consumers need financial resources while only 9% need access to a care plan for disease prevention.11 Employers may be best positioned to offer support across all of these areas of consumer need, particularly financial literacy, wealth management, and other financial tools.
A combination of monitoring and measuring progress, implementing behavioral nudges, and providing consistent, coordinated care has been shown to improve and, in some situations, reverse chronic diseases.12 Numerous apps are evidence-based and focused on mental health, relaxation, nutrition, and exercise. Programs that combine wearables and digital tools with tailored and culturally appropriate health literacy and education for individuals on nutrition, exercise, and lifestyle habits may offer the information needed to improve one’s own health. These programs can also include multidisciplinary teams of support from nutritionists, fitness trainers, mental health experts, and others. With type 2 diabetes, for example, studies have shown that lifestyle changes (diet and exercise) combined with consistent care and support both virtually and in person, when needed, can result in reversal.13
To determine whether Americans may be able to live longer, healthier lives, Deloitte’s health and life actuarial teams modeled life spans and health spans in the United States based upon publicly available data. The teams identified the top 10 drivers of death and disease, which account for 70% of today’s deaths. For each, they conducted an extensive literature review to understand the underlying causes of disease and then leveraged public research, current innovation, and assumptions regarding change in behavior and structures that can be made by 2040. This combination of prevention and earlier detection resulted in predicted improvements in both life span and health span (See “Appendix: Methodology” for more details.).
To provide context around our projections and gain insight into how stakeholders can help achieve the vision for healthier aging, we conducted interviews with 10 industry leaders including health economists, geriatricians, gerontologists, and aging experts.
The analysis shows substantial potential gains in life span and health span by 2040 (figure 1), specifically a 19.4-year improvement in health span. The proportion of years spent in good health is projected to potentially increase from 85% to 95%. The modeling suggests that nearly everyone may be able to live to be nearly 90 years old and in good health for most of those years. Because unhealthy years can be temporary and occur at any stage of life (not just at the end of life), these health span improvements can occur throughout a person’s entire life, potentially resulting in an overall percentage of healthier years.
More years and more healthy years could be gained for everyone–people of all ages. The people in younger age categories will likely benefit the most and experience the full impact of a healthy lifestyle, structural changes, and innovation. However, those in older age brackets still can gain a great deal by living more years and gaining more healthy years. It is counterintuitive that someone in an older age bracket today could live well beyond the average. This is due to that person having surpassed the typical causes of death in each age bracket, leaving the opportunity for life span to be extended even further with today’s tools. Shifting to the Future of Health today could impact everyone positively (figure 2).
Both life span and health span today are on the decline for all groups, but certain groups declined more rapidly in the past few years and a significant gap exists across races and ethnicities. For example, according to our analysis, Black Americans have an average life span of 72.7 years with a health span below 60 years; and American Indian or Alaskan Natives have an average life span of 68.3 years and a health span below 54 years. On the other hand, white Americans live an average of 78.5 years and have a health span of 66 years; Asian Americans have an average life span of 84.6 years and have a health span of 77.5 years; and Hispanics have an average life span of 78.9 years and a health span under 69 years.
Applying the same Future of Health model to address health inequities, we estimated the impact of closing the gap on life span and health span. The result is that Black people and American Indian or Alaskan Natives stand to gain 24 years and 28 years of health span, respectively (figure 3). To help achieve this healthier aging, it will likely require significant changes including empowering healthy behaviors and lifestyles, investing in the drivers of health, and focusing on wellness and prevention.
If the current trajectory continues, everyone could live longer but the health span gap across certain groups of people could widen. Given the cost of not addressing these gaps—Deloitte projected the cost of inequities today at US$320 billion and it could reach US$1 trillion in 2040—organizations may have more reason than ever to invest in change. To prevent the gap from widening further, we should design for equitable aging. Such a design likely requires community- and broad-level investments and providing varying levels of support for communities. This will also likely require addressing the systemic and structural flaws that already exist in the system, including racism and bias.
Within our current system, one would expect that living longer and healthier would cost even more. After all, as we age, there is traditionally more spending on health care services.14 And health care spending has been growing annually for decades with a growth rate of 4.2% most recently in 2021.15
However, the opposite would occur in the Future of Health. Deloitte’s previous analysis in the Breaking the cost curve report projected a reduction in cost of nearly US$4 trillion if we adopt the Future of Health and focus on prevention, wellness, and empowered consumers. The projected increase in healthy years, therefore, will also potentially see a significant reduction (nearly a third) in health care spending.
This would involve increased screening, prevention, and monitoring. These are significantly lower-cost services than the traditional sick care that occurs in our current system, and also results in fewer sick care services due to prevention and early detection.16
To effect widespread, lasting change, all ecosystem stakeholders—employers, the life sciences and health care industries, consumer and technology industries, public health, and individuals—should come together. It could be possible for everyone in the United States to live longer, healthier lives, but only if organizations and individuals embrace the role they each could be playing to improve health. Achieving healthier years involves providing programs and support to change individual behaviors, making structural investments in the drivers of health (like housing, transportation, and education), and focusing on wellness and prevention.
The Future of Health we envision will be focused on wellness and prevention, but requires employers to assume a new role to drive value in the transformed health ecosystem. To extend the years that our current population can live in good health, however, that future needs to start today—and it turns out that the tools we need to help achieve it already exist.
To achieve systemic change, we should acknowledge that health happens everywhere, whether it’s within or outside the control of the usual health care industry players. On a day-to-day basis, people not only interact with their health care providers and systems, when needs arise, but also with their communities, employers, consumer technologies, and other systemic structures. Of all the major stakeholders that can play an outsized role in adding healthy life years, employers may be the most likely to be major catalysts for change. But they can’t do it alone, so it’s imperative that all stakeholders get involved and act now to improve health and wellness. Here are a few actions to get started:
Redefining employers’ role in health care. Increasingly, all private and public organizations are “health companies,” as much of the US workforce receives health benefits from their employers17 and conversely, the health and productivity of the workforce generally impacts the organizations’ success. Like post-WWII times when employers began offering health insurance benefits and shaped the current US health care system,18 employers can now serve as a catalyst for helping people live healthier lives.
The pandemic put a spotlight on workforce health, such that offering well-being support became a central competitive incentive for companies.19 After the height of the pandemic, today’s workers demand and expect greater health benefits and well-being transparency from their employers.20 It also became clear that these programs often meet the needs of certain groups only and therefore need to be more inclusive and designed equitably.
Investing in the health of employees and the public with an equitable lens can create a more productive workforce with greater contributions to creating value for stakeholders and driving purpose. Helping employees be healthier and more productive can also help boost retention rates.21 Thus the employers that make contributing to employee health a priority will likely have a competitive advantage.
“Large employers can be catalysts for change. Companies are already taking preventive efforts to tackle depression by creating awareness around mental health counseling and other physical well-being initiatives such as having healthy foods available and encouraging people to walk up the stairs.”
Employers are uniquely positioned to help employees improve their health by:
Empowering individuals to change their behaviors and lifestyles. The tools exist today to help individuals improve their health through behavior and lifestyle changes. This includes structural changes to social, economic, and environmental factors that impact health, also known as the drivers of health.25 Employers and other stakeholders can set individuals on a path toward better health by making investments to improve food deserts, housing insecurity, wealth disparities, climate, and other factors.
Behaviors including what we choose to eat, how much we exercise, and whether we smoke, can have a significant impact on our health, but they’re often impacted by structural challenges like the drivers of health. Social isolation and lack of connection can lead to poor health as well.26 The onus of changing these behaviors shouldn’t be placed entirely on individuals. Instead, encouraging a behavioral mindset shift on top of structural changes can empower a culture of health. By improving health literacy and knowledge, individuals can gain a better understanding of what good health entails.27 Individuals can be incentivized to put that knowledge to good use through the use of tools such as technology-based behavioral nudges. One example is using digital apps, such as weight-management apps coupled with human support, to remind users about their nutrition and diet goals and provide feedback nudges to encourage healthy behaviors.
Trust matters when it comes to influencing people’s behaviors.28 People can have varying levels of trust in clinicians, individuals, organizations, and institutions.29 Therefore, understanding where the public places their trust can be paramount to designing effective behavior-modification strategies. For example, retailers can play a significant role in individuals’ health choices through their food, exercise, and lifestyle products. And innovations that could spur lifestyle changes and consumer empowerment seem to be increasingly coming from unexpected places outside of health care and research. Consumer industries from social media and lifestyle brands to food companies and personal shoppers could possess untapped potential for effective behavioral modification and evidence-based healthy living.
“The health system is not built to create social change. What part of society is going to take on these other pieces—not payers, providers, or pharma companies? Media companies, lifestyle companies, influencers may have an outsized role. The average 30-year-old is more likely to listen to Instagram influencers than their own doctor.”
With data increasingly made available in digital tools and shared among stakeholders, the challenges toward maintaining consumer trust may have increased. There could be mounting privacy concerns among those who do not want their employers to know about their health conditions. Similar to how insurers previously would deny coverage to enrollees with pre-existing conditions, employees may be concerned that their health information will be used against them by their employers. And this trend could erode consumer trust if we don’t figure out a way to address it.
“We need to find the right champions to impact and influence the behavioral mindset for different groups of people. The scientific community, the religious community, political candidates, all can be the right champions that resonate with different groups.”
There are a few ways that organizations in other industries can converge with the health care industry to empower individuals to make healthier decisions. Consumer industries can increase their use of behavioral nudging on e-commerce sites. For example, Instacart has implemented ads for fresh produce, enabling produce brands to advertise directly to consumers. This approach increases consumer engagement and discovery of brands with healthier options.30 Another avenue is thinking of food as medicine: Bridging the information gap about the healthfulness of specific foods can demonstrate both positive health outcomes and increased food sales for grocers. For example, the Kroger OptUP program is a nutrition scoring system designed to help make choosing healthier food easier and is available to consumers both online and in stores.31
“Recent research has shown that only 10 percent of one’s longevity is attributable to genetics, which means that behavioral health (for example, nutrition, fitness, sleep, stress and preventative care) has a significant impact on longevity.”
Transforming the life sciences and health care industries’ business models. The life sciences and health care industries have traditionally been the most prominent players in people’s health; however, both should undergo significant transformations to help enable healthier lives. To get there, the industries will likely need to shift their mindset from sick care to well care, focus more on care delivery in the home, decrease the burden of costs on the consumer, and improve access to preventive and primary care services. In tandem, we’ll need to see broader structural changes, like changing financial incentives in the industry and properly incentivizing and investing in innovation and the health care workforce.
Creating drug and device pricing models and efficiencies for life sciences companies in research and development that spur investment in innovation will be important. This will require investing in advanced technologies, diversifying clinical trials, and focusing on value. Life sciences companies have seen decreasing returns on their investments in research and development for several years, which could hinder innovation.32
Adopting payment models and incentives for life sciences and health care organizations to offer coordinated, preventive services will likely be necessary. In addition, it’ll be important to address the shortage of primary care physicians, nurses, and mental health professionals33 in the health care industry. That could be accomplished by investing in nursing and medical schools to create a supply of talent and by using technology to streamline workflow and processes for health care staff.
“It should be ‘all hands on deck’ for primary care. Not just physicians being in charge of care, but also nurses, pharmacists, caregivers, dentists, etc., can contribute to the "4Ms” of the age-friendly health system (mobility, mentation, medication management, and what matters) and care experience effectively. They’re very underutilized.”
Even with the increase in virtual health and digital care delivery, access to health care remains an issue for some people due to factors such as internet availability. Others simply might not prefer in-person care or may have to travel significant distances for it. In addition, the fragmented process for gaining health insurance coverage can hinder the ability to build relationships between patients and their providers and establish continuity of care.
“One of our biggest obstacles of investing in health is the fact that the average American changes their health insurance company every 18 to 30 months. If we can start to show the world why we need to move beyond annual enrollment in health insurance, maybe that will start to drive longer term investments.”
The health care industry should make fundamental shifts in care practice to expand how and where care is provided equitably. These shifts could include:
Building community-based ecosystems that drive collaboration. Given the complexity of extending life spans and health spans, there is an increasing need for stakeholders to build innovative ecosystems across all industries. These collaborations can fundamentally change individual company’s business practices for collective benefit, be based in the community, and improve health and wellness for everyone. These ecosystems can also leverage technology in new ways.
Ecosystems provide a way for all stakeholders to interact and provide local solutions in the right place, at the right time, and for the right people.34 Health disparity obstacles to healthier living tend to exist because the solutions are often designed to meet the needs of the average person living in the United States. Instead, we should design hyperlocal, place-based solutions to help enable health for everyone in a specific area.
Structural factors such as a zip code, which influences health outcomes disproportionately (and often can be a proxy for income and historical marginalization), can be well-suited for ecosystem interactions. For instance, unstable housing, often segregated by zip code, is correlated with an average life span decrease of 27 years.35 Combining the expertise of leaders from local public-health housing departments, hospital emergency rooms, and electronic health-record software companies could potentially help address some of the root causes of housing instability. These interactions are important as we can’t put all the onus on the individual to change lifestyle, given that systems and environmental changes are also necessary.
“There is a need for a health system which provides medical care but is being led by public health—to create the programs, the partnerships, the actions, and the system transformations—at a city level, at a state level, at national level. This type of a health system can help create the conditions in which it enables people to be healthy across the life course.”
The US population is growing older, but not necessarily healthier. However, it can be possible to live longer, healthier lives while seeing reductions in health care spending. When in good health, people can live their lives the way they envision, whether that’s spending quality time with loved ones or pursuing their passions. Employers can create significant change for everyone, but they can’t do it alone. If all stakeholders come together and optimize the tools available today, we could collectively increase the overall health and well-being of generations of Americans so that improved health spans and an equitable future of health is the ultimate outcome.
Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) mortality data, the World Health Organization (WHO) morbidity data, and the WHO definition of healthy-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), we modeled HALE by sex, race/ethnicity and age as a proxy for socioeconomic status to understand impacts of inequities.
We set to examine how adoption of the Deloitte Future of Health vision, investments in structural drivers of health, and enablement of a culture of health impacts life span and quality of life by using a model incorporating public data to project the impact of such interventions.
The life expectancy and health span numbers reflect an average for the US population. The modeling takes the average severity for each disease and does not account for individual level factors. Even though they are significant drivers of death, accidents, gun violence, etc., are not included in the analysis because they are not accounted for in medical condition data. Mental health is listed as its own disease, but we recognize its complexity in how it is interrelated with many diseases (particularly substance-use disorder) and can exacerbate them without being recorded as the actual cause of death/disease.
The WHO definition of HALE: the number of years that a person can expect to live in full health, accounting for the years lived in less than full health due to disease and/or injury.
We applied this model to a panel of the most impactful disease areas on life expectancy and quality of life: