Can governments help guide the world food system to a future of sustainable abundance?
Innovations combined with traditional production methods may help society fend off food challenges and bring on a more sustainable future
Can governments help guide the world food system to a future of sustainable abundance?
Today’s guests:
Randy Jagt, senior strategy partner in Deloitte Netherlands' Consumer industry
PJ Rivera, Strategy & Growth leader for Deloitte Consulting LLP’s Government & Public Services
Erika Thiem, chief supply chain officer, Feeding America
Danielle Nierenberg, president, and co-founder of Food Tank
The global agriculture industry is vast, producing four million metric tons of food each year and accounting for about 40 % of jobs throughout the world. It is also susceptible to disruption and shocks, from climate change and soil depletion to supply chain snags and spoilage. Future-proofing this global food system is a daunting task, but a necessary one.
In Turning point: Feeding the world sustainably, Deloitte Global examined the costs and opportunities of long-term food system transformation. They found that sticking with business as usual puts the world at risk of increasing food insecurity.
Randy Jagt, senior strategy partner in Deloitte Netherlands, Deloitte Future of Food leader and co-author of the report, shares the stakes: “If we want to feed 10 billion people in the future1, which will be probably in about 2050 or 2070, we need to expand our food system with about 40% more calories. So it's a gigantic challenge to overcome.”
In this episode, we discuss how to meet that mark with Jagt, along with PJ Rivera, Strategy & Growth leader for Deloitte Consulting LLP; Erika Thiem, chief supply chain officer of Feeding America; and Danielle Nierenberg, president and co-founder of the research and advocacy organization Food Tank. We examine the impacts of climate change on the agricultural industry, as well as the impacts of that industry on climate change. We talk about new technology that is helping to curb food waste, and old farming techniques that are restoring soil viability. Finally, we consider the collaborations necessary to bring the global food system into a stable future.
“This will require all of our attention, all of our dedication,” Jagt said. “Lots of collaboration and coalition forming will be required to make this happen. So, it's definitely not an easy transformation2 to say the least, but I’m still optimistic that we can get this done.”
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Tanya Ott: We’re at a crossroads when we look to the future of food—the cultivation, the production, the distribution, and what we’ll actually eat in the future.
One possible future is one of sustainable abundance: plenty for everyone, the end of hunger—and we have the technology to achieve this goal.
The other is hunger and the proliferation of food deserts and areas of deprivation, bereft of access to healthy food.
The desired pathway is clear, but that goal may only be reached if the governments, the agricultural industries, NGOs, and communities work together.
The challenges are stark: climate change, rising global population, growing food waste. These are the some of the biggest obstacles3 the planet faces.
I’m Tanya Ott, and in today’s Government Future Frontiers [episode], we’re talking about ways to combat food challenges. How do we ensure that the innovation and skills that we possess can be applied to ensure that we end up going in the right direction when planning the future of our food supply?
My guests today are Randy Jagt, senior strategy partner in Deloitte Netherlands’ Consumer industry; PJ Rivera, Strategy & Growth leader for Deloitte Consulting LLP’s Government & Public Services; Erika Thiem, chief supply chain officer, Feeding America; and Danielle Nierenberg from Food Tank, a research and advocacy organization that tells stories of hope and success in food and agriculture systems across the globe.
But before we explore the challenges we face in more detail, where are we today?
The global agriculture industry is vast, producing four million metric tons of food each year.
It’s projected to be worth US$4.59 trillion in 2024. This is expected to grow to US$5.52 trillion by 2029. And there’s more.
Here’s Randy Jagt.
Randy Jagt: The food system is a massive employer in the world. [It is] employing about 40% of all global jobs. It’s responsible for about 12% of global GDP. It’s also taking about 50% of all habitable land. So, in a way, it’s a very pivotal system in our global society, and [for] governments4 and countries.
Ott: And it is a system that’s under threat.
Jagt: What happens if we stay on the path [the world is] currently are on? We just released a report on how to feed the world sustainably, where we exactly model this.
Ott: That report is called Turning point: Feeding the world sustainably. It uses economic modelling to evaluate various scenarios that will impact the future of food.
Jagt: If [society doesn’t] take action, we will see that food security would be significantly under pressure. And [the world] will not be able to feed this global growing population all the way up to 10 billion. If we want to feed 10 billion people in the future, which will be probably in about 2050 or 2070, we need to expand our food system with about 40% more calories. So, it's a gigantic challenge to overcome.
“Companies can’t offer you employment forever, but they should make you employable forever.”
In the absence of clear definition, organizations often take narrow or self-promotional approaches to measuring their human impact. Many focus just on short-term risks (for example, a public relations issue), undervaluing efforts that make a positive impact on society (for example, worker training or financial inclusion). Fundamentally, people-focused metrics tend to be rooted in an extractive, transactional mindset. For example, metrics that measure employee engagement in effect indicate how much discretionary effort workers are willing to expend for their organization’s benefit. Is high employee engagement a good thing? It helps the organization; whether it helps employees is less clear.
People and organizations are increasingly awakening to the idea that the earth is a complex, fragile system, not a bottomless set of resources, and that nurturing the planet is fundamental to building a better future for everyone. The move toward human sustainability represents a parallel shift in organizations’ concept of people. It requires a comprehensive effort by an organization to add value for the individuals it affects across multiple dimensions, most notably those listed in figure 2. Human sustainability applies to all people in contact with the organization: not just current workers, but also future workers, extended (contingent, gig, or external supply chain) workers, customers, investors, communities where the organization operates, and society broadly.
Aside box on Multimedia template
If [the world does] take significant, action—for example, doubling down on innovation, protecting our natural resources, changing consumer mindset and diet—we would actually improve food security by generating about a thousand trillion more calories to feed about 1.6 billion more people in the world, but also reduce food prices with about 16%.
We’re seriously at this turning point where we need to start taking action and make the necessary steps to find the optimal balance of food security, environmental impact and managing situations like climate change, which is already putting global shocks to the food system.
BY
Andrew Joint
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