Deloitte: Holiday Spending Set to Increase 4% While Shoppers Focus on Value

NEW YORK, Oct. 15, 2026

Key takeaways

• Average household spend is expected to increase to $1,654, up 4% year over year. Expected gains are largely from Gen Z and millennials, who now represent 50% of the holiday spend.
• Surveyed consumers expect their spending on retail goods to be up 10% year over year ($988), while planned spending on holiday activities is down 4% YoY ($666)
• Half of shoppers plan to gift an experience this year, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024, yet 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also want to pair it with a physical item.
• Savvy spending is top-of-mind, as 38% of surveyed shoppers qualify as “holiday value seekers” who shop promotions, redeem rewards, and look to private label and other value alternatives to make gift purchases feel worth the price. Yet these shoppers expect to spend 12% more than others.
   

Why this matters

This holiday season, shoppers seem determined to keep the cheer alive, even while watching every dollar. For 41 years, Deloitte has studied consumer behavior and sentiment ahead of the holiday shopping season. This year’s “2026 Holiday Retail Survey” explores what to expect from holiday shoppers across generations and income levels, as many respondents begin their purchasing journey earlier and look to stretch their budgets further.
 

Seasonal spending expectations spread cheer

Surveyed consumers expect to spend $1,654 on average this holiday shopping season, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025, with gains primarily coming from Gen Z and millennials; both groups plan to increase spend by double digits year over year. Half of shoppers plan to gift an experience, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024, with Gen Z and millennials, again, leading the trend.

• Economic sentiment holds steady among respondents, with 45% expecting the economy to stay the same or improve.
• Fifty percent of holiday shoppers plan to gift an experience, such as to a restaurant (in-person meal or gift card; 37%) or tickets to an event (19%), but 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also want to pair it with a physical item.
• Forty-seven percent of respondents prefer to give one meaningful, higher-cost gift rather than several smaller gifts.
• Gen Z and millennials note better household financial situations YoY and plan to up their spend after pulling back last year. Younger generations are driving the largest gains in gifting; three quarters (76%) of Gen Z shoppers plan to gift clothing and accessories.
• Planned retail goods spending increases across the income spectrum, while experience spending diverges by household income.
• Households earning $200K+ plan to spend $3,607 on average, more than five times the $693 expected by those earning under $50K.
  
  

Key quote
 

— Natalie Martini, vice chair and US Retail and Consumer Products sector leader, Deloitte
 

Consumers start their shopping journey earlier

Earlier shopping is building momentum ahead of the peak season, with June promotions that have already captured 1 in 4 holiday shoppers, and October sales events gaining momentum over the past three years. Still, Thanksgiving week remains the main event. And throughout the season, GenAI is becoming part of the holiday shopping journey.

• Consumers are getting into the shopping spirit early: 22% of respondents plan to start earlier than last year, and 28% of shoppers’ budgets are likely to be exhausted by the end of October, the highest share in six years.
• One in 4 respondents already purchased holiday items during June promotional events, and 4 in 10 plan to shop October sales events, up 18 percentage points from 2023 and nearly on par with Cyber Monday at 44%.
• Traditional shopping windows still hold firm, as planned shopping activity peaks in late November (77% of shoppers active) and stays elevated into early December (78%).
• Nearly 4 in 10 (38%) shoppers qualify as “holiday value seekers,” adopting five or more money-saving behaviors, yet they expect to spend 12% more than others. These savvy shoppers are more likely to start shopping early and keep going all season.
• The holiday shopping journey favors online-only retailers and mass merchants: 36% and 18% of holiday shoppers, respectively, expect to spend the most at these formats, while price and value remain the top retailer-selection factor.
• Although shoppers plan to allocate 55% of their retail holiday budgets online, many still favor in-store shopping for certain categories, especially food and beverage (81% prefer in-store vs. 19% online); pet (62% in-store vs. 38% online); and home and kitchen (60% in-store vs. 40% online).
• Broader use of digital tools is associated with higher planned holiday spending: average spend rises steadily as shoppers use search, social media and GenAI across their holiday shopping journey. Those using all three tools — search, social media and GenAI — plan to spend an average of $2,893, compared with $1,175 among shoppers who did not use any of the three tools.
   

Evolving generational preferences guide shopping habits

Younger shoppers are more likely to seek guidance, personalization, convenience, and service, while older shoppers prefer a more independent experience once costs are clear. This points to evolving generational preferences that create new opportunities for retailers to differentiate holiday shopping experiences. Younger shoppers also lead self-gifting, while higher-income households show stronger intent to buy for themselves

• Twenty percent of respondents plan to buy personalized or monogrammed gifts, including 33% of Gen Z and 29% of millennials, compared with 14% of Gen X and 5% of baby boomers.
• Among the 44% of respondents who find gift shopping stressful, 74% say wish lists make the process easier - including 79% of Gen Z and 69% of baby boomers.
• Twenty-six percent of respondents want same-day delivery, rising to 37% among Gen Z and 33% among millennials, compared with 24% of Gen X and 13% of baby boomers.
• Another 26% of respondents rely on salespeople to find an appealing luxury gift, including 34% of Gen Z and 31% of millennials, compared with 18% of Gen X and 13% of baby boomers.
• Among shoppers planning or considering a self-gift, the average expected spend is $299, up 13% from 2025 and 20% from 2024. Younger shoppers lead this trend (49% of Gen Z plan to self-gift compared to 18% of baby boomers). Male shoppers also plan to spend more on self-gifting ($355) than female shoppers ($245).
   

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