Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 Trillion

NEW YORK, Sept. 10, 2026 — Holiday retail sales are projected to total between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion during the November 2026 through January 2027 period, representing an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% from the same period in 2025, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast. In 2025, holiday sales increased by 4.1% in the same period.

E-commerce is forecast to grow 7.5% and 8.4% year-over-year during the 2026 to 2027 holiday season. Contributing to overall retail sales growth, Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion this season. The forecast reflects the continued role of digital tools, promotions, and comparison shopping in the holiday purchase journey.

“Disposable personal income (DPI) remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales. The continued growth in e-commerce sales is also expected to be aided by consumers’ ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories.”

According to Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, “Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend. As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending. These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season.”

Note to editors
Deloitte is forecasting a 4% to 4.8% increase in total 2026 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2025. Retail sales between November 2025 and January 2026 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 4.1% and totaled $1.63 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Deloitte is forecasting a 7.5% to 8.4% increase in 2026 holiday e-commerce sales compared with the same period in 2025. E-commerce sales between November 2025 and January 2026 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 7.5%, totaling an estimated $294 billion.