Pharmaceutical (pharma) companies' current commercial models, while generally successful, are not agile or efficient enough to respond to today’s rapidly evolving market forces and technological advancements. Our prediction on the End-to-end transformation of pharma’s commercial activities, published in October 2024, envisaged that by 2030, pharma's commercial model would be fully digitalised, AI-powered, customer-centric, and highly efficient, resulting in enhanced productivity and customer experience. More recently, the US Deloitte Center for Health Solutions’ June 2025 report, Navigating the future of pharma's commercial model, based on a survey of biopharma leaders, explored the industry’s readiness for change over the next five years. This blog draws on both publications to provide insights into how we expect biopharma’s commercial model to change and how companies can sustain their success through to 2030.

End-to-end transformation of pharma’s commercial activities ¹

Our prediction envisages that, by 2030, pharma's commercial operations will have undergone a complete digital transformation, leveraging AI, data cloud providers and customer relationship management (CRM) providers, to streamline processes and shift from a product-centric to a customer-centric approach. Personalised marketing and support will have improved customer experiences, and reduced costs. Pharma companies will have adopted innovative pricing models, outsourced non-core functions, and be prioritising AI-powered pharmacovigilance (PV)and patient support programmes (PSPs) to ensure medication safety, equitable access, and better health outcomes.

By 2030, we envisage that this customer-centric approach will include innovative marketing and value-based pricing strategies; data-driven, insightful, highly personalised campaigns; and reimbursement aligned to improved patient outcomes. AI will be crucial for enhancing pharmacovigilance and patient support programs, enabling proactive risk mitigation, improved medication adherence, and increased patient safety.

While our prediction presents a mostly optimistic vision of the future commercial model, the reality, as identified by the US Center’s report, is a significant gap between perceived current capabilities and the need for transformation. Its November 2024 survey of 100 biopharma leaders and interviews with 12 leaders, across the various commercial sub functions, found that although 69 per cent of survey respondents agreed or strongly agreed that their commercial organisation met today’s business needs, 56 per cent acknowledged the need for significant change or even full transformation of their entire commercial function. Moreover, only 30 per cent considered that their commercial function was well prepared to respond to future trends.

The five elements of transformation needed to sustain the future success of pharma’s commercial function through to 2030 ²

Merging insights from our predictions 2030 LSHC report with the findings from the US Center’s future of commercial survey and report, we have highlighted the following transformation requirements that will be needed.

1. Elevate engagement with an integrated customer model

Healthcare professionals (HCPs) remain a key customer group for pharma; however, several studies indicate their growing dissatisfied with pharma companies, citing difficulties staying updated with medical knowledge, scepticism about the scientific validity of pharma communications and content fatigue. Simultaneously, HCPs influence on treatment decisions is waning, prompting pharma to shift attention towards C-suite executives and population health decision-makers who drive formulary and purchasing decisions. However, disconnected interactions between pharma companies’ various customer-facing teams and decision makers at customer organisations have led to fragmented messaging and suboptimal customer experiences. A fully integrated field model is therefore needed to deliver coordinated, personalised, data-driven interactions, with HCPs and decision-makers. This requires data integration (using AI to help create a 360-degree customer view), organisational change and behavioural shifts, to improve pharma’s understanding of buyer needs, customer relationships and engagement.

2. Meet empowered consumers’ needs with innovative models

Consumers increasingly expect convenience, cost-effectiveness and control over their health, but experience difficulties in accessing care (including diagnoses and treatment) and high out-of-pocket costs. Consequently, consumers are increasingly bypassing traditional healthcare, seeking alternative services and providers, or adopting do-it-yourself approaches. In the US pharma companies are adopting direct-to-patient (DTP) models to streamline access to treatments, expedite consultations, simplify insurance processes, and improve therapy adherence. The long-term strategic value of DTP models lying in enhanced patient engagement and consented use of high-quality data for improved segmentation, care coordination, and service delivery.

Elsewhere, as identified our predictions that Consumers are becoming the CEOs of their own health and engaging with alternative providers and models of care such as  pharmacists’ prescribing are becoming a crucial way of accessing care.^3,4 Pharma companies will therefore need strategies for engaging with these alternative providers, balancing innovation including new PSPs and PV, with agile regulatory compliance (such as robust data privacy measures and proactive risk management) seen as critical enabler of the future commercial model.

3. Deliver greater holistic value through an expanded ecosystem role

The traditional prescription-based, HCP-focused commercial model is no longer meeting the needs of patients. Innovative and more complex therapies are increasing the challenges faced by patients and HCPs including navigating care pathways, improving health literacy and managing treatment costs. Over the next three to five years, innovative screening programmes, AI-driven diagnostics and investment in care coordination could address gaps in healthcare delivery. Moreover, innovative financing models (supplemental risk pools, new insurance products, risk-sharing agreements and patient financing options) can create mutually beneficial collaborations among employers, payers, and financial service companies, while addressing the increasing cost burdens faced by patients, employers, and payers. This provides an opportunity for pharma to play a greater role in orchestrating the healthcare ecosystem.

4. Rewire commercial operations for greater efficiency

The proliferation of healthcare data presents opportunities for pharma’s commercial organisations, but managing and utilising this data effectively is complex, time-consuming and expensive. Moreover, AI offers transformative potential, including tailoring marketing messages, creating engaging and informative content and delivering personalised messaging to HCPs and patients. However, unlocking value requires a shift in mindset (potentially generating up to $7 billion USD over five years for a large company, with 25-35 per cent of that in commercial functions).⁵ The prize is multi-faceted, with AI technologies (such as AI-powered CRMs and real-world data) improving the coordination of product launches, establishing proof of value to support reimbursement, streamlining medical, legal and regulatory compliance, and improving patient engagement.

However, 76 per cent of respondents to the US Center survey said they were struggling with siloed and outdated data infrastructures, with regulatory compliance and change management presenting considerable hurdles. The challenge, however, is not the technology but organisational readiness and the ability to trust and act on AI-generated insights. Mitigating risks requires human-in-the-loop controls and reimagining how work is structured, decisions are made, and responsibilities assigned.  This requires a focus on developing the data analysis, AI and digital engagement skills of frontline teams, thereby empowering them to make decisions more quickly without the need for management review. Realising AI’s full value in the commercial function requires proactive HR planning, including job redesign, talent strategies, and organisational restructuring; investments in data, technology, and training; and creating a culture of trust, adaptability, and forward-thinking leadership.

5. Increase financial agility to achieve greater ROI

The commercial organisations siloed sub-functions have resulted in fragmented investments that optimise each sub-function’s return-on-investment (ROI) but not overall enterprise value. This approach lacks cohesive, enterprise-wide financial visibility. Improving ROI, requires a cross-functional mindset that evaluates opportunities and performance, embeds financial agility and adopts new performance measurement approaches. Improving an understanding of profitability drivers necessitates companies to reassess traditional departmental goals, incentives and reporting structures, to foster cross-functional collaboration and performance measurement.  It also requires the introduction of data-driven incentive structures and new integrated data platforms and advanced analytics can provide a unified view of investments and outcomes.

Conclusion

The pharma industry is on the cusp of a transformative shift that redefines customer engagement, operational models, and its role in the broader healthcare ecosystem. Over the next five years the future commercial model will likely feature solution-oriented customer interactions, strategic AI integration, and enhanced agility and efficiency. While envisioning this future is relatively easy, achieving it will be challenging. However, the potential benefits, including financial value for pharma companies and their customers, are substantial.

There is a consensus across the pharma industry that the commercial function needs to embrace end-to-end digital transformation, but the key question that remains is not ‘whether to change’, but ‘how quickly and extensively’.  Proactive anticipation and preparation for the required changes, including addressing the actionable insights identified under each of the five elements, will be crucial to pharma’s transformation of their commercial functions. The insights in our prediction 2030 report, and navigating the future of commercial report, provide a prescription to help ensure the future success of the pharma commercial model over the next five years.

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