Deloitte’s Attitudes to Trade Survey 2026: Uncertainty has become the new normal

• Global trade uncertainty is now embedded in business planning, with 83% of business leaders expecting disruption to continue for at least the next one to two years;
• However, UK businesses are broadly supportive of the UK’s approach to trade policy, with the 2025 Trade Strategy proving popular among business leaders;
• Businesses are also increasingly positive about the government’s approach to trading with the EU, the US and India; 
• While 70% of businesses expect the UK-EU trading relationship to improve, there is no clear consensus on the best model for closer cooperation.

UK businesses are adjusting to uncertainty due to a more volatile global tariff environment, according to Deloitte's fourth annual Attitudes to Trade Survey. The survey, which polled 750 UK business leaders, found that businesses remain cautious when it comes to trade policy with 83% of respondents anticipating uncertainty to continue for at least 1-2 years, and 54% expecting uncertainty to continue for at least 3-4 years.

Businesses respond to shifting trade policy
Businesses are adapting to shifting trade policy, with 48% having explored mitigation strategies such as price increases, market diversification and supply chain reorganisation to manage the impact.

The survey found that 56% of business leaders selected high tariffs as the main barrier they face when trading with the US, up from 33% in 2024. Other barriers that were most frequently selected included shipping costs (34%) and licensing restrictions (26%).

Amanda Tickel, partner and head of tax and trade policy at Deloitte UK, said: “Global trade is experiencing a period of prolonged disruption, with UK and international businesses facing a fragmented and unpredictable landscape. There is no ‘one size fits all’ approach to mitigating tariff impacts, with businesses needing to examine the specific characteristics of their operations and supply chains to identify the most appropriate course of action.”

Businesses expect UK-EU relationship to improve
70% of UK businesses now expect the trade relationship between the UK and the EU to improve over the next five years, compared to 61% in 2025 and 54% in 2024.

There was strong support among business leaders (88%) for some degree of alignment with the EU. However, most business leaders do not support full alignment with EU rules, with just 14% of respondents citing this as the preferred route for the UK to achieve a closer trading relationship with the EU.

Instead, the report found sustained support for alignment in specific sectors, while preserving the UK’s regulatory autonomy - rising from 42% of businesses last year, to 48% this year. 74% of businesses highlighted cooperation on Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM) as helpful to their business, with 68% of respondents identifying cooperation on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) as helpful to their business.

James Caldecourt, head of international trade at Deloitte UK, added: “British businesses are demonstrating growing optimism towards the UK’s trading relationship with the EU, with over two-thirds of business leaders expecting it to improve over the next five years. However, it is notable that most business leaders are not seeking full alignment with EU rules, with almost half preferring to align only in specific sectors. This suggests that while businesses favour measures to ease trade frictions, more firms are adapting to the post-Brexit context and support the UK’s ability to determine its own regulatory environment.”

Business leaders optimistic about trade with India, the US and CPTPP
Support for the UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) continues to grow, with two thirds (66%) of businesses expecting it to enhance their competitive position, up from 58% last year which was before the deal was finalised*. Key opportunities identified include improved services access (38%), tariff reductions (33%) and participation in India’s government procurement market (27%).

The UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal is also popular, with 70% of respondents believing it to be helpful for their business. Meanwhile, sentiment toward the UK’s expanding network of trade agreements remains positive, as 71% of respondents believe deals with countries like India, Australia, New Zealand and membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will contribute to national growth.

Looking at trade relationships in Asia Pacific, over half (51%) of the businesses surveyed favoured closer trade ties with China, and 53% expect China to play a greater role in their supply chains over the next five years. Despite this, nearly half (46%) anticipate more trade barriers with China over the next five years.

Government’s trade strategy proving popular
The UK Trade Strategy, announced in June 2025 has proved popular among business leaders, with over three quarters (78%) of respondents considering it helpful for their business. Alongside this, almost two thirds (63%) of businesses think that the government is doing a good job of explaining the benefits of trade agreements. This marks an improvement from 37% of businesses in the 2023 survey, to 51% in the 2024 survey and 57% in the 2025 survey.

Caldecourt added: “The UK’s growing portfolio of trade agreements is intended to boost confidence, reduce tariffs, improve market access and encourage stronger investment flows. Our survey data paints a positive picture of the UK government’s role in helping to boost UK trade and suggests that British businesses are seeing trade policy deliver meaningful results.”

Minister for Trade, Sir Chris Bryant MP, said: “I’m delighted that British businesses support our Trade Strategy and are determined to exploit the opportunities that come from the four trade deals we signed last year. It’s all part of delivering real benefits for people in uncertain times and creating economic growth and prosperity for the UK.”

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About the research
The survey explores UK businesses’ sentiment towards UK trade policy and identifies key challenges facing UK businesses. Conducted in association with polling group Opinium between 27 October and 12 November 2025, the survey is based on the responses of 750 senior decision-makers representing a range of large, medium and small-sized businesses trading in both goods and services from the UK. Of these respondents, 100 were C-suite representatives of small businesses (10-49 employees); 150 respondents were board level representatives of medium-sized businesses (50-249 employees); 250 respondents were at least senior directors or decision makers at large businesses (250-999 employees); and 250 respondents were at least senior directors or decision makers at large corporates (1000+ employees).

*Last year’s survey (2025 edition) was conducted between 28 November and 3 December 2024.