The residential balancing act

Between the two latest censuses (2011-2021), 134 residential projects were brought forward in our Crane Survey area, comprising 21,000 new homes, with half of that number delivered over 2020 and 2021. Notably, a further 13,006 homes have been constructed since.

As a result, Manchester and Salford City Centres have witnessed incredible population growth over the last decade. Manchester City Centre's population alone approached an estimated 100,000 people in 2023. Salford experienced a 15.4 per cent increase in its population between 2011 and 2021 to 269,900 and rising; the highest percentage increase in the North West.

This population growth has and will continue to be driven by the delivery of new residential developments, aligning with continued high rates of graduate retention, graduate returners, and migration. The city offers a significantly lower cost of living compared to London, with consumer prices approximately 17.7 per cent lower and rent prices around 34 per cent lower. Concurrently, Manchester city centre alone also saw a 17.2 per cent increase in employment (59,000 jobs) between 2014 and 2018, and forecasts predict that total city centre employment will increase by 65,000 to 315,000 by 2040, enhancing its long-term appeal.

Looking ahead, based on Local Plan targets, the aim is to double the population of the regional centre in the next period to approximately 250,000 people. The expanded city centre boundary in the Manchester draft Local Plan recognises that patterns of density must continue to spread beyond the Inner Ring Road into areas such as Victoria North, Holt Town, and Strangeways / Cambridge areas of Manchester and Salford.

However, despite recent history and ambitious growth targets, our latest data reveals a shift in the residential market. While maintaining over 10,000 homes under construction annually during the COVID-19 recovery, the number currently under construction stands at 8,023. This marks the first time since 2016 that the figure has dipped below 10,000 units, a consequence of 3,422 completions and a reduced number of new starts (1,995 homes across 7 projects, three below the 20-year average).

Despite this, Manchester continues to demonstrate the highest delivery numbers among surveyed regional cities and maintains a robust pipeline. While a return to the peak construction levels of 2020/21 may not be immediate, improving Building Safety Act (BSA) timescales and the increasing role of public-private partnerships suggest strong delivery numbers are set to continue in future years.

Contextualising the reduction

Development within the residential sector over the last decade has been largely driven by the need to increase rental stock, delivered through high-density city centre developments.

"Building Regulations surrounding fire safety via the Building Safety Act (‘BSA’), introduced in 2022, is acutely affecting construction rates of the specific typology that has led to impressive population growth since 2014 in particular."

This is a situation not unique to Manchester and Salford. Nationally, from a post-pandemic peak of approximately 25,000 multi-family Build-to-Rent (BtR) units in Q3 2022, starts fell to 12,500 units during Q4 2023, representing a 50 per cent drop. 2024 saw further decline, with the most recent data indicating a sharp contraction to only around 6,000 units starting construction in 2025 through to November nationally.

The problem affecting high-density BtR is two-fold: schemes over 18 metres in height are not only more physically constrained and rendered less efficient via a second stair core, but the process of Gateway 1 and 2 approvals is also lengthy. Funding is not typically released until Gateway 2 is secured. Data in mid-2025 showed averages at 22-36 weeks, with some large projects facing 30-40+ week waits for Gateway 2 and 4 months for Gateway 3. A significant part of the year-on-year reduction since 2022 can therefore be attributed to the delays caused by BSA.

While this slowdown is consistent with national trends, the rate of delivery in Manchester and Salford remains strong. 2025 saw 3,422 units complete, and 2026 is set to see a further 5,500 units brought to market, which would be the second highest on record. Much of this development is concentrated in the Southern Arc and Salford.

The market response

Our data shows that there are 49 further implementable permissions for 15,332 homes that could come forward in the next three years, with many more in pre-planning stages or identified in Strategic Frameworks. This figure for unimplemented planning permissions is almost double the number under construction, highlighting both the projected levels of continued demand and market confidence, alongside reflecting the issues caused by new regulatory delays to date.

However, there is a positive outlook for unlocking this substantial pipeline. The Building Safety Regulator (BSR) has made significant progress, clearing almost the entire national 'legacy' backlog of 91 major applications by the end of 2025. New applications are now consistently meeting a 12-week statutory service-level agreement. This improved regulatory efficiency, combined with an anticipated base rate cut to 3.75 per cent in late 2025, signals a potential measured recovery for the residential pipeline, helping to unlock more of these consented schemes.

Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA)

Beyond traditional Build-to-Rent, the Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) market in Manchester continues its robust growth trajectory. 2025 represents the highest volume of PBSA under construction, with 3,894 units across 5 schemes, exceeding last year’s total by 1,200 units, despite the completion of 3 schemes delivering 1,803 bedspaces. This surge partly addresses the shortfall of new accommodation experienced during the more uncertain COVID-19 recovery periods of 2020-2022. PBSA remains a key component of increasing the residential capacity of the Regional Centre, supporting Manchester's status as a leading university city.

Diversifying the residential offer

Notwithstanding current challenges for commencement of construction, new residential development needs to continue to be strategically delivered and diversify the market to reflect evolving demands. A continued focus on delivering a range of housing options and leveraging city-wide data to identify housing gaps is essential for ensuring that the Region’s growth is inclusive and sustainable. There is an emphasis in strategic planning to providing larger 3-bed homes as a proportion of new residential developments to cater for diverse household needs.

This 'housing need-first' approach is being addressed through new funding and delivery models, including GMCA's 'Integrated Pipeline,' the Strategic Affordable Housing Partnership (‘SAHP’), and initiatives like 'This City.' These aim to address specific demographic gaps, such as catering to families and older residents, and bridging the 'gap' between social and market rents through concepts like the 'Manchester Living Rent,' which is supported by the SAHP.

Emerging trends: Single-family Build-to-Rent

To that end, single-family Build-to-Rent (BtR) is experiencing substantial market growth nationally as the rental market extends beyond its traditional demographics and house types, benefiting from bypassing some of the BSA requirements. In the UK, single-family housing schemes accounted for over £5 billion of the £9.5 billion invested in the build-to-rent sector since 2023. While currently largely outside our Crane Survey area, this trend provides positive signals for future consideration in Manchester's wider growth areas such as Victoria North, Wythenshawe, and Holt Town, which could accommodate such developments.

Future land use and planning

The target of 61,000 new housing units by 2040 to accommodate 150,000 more people across the Local Authority, as identified in Manchester’s Draft Local Plan, brings the need to continue to strategically plan land use requirements into even sharper focus. For sustainable development to continue, residential growth should drive demand for employment space. The Local Plan aims to provide 15.6 million sq. ft. of new floorspace via an estimated 24 to 49 hectares of land – by comparison, this is approximately the size of Ancoats and New Islington combined (approximately 47.5 hectares).

When these employment space demands are coupled with the amount of land needed for consenting a further 45,000 residential units, it starts to highlight the scale of both the challenge and opportunity. Suggested reforms of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) consulted on in December 2025 may also unlock significant housing growth by removing planning blockers for new homes in key underutilised locations for both multi- and single-family BtR, as well as market sale projects.

Geographically, with limited developable land in the inner ring road remaining, key growth areas for residential development in and around the Regional Centre are Piccadilly and Ardwick, Holt Town, Victoria North, Strangeways, Middlewood Locks, and Regent Road; expanding high-density development outward from its current core. Similarly, just outside the Crane Survey area, the regeneration of Old Trafford can make a significant contribution to the Region's growth ambitions over the next 20 years.

"While BSA issues are navigated, the fundamentals that underpin the opportunity for growth remain. If the last 10 years are anything to go by, Manchester and Salford are set up to embark on quite the journey over the next 10 years if they can realise visions set out in their respective Local Plans. As ever, the challenge lies in the continued intricate balancing act of delivering this ambitious scale of development while ensuring a high-quality, equitable, and liveable urban environment."