This article explores how the top 25 independent oil and gas producers listed on the London Stock Exchange performed in 2024.
The global oil and gas market maintained a delicate balance in 2024. Modest global economic growth, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the continuing conflict in Ukraine forced OPEC+ countries to retain production cuts to help stabilise the market.
Brent crude oil prices held steadily in 2024, averaging around $80 per barrel, similar to the previous year. Driven by a colder winter in 2024, the UK natural gas day-ahead price surged past 120 GBp/therm in December 2024, a circa 50 per cent increase from December 2023.
Industry expects the UK government’s decision to increase the Energy Profit Levy (EPL), a tax on UK upstream oil and gas profits, to reduce investment appetite in the North Sea and negatively impact UK upstream independents with a significant presence in the basin. The government increased the headline tax on UK oil and gas activities to 78 per cent, removed the investment allowance for non-decarbonisation expenditure from 1 November 2024 and extended the term of the EPL to 31 March 2030.
Chart 1. Europe Brent Crude spot price and UK Natural Gas day-ahead price 2024
Source: Energy Information Administration and Bloomberg (accessed on 09 January 2025)
The total market capitalisation of the top 25 upstream independents increased 10 per cent to £10.9 billion in 2024. The top three companies (Harbour Energy, Energean and Ithaca Energy) accounted for 68 per cent of the league table by market capitalisation. This rises to 91 per cent for the top ten companies.
At the end of December 2024, market capitalisation increased for 15 companies and declined for 10.
The top three companies all retained their positions in the ranking year-on-year, but due to differing approaches. Harbour Energy and Ithaca Energy’s market capitalisations increased 55 per cent and 25 per cent respectively, both driven by acquisitions. Harbour Energy acquired Wintershall Dea’s upstream assets, becoming a “super independent” that is more internationally focussed and less reliant on North Sea production. Ithaca Energy grew its market capitalisation following its purchase of Eni’s North Sea assets and the remaining 30 per cent stake in the Cambo field from Shell. Energean’s market capitalisation declined 0.1 per cent compared with 2023.
Five companies entered the top 25 in 2024:
Five companies left the league table in 2024. Four due to a decline in market capitalisation, and i3 Energy was delisted after it was acquired by Gran Tierra in 2024.
Upstream independent companies face an uncertain 2025. While the new US administration is promising strong support for hydrocarbon activities, geopolitics and shifting domestic energy policy landscapes are likely to have a major impact on company performance and strategies.
In the UK, further changes to the EPL are forcing oil and gas companies to rethink their portfolios. Further, no exploration licences have been issued by the new government. The North Sea Transition Authority is currently awaiting the government’s decision regarding the potential resumption of new licencing, following the conclusion of its consultation. In addition, a court case in Scotland has ruled that environmental impact assessments (EIAs) for fossil fuels must account for downstream emissions, forcing developers of key new fields, Rosebank and Jacksdaw, to reapply for EIAs. Guidance on EIAs, however, are only going to be issued by the government sometime in spring 2025.
Several independents are rebalancing their asset portfolios to focus on regions with supportive regulatory policies. For example, Harbour Energy is expanding its portfolio beyond the UK, similarly EnQuest is pursuing investment opportunities in Southeast Asia by agreeing to acquire Harbour Energy’s assets in Vietnam. Following the Ithaca/Eni transaction in 2024, and the Shell and Equinor announcement in December 2024 to merge their North Sea assets to create a new independent producer, we expect to see consolidation continue into 2025 with a heavy focus on operational synergies.
While decarbonisation of operations is still important and EPL incentives remain for this spend, several major oil and gas companies recently announced a shift away from their low-carbon initiatives.
We included all United Kingdom, Guernsey, Jersey and Isle of Man incorporated crude oil producers trading on the London Stock Exchange as of 31 December 2024. We then compared market capitalisation from the same point in the previous year and ranked the top 25 companies by their value in British pound sterling.
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