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Deloitte: Sustainable food system could lift 300 million people out of undernourishment worldwide

Rotterdam, 19 November 2024

Summary of the report

     
  • Climate action to limit warming to below 2°C while sustainably transforming the global food system could see global economic growth gains of US$121 trillion by 2070.
  • This transformation could also make significant progress toward enhancing food security by lowering global food prices by 16%.
  • Inaction on climate change could cost the global economy US$190 trillion as a result of agricultural decline, reduced labour productivity, and damage to capital and land.
 

Deloitte's new report, "Turning point: feeding the world sustainably," quantifies the social and economic benefits from sustainably transforming global food production. About 730 million people are presently undernourished, which comprises nearly 10% of the global population. The world faces the challenge of producing enough food for a growing population, lifting more people out of the undernourishment cycle, and decarbonizing the agricultural sector and food system at the same time.

To feed the world sustainably by 2070 would require limiting warming to below 2°C while producing 40% more calories to feed a projected global population of around 10 billion people.

According to the report, a sustainable transformation of the global food system could result in meeting the minimum nutritional needs of an additional 1.6 billion people. This will allow regions with the most hunger to feed up to 300 million otherwise undernourished people. Over the same period, it is possible to reduce emissions from the global food system by two-thirds, aiding to the global path to net zero. These achievement could also increase global GDP by US$121 trillion.

Turning point: Towards a sustainable future

The report offers five possible solutions to feed a growing population sustainably :

  1. Accelerate innovation, technology, and productivity improvements.
  2. Invest in protecting, restoring, and improving natural capital, such as land, soil, water, vegetation, wildlife, and ecosystem services as a means to improve food production and food security.
  3. Reduce global emissions and thereby limit climate change and the damage it causes.
  4. Support and encourage more sustainable consumer-led choices and diets.
  5. Enhance circularity to help address and limit food waste, use by-products of food production, avoid the exhaustion of critical resources, keep materials in circulation, and enhance efficiency.

Deloitte's food systems research underscores the risks of inaction, estimating that without intervention, unchecked climate change could cost the global economy US$190 trillion between 2025 and 2070. Due to this inaction, anticipated damages could reduce the value of primary food production industries (such as crops, livestock, dairy, and fisheries) by US$13 trillion in present value terms. These impacts could reverberate through the wider food system, with food manufacturing and food services sectors anticipated to fall in value by an estimated US$12 trillion.

"COP29 is a pivotal moment for global leaders to come together to weigh the costs of inaction on climate change," says Jennifer Steinmann, Deloitte Global Sustainability Business leader. "Investing in and supporting sustainable food systems has the potential to lift hundreds of millions of people out of malnourishment, conserve resources, and mitigate climate change, which is crucial for the global economy."

Risks and rewards trend highest for lower-income communities

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), the rates of malnourishment in lower-income regions increase from 22% to 28%, and real food prices rising rose by nearly 20%. The FAO estimates that approximately 730 million people around the globe are undernourished, and climate change will exacerbate this.

Deloitte's analysis shows that transitioning to sustainable food systems could increase global food production by 9%, equivalent to US$22 trillion in the output of food systems by 2070. This increased food production could decrease food prices by 16%, making healthier diets more accessible and affordable.

Lower-income countries could see a 12% boost in GDP and the largest increase in their food consumption per capita, with an average increase of 626 calories per person per day in 2070. Additional calories produced should mainly end up in areas with significant populations facing hunger, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and South and Southeast Asia. Overall, vulnerable economies could benefit from efforts to reduce emissions through structural adjustments that would integrate new, innovative, and climate-smart agricultural practices.

"The current approach to food production is not sustainable," says Randy Jagt, Deloitte Global Future of Food leader. "Transforming our global food system to focus on sustainability will not only address each of these challenges but will significantly benefit populations already disproportionately impacted by food insecurity and climate change, supporting the communities that need it most."

Read the full report on www.deloitte.com/foodsustainability.