Turning point: Feeding the world sustainably
The costs and opportunities of long-term food system transformation
Feeding the world, sustainably, while lifting people out of undernourishment, is the turning point that is the focus of this Deloitte report.
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Feeding the world sustainably means that, by 2070, the world needs to feed close to 10 billion people by producing 40% more calories, while limiting the environmental impacts of food production.
This report analyzes the long-term benefits of five system-level solutions to feed the world more sustainably and improve outcomes for both people and the planet. Action to sustainably transform the global food system, including taking action on climate change to limit warming to below 2°C, could see global economic growth (GDP) gains of $US121 trillion by 2070, while making significant progress toward enhancing food security by lowering global food prices by 16% and cutting emissions from the global food system by around two-thirds.
More food, sustainably produced, could contribute to reducing the number of undernourished people by 300 million.
Without significant changes to how food is produced, feeding a growing population will require additional natural resources that are already under pressure, especially water and land. A business-as-usual scenario is not an option. Land used by agriculture could expand by 13% relative to 2020 – an area twice the size of India. System-level change is required.
Key findings
Feeding a growing population
Deloitte analysis shows this transition would increase global food production by 9.2%, equivalent to a US$22 trillion increase in the output of the food systems over the next 50 years. Enhancing the sustainability of the global food system could see the world produce an extra 1,030 trillion calories in 2070—enough to meet the minimum needs of an additional 1.6 billion people.
Addressing undernourishment
Around 730 million people—nearly 10% of the global population—are presently undernourished. This transformation could make significant progress toward enhancing food security by lowering global food prices by 16%, making healthier diets more accessible. Also, in regions of the world where hunger is more prevalent, one-in-five of the extra calories produced could support an additional 300 million otherwise undernourished people.
Benfits to lower-income communities
Lower-income countries—like Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and South America—could see the greatest gains, including a 12% boost in GDP and the largest increase in food consumption per capita, with an average increase in consumption in these countries of as many as 626 calories per person per day in 2070. What’s more, the concentration of these additional calories produced globally is expected to increase over time in areas with significant populations facing hunger.
The risk of inaction
Without intervention, unchecked climate change could cost the global economy US$190 trillion by 2070, reducing the value of primary food production industries (such as crops, livestock, dairy and fisheries) by US$13 trillion in present value terms between 2025 and 2070. In the wider food system, the food manufacturing and food services sectors could also fall in value by an estimated US$12 trillion by 2070 without global system-wide food transformation.
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Feeding the world sustainably: five possible solutions
Successful strategies should address the inequities in food consumption, promote more sustainable production that can withstand environmental pressures, and evolve policy frameworks in the shift to net-zero.
This report offers five system-level solutions to feed the world more sustainably. Each solution contributes to feeding the world more sustainably to varying degrees, with actions ranging from enhancing circularity, to reducing emissions and accelerating innovation, technology and production improvements.
The whole food value chain must take action
Across the system, every value chain actor—finance, technology, producer, supply chain and government will need to be involved. Feeding the world sustainably requires action across the food, climate and natural systems. From the local to the international level, each part of the economy has a role to play in enabling a more productive food system that is less harmful to the environment and contributes to reducing emissions to limit temperature rises to well below 2°C.
The importance of acting now
Swift global action is needed to shift onto a path of feeding the world more sustainably. This analysis and modeling show that feeding the world sustainably could mean feeding around 10 billion people by producing 40% more calories than it does today while limiting warming to well below 2°C—and reducing the number of undernourished people by approximately 300 million by 2070.
The recent worsening of hunger rates and increase in global food prices are a few of the early indicators of the food system heading toward an unsustainable path, further motivating action today.
This Deloitte report outlines the scale of the short-term actions and investments needed to enable the system-level transition from each part of the food system.
