The Dutch pension and insurance market: Outlook 2025

For consumers, businesses and intermediaries, the customer experience is important. Current investments in technology will improve the customer experience at insurers and pension providers in several ways in the near future. AI tools will enhance customer interactions by analysing data and preferences, enabling personalised solutions. Automating, for example, claims assessments using large language models will shorten processing times and increase accuracy. Chatbots will offer the possibility of genuine dialogue with customers, sometimes even via voicebots, allowing service employees to focus on more complex cases. Finally, AI will facilitate customer onboarding by extensively automating compliance checks and applying Digital Wallets.

Dutch insurers and pension providers are increasingly moving from AI experiments to large-scale, targeted applications. The focus is on customer interaction, product innovation and operational efficiency. An example is NN Group’s Future Ready programme, which aims to generate €200 million in annual benefits by 2027 through AI and simplified IT processes. To date, 191 (Gen)AI use cases have been put into production, with the ambition to increase this number to 300 by 2028. At the same time, challenges remain in areas such as regulation, talent shortages and ethics. We expect insurers to sustainably integrate AI into core processes such as claims management, policy administration and customer contact.

We live in a time of increasing geopolitical tensions and a fragmented global economy. Despite this turbulence, publicly listed insurers have promised their shareholders stable dividend streams. With current solvency ratios around and above 170%, insurers have strong buffers to absorb shocks. However, the current market volatility combined with a stable dividend policy requires insurers to focus on two fronts: cost control in the short term and long-term investments in a flexible, cost-efficient technology foundation. Insurers will increasingly base their operations on cloud technology, making costs variable and the organisation more agile. This will free up cash flow in favour of stable dividends for shareholders.

Climate change forces insurers to revise their risk models. According to the latest Financial Stability Report from De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), approximately 75% of climate-related damages in the EU are currently uninsurable. This percentage is expected to rise further due to climate change. In the Netherlands, floods caused by failure of primary water defences are generally uninsurable, leaving households and businesses financially vulnerable. Although current analyses suggest that credit risk is still limited, climate change may quickly alter this picture. Therefore, new risk models will need to explicitly incorporate climate scenarios, insurability and indirect economic effects.

In recent years, costs per participant have increased significantly, mainly due to the introduction of the new pension scheme. But should not the Future Pensions Act actually lead to simplification and lower costs per participant? Once participants have been transitioned and buy-outs are completed, it is not ‘business as usual’ for pension administrators. Pressure from society and participants to significantly reduce costs per participant in favour of better pensions will increase. This will prompt administrators to invest further in IT, apply (Gen)AI, collaborate within the sector and pursue further scaling.