AI is driving economic growth and productivity gains without impacting jobs, yet

Artificial intelligence is now a central theme in discussions on the US economy—especially its potential impact on investment, productivity, and employment. That’s because earlier waves of technological progress influenced significant structural changes in the economy: In the early 2000s, rapid progress in information technology led to strong productivity gains, which, in turn, supported faster economic growth and helped keep inflation in check. It also contributed to a structural shift in the labor market in favor of high-wage occupations like those in computer and mathematical sciences. So, what has the advent of AI changed so far?

Although it’s still early days, three trends stand out. First, AI-fueled tech investments have become one of the key drivers of economic growth, accounting for about half of the growth in real gross domestic product since 2025.1 Second, productivity growth has picked up compared with the previous decade.2 These productivity gains, however, have been mostly concentrated in tech-related industries till now. Finally, employment in these industries has declined since 2023, but it is unclear whether this reflects AI-driven displacement or “rightsizing” after the post-pandemic hiring surge.3 Occupational data also offers limited evidence of any broad-based job losses due to AI, so far.