Recuperación en “U” e inflación en descenso

The economic recovery is expected to be U-shaped in 2024.

This year, spending cuts and public investment are expected to limit consumption, despite the recovery of the agricultural sector and growth in oil and gas.

By 2025, public spending would stabilize in an election year, while sustained growth in hydrocarbons and mining, and the recovery of real wages, would boost the economy.

On the other hand, additional financing would be needed to ease capital controls, since the accumulation of reserves would serve to cover debt maturities in 2024.

Inflation is projected to decline, reaching single-digit monthly levels before midyear. The extent of the decline would determine the trajectory of the exchange rate and interest rates. Given the narrowing gap, a rate cut may be prioritized.

Econosignal Argentina
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