Ireland risks missing 2030 housing target by over 100,000 homes, Deloitte’s Crane Survey Report finds

• Shortfall likely to be between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, meaning the next 12-18 months are critical.
• Viability of student accommodation an ongoing challenge as just 380 bed spaces set to be completed in 2026.
• Transaction volumes for hotels fell in H1 2026 but development activity robust.
• New office supply in Dublin set to be incredibly limited from 2027 to 2030.

Ireland is set to miss its 2030 target of building 300,000 new homes by between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, the latest research from Deloitte’s Crane Survey Report finds.

The report estimates that 40,000 homes will be completed in 2026 and while this reflects a 10% increase on 2025, it means 260,000 more homes are needed in the next four years to reach the 300,000 figure.

The report states that maintaining the current level of momentum is not a given with Deloitte’s analysis showing the rate of planning permission approvals is not keeping pace.

Deloitte points out that almost 182,130 homes have been granted planning permission in Ireland over the past five years, but Central Bank of Ireland data, relating to 2017-2020, has shown that between 25% and 32% of such permissions lapse without commencing construction.

It says that applying this ratio to the existing figure results in the predicted shortfall of between 123,400 and 136,100 homes. The report states that even if it is assumed that all of the 40,000 homes expected to be completed in 2026 relate to planning permissions achieved outside the last five years, it would still leave a shortfall of 77,870 units.

It states that while there is time between now and 2030 for more units to be granted planning permission, there is a time lag between planning permission being granted and construction starting, which means the next 12 to 18 months will be critical to closing the gap.

Released annually, the Deloitte Crane Survey Report is the most comprehensive analysis of construction activity across Ireland’s cities, tracking what’s being built where and what this means for the country’s economic and social priorities.

Viability remains a challenge for new student accommodation

Amid a steady increase in third-level enrolments and a persistent demand for student accommodation, Deloitte’s Crane Survey shows there has been a decline in the delivery of new purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) developments over the last two years.

Just 365 PBSA bedspaces were completed in 2025 across two schemes with 115 at Buckley House in Maynooth, County Kildare and 250 at The Artisan in Dublin 1. This marked a decline from almost 900 bed spaces in 2024 and was well below the 10-year annual average of 1,620.

Completions in 2026 are set to improve only marginally, with 380 bed spaces across two schemes. This comes as Ireland’s third-level enrolments are anticipated to peak at 247,600 students in the academic year of 2033/34 – up from 222,170 in 2025/26.

A total of 2,400 PBSA bed spaces were under construction across 11 schemes at the close of Q3 2026. This is up significantly from Deloitte’s previous Crane Survey report in Q1 2025, when just 1,400 bed spaces were under construction.

Bedspaces under construction are spread across Dublin (1,460), Galway (500), Cork (240) and Limerick (200). The largest scheme under construction at present is at University College Dublin’s Belfield campus, which will deliver 490 PBSA bed spaces. The majority (72%) of bed spaces under construction are private schemes, with the remaining bed spaces being provided by third level institutions.

Looking ahead, there are 11,875 PBSA bed spaces in developments that have secured planning permission, but the report says it is difficult to estimate what proportion of these will commence construction and ultimately add to PBSA stock. 

Investor interest in hotels is evident, despite fall in transaction activity

Transaction volumes for hotels fell in H1 2026, following record activity levels in the previous two years. In H1 2026, transaction activity reached a reported seven transactions worth €82.75 million, considerably lower than the c. €340 million which transacted in H1 2025.

Development activity, however, remains robust.

A total of 2,080 hotel rooms are expected to be added to the market this year and 3,540 hotel rooms were under construction nationwide at the close of Q3 2026.

Among the hotel rooms currently under construction, 1,250 rooms are expected to reach completion in Q4 2026, including 470 at the Marriott Courtyard Inn on Dublin’s Abbey Street.

Construction activity continues to be concentrated in Dublin, with the capital accounting for just under 2,800 rooms, which is 79% of those under construction.

Next year, over 2,020 rooms are expected to come to market, with a further 250 rooms expected to complete in 2028. This figure is likely to increase as more projects commence construction into next year.

Further along the development pipeline, 11,550 hotel rooms have been granted planning permission.

Once again, this activity is concentrated in Dublin, which accounts for 72% of all rooms granted planning. Meanwhile, plans have been submitted for just under 1,200 hotel rooms nationwide.

Office to hotel conversions continue to play an important role in the hospitality pipeline in Dublin. This includes the development of a 131-bedroom hotel at 93 St Stephen’s Green.

Dublin office pipeline activity contracts significantly

2026 marks the last year of significant new delivery in Dublin’s office market with construction starts grinding to a halt over the past two years, the Crane Survey finds.

Beyond 2026, there will be no newly constructed speculative office space delivered to the Dublin market.

An estimated 93,900 sq m of new office space is expected to have been delivered by the end of 2026. This includes large pre-let sites such as Citi’s new headquarters (Waterfront South Central), KPMG’s new headquarters on Harcourt Street, and Enterprise Ireland’s new office at 160 Townsend Street.

Heading into 2027, just over 40,000 sq m of new and extensively refurbished office space will be under construction. This is made up of Deloitte’s new office space at 1 Adelaide Road (due to complete in 2028), and the only two offices to have commenced refurbishment/redevelopment in 2026 - 4 & 5 Grand Canal Square and IPUT’s 44-45 St. Stephen’s Green, which is due to be completed in 2027. 

Looking ahead, there are a number of schemes ready to commence construction. At the time of writing, demolition work is ongoing at Florian, Adelaide Road, Dublin 2, with construction due to commence shortly. This will measure over 20,000 sq m with a target completion year in 2029. Beyond that, market participants will be watching closely for signs of activity at Camden Yard, Dublin 8 (11,100 sq m) and 29 Earlsfort Terrace.

While activity is likely to progress at these two sites, and others with ground works done may also progress, it remains highly likely that from 2027 through to 2030 new supply and in particular new speculative supply will be incredibly limited.