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Clean Hydrogen in Asia Pacific: Fuel for Thought

How early wins in Asia Pacific hydrogen can deliver crucial momentum for net zero

Switching to using clean hydrogen is vital for decarbonising and achieving net zero emissions in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.  

The sectors set to benefit most from this transition are hard-to-abate heavy industries – steelmaking, chemical manufacturing, shipping – as well as aviation and power.

But limited progress is cause for concern. Lack of change and delay are synonymous with rising physical and transition costs and are the recipe for a disorderly transition.

To date, bankable demand has been limited, resulting in few projects proceeding to financial close. The gulf between net zero aligned announcements and policy targets and committed market activity is widening at an alarming rate.

This report addresses three pressing questions about clean hydrogen’s APAC prospects:

1.     How must the hydrogen market develop in APAC to deliver a net zero region?

2.     How much investment is required to deliver an Asia Pacific hydrogen market?

3.     How can parties across the value chain turn momentum into bankable actions?

Net zero deadlines are fast approaching: 2030 and 2050, and this year will be make-or-break for Asia Pacific’s clean hydrogen aspirations.

As of September 2024, urgent, coordinated efforts are essential to set up the necessary technological, financial, and regulatory frameworks for thriving clean hydrogen markets. Challenges consist of establishing viable pricing structures, risk allocation models, and robust carbon certification.

Still, APAC's potential low-carbon market, driven by clean hydrogen, could be worth $632bn (half of global demand) by 2050 ($1.2 trillion).

To achieve net zero emissions by 2050 as per the UN's 2016 Paris agreement, Asia Pacific faces obstacles such as economically viable pricing, risk allocation frameworks, and carbon certification systems. Mitigation strategies include policy support, early projects, pricing models, risk allocation frameworks, and high integrity carbon certification.

Economic opportunities exist in decarbonising sectors such as steelmaking, industrial chemicals, aviation, and shipping, with an estimated $3.2 trillion capital investment required for APAC hydrogen projects over the next 25 years, primarily in China, India, and Australia.

Asia Pacific countries, especially China and Japan, have strategic advantages in hydrogen production and storage technologies. Their dominance of key technologies includes electrolysers, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen turbines. This early advantage, however, is not guaranteed to convert into sales or market share for Asian supply chain players. That can only come from proven performance, rapid feedback loops and development of a value-differentiated offering.

We anticipate significant policy support acceleration in 2024/2025, with programmes and incentives such as:

·       India's 'National Green Hydrogen Mission'

·       Australia's 'Hydrogen Headstart'

·       Japan's 'Contracts for Difference'

To optimise government policies and enhance cross-border cooperation, aligning certification regimes, avoiding 'locked in' offtake agreements, negotiating government-to-government for initial projects, and promoting cross-border equity are critical.

Conclusion

The key takeaways from Fuel for Thought are as follows:

  • Action must be taken now in the APAC region to achieve zero emissions by 2050  
  • The potential value of the APAC hydrogen market is immense – around $630 billion p.a. – if realised thoughtfully, coherently, synchronously, legally and transparently
  • Stakeholder collaboration is crucial to capitalise on the opportunities within the hydrogen economy and ensure successful hydrogen implementation.

For more detailed insights, download the full report

 

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