Energy, oil, and gas price forecast
Tariff tensions meet profit potential
Tariff discussions have sent markets into motion while heavy oil price differentials hold steady. But there’s an unexpected opportunity there for Canadian energy producers. With oil sold at global prices but operations running on a weaker Canadian dollar, those with local supply chains are enjoying improved profit margins without absorbing immediate tariff costs.
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About our forecast
The sector is transforming. So is our price forecast.
Deloitte’s energy, oil, and gas price forecast takes many factors into account, including historical trends, future market changes, current supply and demand, and global geopolitical changes. We collect this information from many sources, such as industry publications, exchange markets, and government agencies.
Our diverse, well-rounded data and information keep us in tune with the industry. With the everchanging nature of the landscape, we release our price forecasts every quarter to keep you up to date.
Crude oil
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending eight years into the future. Other US crude prices, such as Gulf Coast ASCI, Louisiana Light, and Alaskan North Slope are based on historical differentials to WTI.
Light oil prices at Edmonton are forecast using the most recent pipeline tariffs and exchange rates. Consideration is also given to the current differential futures, as traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This price is used as the basis to arrive at the remaining domestic crude reference points, using price offsets based on long-term historical data.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the International Commodities Exchange (ICE), which extends seven years into the future. Other International crude oil prices—such as the OPEC Basket, Venezuelan, Nigerian, Mexican, Russian, and Indonesian crudes—are based on historical differentials to Brent crude oil.
Natural gas
Henry Hub natural gas prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending twelve years into the future. Other US natural gas prices, such as Permian Waha and Louisiana East Texas, are based on historical differentials to Henry Hub.
The Canadian AECO-C price is forecast using the historical differential to Henry Hub. Consideration is also given to AECO-C futures as traded on the Natural Gas Exchange (NGX).
UK National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas pricing has been forecast separately from Henry Hub based on futures data from ICE.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs)
Canadian NGL prices are based on delivery to Edmonton. Adjustments for transportation back to specific plant sales points are required to arrive at the property product price.
Condensate, propane, and butane are tied directly to light oil prices at Edmonton and are forecast based on historical trends. Similarly, ethane is tied to AECO-C gas prices.
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Andrew Botterill
Lesley Mitchell
