v>Laszlo Bock, Work Rules! Insights from Inside Google that Will Transform How You Live and Lead (New York: Twelve, 2015).
The quote is by Paul Meehl, the psychologist whose discoveries about how simple predictive models routinely outperform expert judgment in virtually all domains was memorably dramatized in the book and movie Moneyball. Commenting on much of the psychological research of his time, Meehl wrote: “Theories in ‘soft’ areas of psychology lack the background of scientific knowledge. They tend neither to be refuted not corroborated, but instead merely fade away as people lose interest.” From “Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 46, 1978, pp. 806–34, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.200.7648&rep=rep1&type=pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
In Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2015), Richard Thaler recounts his role in the formation of UK Prime Minister David Cameron administration’s influential Behavioral Insights Team (aka “Nudge Unit”). In September 2015, Barack Obama signed an executive order establishing a similar unit in the US government, www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/15/executive-order-using-behavioral-science-insights-better-serve-american, accessed October 20, 2015.
Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008).
See the “Law schooling” chapter of Thaler’s Misbehaving and also “The importance of misbehaving: A conversation with Richard Thaler,” Deloitte Review 18.
Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (New York: W.W. Norton, 2003).
In 1954, Meehl published Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence, documenting the ability of even simple predictive models to outperform human experts at making predictions. This “disturbing little book,” as Meehl later called it, documented 20 studies comparing the predictions of human experts with those of simple models. The predictions ranged from how well schizophrenic patients would respond to electroshock to how well prisoners would respond to parole. Meehl concluded that in none of the 20 cases could human experts outperform the models. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, psychologist Daniel Kahneman called Paul Meehl a hero of his. In a 2011 Vanity Fair profile of Kahneman, Michael Lewis wrote that a review of Moneyball by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein alerted him to the fact that Meehl’s and Kahneman’s work help explain the market inefficiency he had “stumbled on.” See “The king of human error,” Vanity Fair, December 2011, www.vanityfair.com/news/2011/12/michael-lewis-201112, accessed October 20, 2015.
See Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011). We have changed the wording of Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s original scenario, which states that “she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.” When Kahneman and Tversky posed this question to students at UC Berkeley and Stanford, they found that 87 percent answered incorrectly. Interestingly, they also found that social-science graduate students who had been trained in statistics were less likely to answer incorrectly. The implication is that human judgment and decision making can be improved through statistical education and training. This theme is further explored in Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (New York: Crown, 2015)
Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, p. 67
For mavens, these cognitive biases are known as the law of small numbers, what you see is all there is, the availability heuristic, the fundamental attribution error, the halo effect, and the affect heuristic. Daniel Kahneman discusses all of these—and many more—in Thinking, Fast and Slow. The clever phrase “the emotional tail wags the rational dog” is from the social psychologist Jonathan Haidt, in “The emotional dog and its rational tail: A social intuitionist approach to moral judgment,” Psychological Review, vol. 108, 2001, pp. 814–34, www.motherjones.com/files/emotional_dog_and_rational_tail.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
Or, for that matter, if one is going up for parole. See, for example, “I think it’s time we broke for lunch…,” Economist, April 14, 2011, www.economist.com/node/18557594. John Tierney’s New York Times Magazine piece “Do you suffer from decision fatigue?,” August 17, 2011, contains a discussion of the judge case study and Roy Baumeister’s work on decision fatigue more generally, www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/magazine/do-you-suffer-from-decision-fatigue.html?_r=0; both accessed October 20, 2015.
Bock, Work Rules!, pp. 87–90.
J.T. Prickett, N. Gada-Jain, and F.J. Bernieri, “The importance of first impressions in a job interview,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwestern Psychological Association, Chicago, 2000.
Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan, “Are Emily and Greg more employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A field experiment on labor market discrimination,” American Economic Review 94, no. 4, September 2004, pp. 991–1013, www2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/econ321/orazem/bertrand_emily.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015. A more recent study by Katherine Milkman and her colleagues, involving simulated letters being sent to thousands of professors, concluded that black-sounding names can also disadvantage candidates’ prospects of getting into top graduate schools. See Milkman, Modupe Akinola, and Dolly Chugh, “Temporal distance and discrimination: An audit study in academia,” Psychological Science 23, no. 7, 2012, pp. 710–17, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5353b838e4b0e68461b517cf/t/538503bde4b00c6f1fc1699c/1401226173020/temporal-distance-and-discrimination-.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
See Marilyn Marks, “Blind auditions key to hiring musicians,” Princeton Weekly Bulletin, February 12, 2001, www.princeton.edu/pr/pwb/01/0212/7b.shtml, accessed October 20, 2015
Another approach is to simply make people aware of the cognitive biases that can impair good judgment. For example, Google distributes a list of cognitive biases to employees engaged in performance-evaluation discussions. Another approach is tapping into “the wisdom of the crowd” to combine multiple interview or performance evaluations. See Laszlo Bock, Work Rules! and Adam Bryant, “Google’s quest to build a better boss,” New York Times, March 12, 2011, www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/business/13hire.html, accessed October 20, 2015. For an excellent set of guides on countering unconscious biases, see the Google “re:Work” website, https://rework.withgoogle.com/subjects/unbiasing/. Of course, Google is not the only organization mindful of the need to counter biased Type 1 thinking—for example, see the following chapter of a World Bank publication, on “The biases of development professionals,” www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Publications/WDR/WDR%202015/Chapter-10.pdf. The authors thank Andrew Blau and Peter Viechnicki, respectively, for these references. Bock also discusses the use of “the wisdom of crowds” (a.k.a. collective intelligence) methods to improve hiring decisions. The idea is that when independent, diverse perspectives are combined, individual-level cognitive biases cancel out. Of course if the group decision-making process is poorly structured, the result can be groupthink—the opposite of collective intelligence. For a general discussion, see Cass Sunstein and Reid Hastie, Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Review Press, 2014). See also “From groupthink to collective intelligence: A conversation with Cass Sunstein,” Deloitte Review 17, http://dupress.com/articles/groupthink-collective-intelligence-cass-sunstein-interview/. Sunstein and Hastie’s discussion of “hidden profiles” is particularly relevant to the context of hiring and promotion decisions.
It is important to note the distinction between structured and unstructured interviews. A relevant passage from Work Rules! is excerpted in Laszlo Bock, “Here’s Google’s secret to hiring the best people,” Wired, April 2015, www.wired.com/2015/04/hire-like-google/, accessed October 20, 2015. Bock criticizes traditional interviews while promoting the use of structured (situational or behavioral) interviews. While traditional, unstructured interviews are breeding grounds for cognitive biases, Bock argues that structured interviews, composed of neutral and deliberately selected questions, do provide useful comparison among candidates because of the consistency that they enforce among interviewers. Enforcing consistency is also a major way in which predictive models help counteract cognitive biases. Bock comments, “Applying a boring-seeming rubric is the key to quantifying and taming the mess.”
Josh Bersin, “Making the job search work for you—The science of fit,” The Business of Talent, May 11, 2012, www.bersin.com/blog/post/2012/05/Making-the-Job-Search-Work-for-You---The-Science-of-Fit.aspx, accessed November 2, 2015.
We don’t want to create the impression that all of these ideas originated at Google. To the contrary, many of the practices Laszlo Bock describes in Work Rules! are rooted in decades of consistent research in the social sciences. For example, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman writes of an early experience of his using Moneyball principles to construct a statistical decision tool to improve on the Israeli army’s then-intuition-based approach to interviewing candidates. Though his tool initially caused an uproar, the army eventually embraced and used it for decades. Kahneman comments, “Suppose that you need to hire a sales representative for your firm. If you are serious about hiring the best possible person for the job, this is what you should do. First, select a few traits that are prerequisites for success in this position (technical proficiency, engaging personality, reliability, and so on). Don’t overdo it—six dimensions is a good number. The traits you choose should be as independent as possible from each other, and you should feel that you can assess them reliably by asking a few factual questions. Next, make a list of those questions for each trait and think about how you will score it, say on a 1–5 scale. You should have an idea of what you will call ‘very weak’ or ‘very strong.’ . . . To avoid halo effects, you must collect the information on one trait at a time, scoring each before you move on to the next one. Do not skip around. To evaluate each candidate add up the six scores. . . . Firmly resolve that you will hire the candidate whose final score is the highest, even if there is another one whom you like better. . . . A vast amount of research offers a promise: You are much more likely to find the best candidate if you use this procedure than if you do what people normally do in such situations, which is to go into the interview unprepared and to make choices by an overall intuitive judgment such as ‘I looked into his eyes and liked what I saw’,” pp. 214–15.
For example, prior job history and work samples are among the best predictors of future job performance; actuaries use records of prior accidents, violations, credit scores, and trails of digital breadcrumbs from telematics devices to predict the likelihood of future accidents; marketers know that the best way to estimate customer lifetime value is using records of past purchasing behavior; and health care data scientists know that past diet, exercise, and lifestyle data is the best predictor of future health behavior. For further examples and discussion of this theme, see James Guszcza and Bryan Richardson, “Two dogmas of big data,” Deloitte Review 15, http://dupress.com/articles/behavioral-data-driven-decision-making/.
Sociometric badges were invented in Alex Pentland’s group at MIT Media Lab. See Pentland, Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread—The Lessons from a New Science (New York: Penguin, 2014) and Pentland, “The new science of building great teams,” Harvard Business Review, April 2012, https://hbr.org/2012/04/the-new-science-of-building-great-teams, accessed October 20, 2015. See also Ben Waber, People Analytics: How Social Sensing Technology Will Transform Business and What It Tells Us About the Future of Work (Upper Saddle River, NJ: FT Press, 2013) and Aaron E. Carroll, “To be sued less, doctors should consider talking to patients more,” New York Times, June 1, 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/06/02/upshot/to-be-sued-less-doctors-should-talk-to-patients-more.html, accessed November 9, 2015.
Richard H. Thaler, “Unless you are Spock, irrelevant things matter in economic behavior,” New York Times, May 8, 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/05/10/upshot/unless-you-are-spock-irrelevant-things-matter-in-economic-behavior.html, accessed November 2, 2015.
This was an experiment famously performed, at Draeger’s Market in Menlo Park, CA, by Columbia University professor Sheena Iyengar. See Iyengar and Mark R. Lepper, “When choice is demotivating: Can one desire too much of a good thing?,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol. 79, no. 6, 2000, https://faculty.washington.edu/jdb/345/345%20Articles/Iyengar%20%26%20Lepper%20(2000).pdf. Iyengar gives a more entertaining account in her TED lecture “How to make choosing easier,” www.ted.com/talks/sheena_iyengar_choosing_what_to_choose, both accessed November 4, 2015.
Interior Design, “Welcome to 1969: Mad Men’s award-winning set design,” slideshow, April 25, 2014, www.interiordesign.net/projects/detail/2343-welcome-to-1969-mad-mens-award-winning-set-design/, accessed November 2, 2015.
Mohamed Boubekri et al., “Impact of windows and daylight exposure on overall health and sleep quality of office workers: A pilot study,” Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine, vol. 10, no. 6, 2014, www.aasmnet.org/jcsm/ViewAbstract.aspx?pid=29503, accessed November 12, 2015.
In Misbehaving, Thaler reports that while co-authoring Nudge, the breakthrough idea of choice architecture came from rereading Don Norman’s classic The Psychology of Everyday Things (New York: Basic, 1988).
Another common misconception is that choice-architecture decisions must be kept secret to be effective. But as the above example suggests, this is generally not the case. In fact, someone designing an office could publicly crowdsource ideas from employees for how they would like to be nudged; the nudge tactics would almost certainly be no less effective. Similarly, it is likely that if asked, a majority of employees in most organizations would be in favor of “smart defaults” that nudge them to select health and retirement benefits estimated (using data) to be in their best interest. Cass Sunstein calls such scenarios “choosing not to choose.” Nudges need not be covert to be effective; on the contrary, people can consciously choose to be nudged. See Sunstein, “Choosing not to choose,” Duke Law Journal, vol. 64, no. 1, October 2014, http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3776&context=dlj, accessed October 20, 2015.
Brigette C. Madrian and Dennis F. Shea, “The power of suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) participation and savings behavior,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 141, Issue 4, November 2001, pp. 1149–87, www.retirementmadesimpler.org/Library/The%20Power%20of%20Suggestion-%20Inertia%20in%20401%28k%29.pdf, accessed November 2, 2015
Richard H. Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi, “Save more tomorrow: Using behavioral economics to increase employee saving,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 112, no. 1, 2004, https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/Richard.Thaler/research/pdf/SMarTJPE.pdf, accessed November 2, 2015.
See Saurabh Bhargava, George Loewenstein, and Justin Sydnor, Do individuals make sensible health insurance decisions? Evidence from a menu with dominated options, NBER, working paper no. 21160, May 2015, www.nber.org/papers/w21160, accessed October 20, 2015. We thank our Deloitte colleague Dan Coyle and Justin Sydnor of the University of Wisconsin-Madison for helpful conversations.
See Rebecka Rosenquist and Janet Weiner, Nudging without shoving—choice architecture on health insurance exchanges, Penn LDI, April 28, 2015, http://ldi.upenn.edu/nudging-without-shoving-choice-architecture-health-insurance-exchanges, accessed October 20, 2015
See Richard H. Thaler, “Opting in vs. opting out,” New York Times, September 26, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/business/economy/27view.html, accessed October 20, 2015.
See the chapter “Nudge . . . a lot” in Work Rules! Bock also describes the use, in Google’s cafeterias, of Cornell professor Brian Wansink’s “small plate” diet theory. Wansink is famous for the evil-genius “stale popcorn” experiment: At a movie theater, pass out free bags of unbuttered, unsalted popcorn that is so stale it squeaks. The popcorn is basically inedible, so no one eats all of it. The twist: If you randomly distribute small and big bags, the people given the bigger bags eat correspondingly more. See Wansink’s website, http://mindlesseating.org/.
See the chapter “Nudge . . . a lot” in Work Rules! Bock also describes the use, in Google’s cafeterias, of Cornell professor Brian Wansink’s “small plate” diet theory. Wansink is famous for the evil-genius “stale popcorn” experiment: At a movie theater, pass out free bags of unbuttered, unsalted popcorn that is so stale it squeaks. The popcorn is basically inedible, so no one eats all of it. The twist: If you randomly distribute small and big bags, the people given the bigger bags eat correspondingly more. See Wansink’s website, http://mindlesseating.org/.
For the 1992 film adaptation of Glengarry Glen Ross, screenwriter David Mamet added Alec Baldwin’s “motivational” speech to his 1984 play script. See www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZg_ALxEz0, accessed November 2, 2015.
Josh Bersin, “Becoming irresistible: A new model for employee engagement,” Deloitte Review 16, http://dupress.com/articles/employee-engagement-strategies/
Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776), chapter 2.
Companies with a high-impact recognition culture have a 31 percent lower voluntary turnover rate and significantly higher levels of profitability and innovation. See “Bersin & Associates unlocks the secrets of effective employee recognition,” June 12, 2012, www.bersin.com/News/Content.aspx?id=15543, accessed November 2, 2015.
The pioneers in this field are Edward Deci and Richard Ryan of the University of Rochester. See for example “Intrinsic and extrinsic motivations: Classic definitions and new directions,” Contemporary Educational Psychology, vol. 25, 2000, pp. 54–67, https://mmrg.pbworks.com/f/Ryan,+Deci+00.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
See Steffie Woolhandler and Dan Ariely, “Will pay for performance backfire? Insights from behavioral economics,” Health Affairs Blog, October 11, 2012, http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2012/10/11/will-pay-for-performance-backfire-insights-from-behavioral-economics/, accessed October 20, 2015.
See Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rustichini, “A fine is a price,” Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 29, January 2000, http://rady.ucsd.edu/faculty/directory/gneezy/pub/docs/fine.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
See, for example, Karen Cheung-Larivee, “Pay for performance fails to improve quality,” FierceHealthcare, April 10, 2012, www.fiercehealthcare.com/story/pay-performance-fails-improve-quality/2012-04-10, accessed November 2, 2015.
Dan Ariely, Uri Gneezy, George Loewenstein, and Nina Mazar, Large stakes and big mistakes, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston working paper no. 05–11, July 23, 2005, www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2005/wp0511.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
See Matthew G. Springer et al., Teacher pay for performance: Experimental evidence from the project on incentives in teaching, National Center on Performance Incentives, September 2010, www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reprints/2010/RAND_RP1416.pdf, accessed October 20, 2015.
Knowledge@Wharton, “How physician report cards can improve health care,” August 28, 2014, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/how-physician-report-cards-can-improve-health-care/, accessed November 2, 2015.
Daniel Pink, Drive: The Surprising Truth about What Motivates Us (New York: Riverhead, 2009), p. 65. See Teresa M. Amabile, Elise Phillips, and Mary Ann Collins, “Person and environment in talent development: The case of creativity,” in Talent Development: Proceedings from the 1993 Henry B. and Jocelyn Wallace National Report Symposium on Talent Development, edited by Nicholas Colangelo et al. (Dayton, OH: Ohio Psychology Press, 1993), pp. 273–74.
London School of Economics and Political Science, “When performance-related pay backfires,” June 2009, www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/news/archives/2009/06/performancepay.aspx, accessed October 20, 2015.
See Barry Schwartz, “Rethinking work,” New York Times, August 28, 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/opinion/sunday/rethinking-work.html?_r=0, accessed October 20, 2015.
Kaomi Goetz, “How 3M gave everyone days off and created an innovation dynamo,” Co Design, February 1, 2011, www.fastcodesign.com/1663137/how-3m-gave-everyone-days-off-and-created-an-innovation-dynamo, accessed November 2, 2015.
Jillian D’Onfro, “The truth about Google’s famous ‘20% time’ policy,” Business Insider, April 17, 2015, www.businessinsider.com/google-20-percent-time-policy-2015-4, accessed November 2, 2015.
See Zeynep Ton, The Good Jobs Strategy: How the Smartest Companies Invest in Employees to Lower Costs and Boost Profits (New York: New Harvest, 2014), “Introduction,” available at http://zeynepton.com/book/, accessed November 2, 2015.
Tony Hsieh, “How I did it: Zappos’s CEO on going to extremes for customers,” Harvard Business Review, July-August 2010, https://hbr.org/2010/07/how-i-did-it-zapposs-ceo-on-going-to-extremes-for-customers, accessed November 2, 2015.
Reed Hastings, “Netflix culture: Freedom & responsibility,” August 1, 2009, www.slideshare.net/reed2001/culture-1798664, accessed November 2, 2015.
Google company overview, www.google.com/about/company/, accessed November 2, 2015
Bock, Work Rules!, pp. 33–34
See Jessica Stillman, “What you can learn about job satisfaction from a janitor,” Inc., June 7, 2013, www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/what-you-can-learn-about-career-satisfaction-from-a-hospital-janitor.html, accessed October 20, 2015.
See, for example, Theresa Amabile and Steve Kramer, “What doesn’t motivate creativity can kill it,” Harvard Business Review, April 25, 2012, https://hbr.org/2012/04/balancing-the-four-factors-tha-1, accessed October 20, 2015.
Bock, Work Rules!, pp. 242–49
Recent research informed by neuroscience has found that performance rankings elicit an instinctive “fight or flight” response that actually inhibits the sort of coaching and development that performance management is ostensibly designed to promote. See, for example, David Rock, “Managing with the brain in mind,” Oxford Leadership Journal, vol. 1, no. 1, December 2009, http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic1331850.files/Social%20Dynamics/Managing%20with%20the%20Brain%20in%20Mind.pdf, accessed November 4, 2015.
Marcus Buckingham and Ashley Goodall, “Reinventing performance management,” Harvard Business Review, April 2015, https://hbr.org/2015/04/reinventing-performance-management, accessed November 2, 2015.
Chris Richardson and Gerhard Vorster, Get out of your own way: Unleashing productivity, Deloitte Australia, October 29, 2014, www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/building-lucky-country/articles/get-out-of-your-own-way.html.
Cornerstone on Demand, “Toxic employees in the workplace: Hidden costs and how to spot them,” 2015, www.cornerstoneondemand.com/sites/default/files/whitepaper/csod-wp-toxic-employees-032015.pdf, accessed November 2, 2015.
See the Behavioural Insights Team’s website, www.gov.uk/government/organisations/behavioural-insights-team, accessed November 2, 2015.
See Deloitte University Press, Global Human Capital Trends 2015: Leading in the new world of work, http://dupress.com/periodical/trends/human-capital-trends-2015/.http://dupress.com/periodical/trends/human-capital-trends-2015/.