2026 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey
Holiday spending shines brighter this year, with younger shoppers, value seekers, and early-season sales presenting opportunities for retailers
This holiday season, which marks our 41st year of covering holiday trends, shoppers seem determined to keep spirits bright, even while watching every dollar. Between travel and outings, festive apparel, and spiffing up seasonal décor, the holiday tab can add up fast—all before a single gift gets wrapped.
Average household spend is expected to increase to US$1,654, up 4% year over year, as 79% of respondents believe higher prices are in their future. As such, the value hunt is very much on. Nearly 4 in 10 shoppers qualify as holiday value seekers who shop promotions, redeem rewards, and look to private label and other value alternatives to make gift purchases feel worth the price. Yet these shoppers expect to spend 12% more than other shoppers.
There’s plenty of room for delight, too. Half of the surveyed shoppers plan to gift an experience, up 11 percentage points since 2024, and most want to pair it with a physical gift. Self-gifting and luxury considerations are also rising, especially among younger generations.
These younger shoppers are particularly important this season, as Gen Z and millennials are expected to make up 50% of holiday spending for the first time in our survey.
Consumers are also getting an earlier start, with 22% saying they’ll shop sooner than last year. June promotions have already captured some holiday purchases for 1 in 4 shoppers, and October sales are gaining momentum (up 18 percentage points since 2023). Still, Thanksgiving week remains the main event.
The holiday shopping journey favors online-only retailers and mass merchants, which are expected to capture most of shoppers’ planned spend, while online spending is expected to make up 55% of retail budgets. Generative AI is a holiday-shopper helper, with 39% of respondents noting that it’s their primary tool for at least one holiday shopping task, but only 16% say they would permit it to complete a purchase.
For retailers, an opportunity lies in meeting shoppers’ determination to celebrate with clear value, timely promotions, and easier gift discovery, while also tapping into younger shoppers’ unique shopping preferences. Pairing products with experiences and using gen AI to build confidence rather than friction can help keep the season festive and financially manageable.
Read on for key takeaways and download the full survey findings.
Key takeaways
Budgets get a jolly lift
Shoppers plan to spend US$1,654 on average this holiday season, up 4% from US$1,595 in 2025, with Gen Z and millennials expected to make up 50% of the holiday spend. Spending on retail goods is anticipated to increase 10% year over year (US$988), while that on holiday activities is likely to decline 4% year over year (US$666).
Stockings stuffed with experiences
This holiday season, more shoppers (50%) plan to gift experiences, up 11 percentage points from 2024, with restaurant gift cards or in-person meals topping the list at 37%. For retailers, this offers a unique opportunity as 79% of those planning to gift experiences expect to pair them with physical items.
Saving smart, spending bright
Holiday value seekers (38% of surveyed shoppers), who engage in five or more cost-saving behaviors while holiday shopping, are likely to spend 12% more than other shoppers on average. They are also expected to begin shopping earlier and stay engaged through Thanksgiving week.
BY
Natalie Martini
Brian McCarthy
Stephen Rogers
Lupine Skelly
Manvi Verma
The authors would like to thank Sanjay Mallik Vadrevu, Anup Raju, and Rithu Thomas for their contributions to this survey.
Editorial (including production and copyediting): Rithu Thomas, Preetha Devan, and Anu Augustine
Design: Molly Piersol
Cover image by: Sofia Laviano; Adobe Stock
Knowledge services: Rishitha Bichapogu
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