UK energy transition journey
Where is the UK on its energy transition journey? UK emissions and energy mix, now and in the future
The UK has a legal target to achieve net zero by 2050.
The target is a pledge to transform the UK economy and prioritise green growth. Billed as the biggest economic transformation since the industrial revolution, it is a challenge that calls for a concerted effort from society, businesses, academia, financial institutions and government.
Focused on UK greenhouse gas emissions and their main source, our energy system, we look at the progress the UK has made to reach net zero since the target was set in 2019. We ask: Where does our energy come from? How do we use it? How green is our energy?
Our analysis shows that we have come a long way, but we need to go much further to fully transition to a green energy system.
Find out below about the UK energy transition journey so far. Which sectors need to reduce emissions faster and how we fare on UK targets to decarbonise electricity.
UK emissions from energy use
UK greenhouse gas emissions have have more than halved since 1990
Source: UK greenhouse gas emissions [Table 1.2], DESNZ
1. CO2e is used for CO2 equivalent and emissions for greenhouse gas emissions for brevity.
Over 80% of UK emissions come from burning fossil fuels for energy use
Energy related emissions made up 81% of total UK emissions in 2023. They come from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity and heat for industry and buildings (residential, commercial and public), and to transport people and goods.2
Less than 20% of emissions were non-energy related and came from land use, F-gases, waste and agriculture in 2023.3
Source: UK greenhouse gas emissions [Table 1.2], DESNZ
2. Transport covers road transport, railways, domestic shipping and aviation but excludes international shipping and aviation.
3. F-gases are potent greenhouse gases used mainly for refrigeration, aerosols and heat resistant coating. Emissions from waste are associated landfill gases. Emissions from agriculture mainly come from enteric fermentation associated with farmed animals, animal waste and directly from the soil.
4. We use the Climate Change Committee classifications. Industry includes industrial process emissions, which technically are not energy related. Agriculture also includes stationary and mobile combustion, which is technically energy related.
Energy supply and industry related emissions declined significantly since 1990, but decarbonisation in transport and buildings has been more modest
Energy supply and industry related emissions declined significantly (76% and 60% respectively) and accounted for most emission reduction since the 1990s.5
In comparison, emissions from buildings and transport declined modestly (33% and 15% respectively) over the same period.
Source: UK greenhouse gas emissions [Table 1.2], DESNZ5.
5. Energy supply excludes emissions from refineries, which are included in industrial emissions.
Energy supply emissions fell as coal consumption and North Sea oil and gas production declined
The Climate Change Act 2008 mandated the phase out of coal-fired power stations in the UK. As a result, emissions from electricity supply dropped by nearly three-quarters between 1990 and 2023.
Emissions from offshore oil and gas activities in the North Sea also fell since 2004 as reserves gradually depleted.
The next phase of decarbonising the energy supply needs to focus on substituting natural gas with low carbon sources in power generation.
Source: UK greenhouse gas emissions [Table 1.2], DESNZ; Statistical Review of World Energy, Energy Institute
Industrial emissions fell as we closed some energy intensive businesses, switched from coal to natural gas and electricity, and improved energy efficiency
The highest emitting industrials sectors are iron and steel, refining, cement and lime, and chemicals. Together they account for 57% of industrial emissions (18%, 19%, 5% and 15% respectively).
Industrial emissions declined for several reasons. Closing some iron and steel, refining, and cement and lime businesses meant that emissions declined as production reduced.
In contrast, emissions in chemicals manufacturing declined even though production increased. This is because many facilities switched from coal or oil to less polluting natural gas and/or electricity, and increased energy efficiency.
Note: Iron and steel production data is available till 2022 from StatsWales. 2023 data is sourced from World Steel.
Sources:
UK greenhouse gas emissions [Table 1.2], DESNZ;
Iron and steel production by year, StatsWales;
World Steel;
Refinery throughput and output of petroleum products, [Table 3.12];
Cement Industry Statistics, MPA Cement;
The 7th Carbon Budget - Advice to Parliament. Charts and data book 7.3.1;
Index of Production Time Series for the UK production industries
UK emissions have so far remained below the limits advised by the Climate Change Committee, but the targets for the period between 2033 and 2042 – Carbon Budgets 6 and 7 – drop sharply
The UK Climate Change Act 2008 established the Climate Change Committee (CCC), an independent public body, to advise the UK (including devolved) governments on carbon targets.
The CCC sets five-yearly carbon budgets (CBs). These are legally binding limits on the total amount of emissions the UK can generate over a five-year period.
The UK met the first three CBs quite comfortably, and the CCC has increased confidence that the UK will meet CB4 too.
However, the CCC’s concerns have grown over the UK’s ability to meet CB5 and even more so CB6. and CB7.
Source:
UK greenhouse gas emissions [Table 1.2], DESNZ;
Carbon budgets factsheet;
Carbon Budget Delivery Plan
The Seventh Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee
Emissions need to decline by more than half in the next decade, particularly in sectors where consumer behaviour will be crucial to drive decarbonisation, such as buildings and transport
UK emissions reduced by 42% between 2008 and 2023, since the introduction of the 2008 Climate Change Act.
To stay within the carbon budget proposed in CB7, emissions need to drop by 72% between 2023 and 2040.
Most emission reduction came from phasing out coal in energy supply and industry and closing some energy intensive industrial facilities. While we still need to reduce emissions from energy supply and industry, we need to make the biggest reduction leaps in the buildings and transport sectors. Emissions from these sectors combined need to decline more than twice as fast as they do now. For example, in transport emissions dropped 23 Mt CO2e between 2008 and 2023, but by 2040 they need to decline by 60 Mt CO2e. For this to happen, consumers need to consistently make sustainable choices.
In buildings, this means replacing gas boilers with electric heat pumps. In transport, this means replacing petrol and diesel vehicles with those that run on electricity, hydrogen and sustainable fuel.
*Note: In its 2040 Carbon Budget the CCC included International Aviation and Shipping, which was not included in its 2008 or 2023 figures
Source: Final greenhouse gas emissions tables 2023; The Seventh Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee – Charts and data book for 2040 data
UK energy mix
Fossil fuels power most of the UK but low carbon electricity is increasing
Nearly 80% of UK energy still comes from fossil fuel sources, mainly natural gas and oil. Most of this is used for heat and transport, rather than energy supply.
However, in the last two decades, the share of low carbon electricity combined with biofuels for heat has increased from 10% to 23%.
Reducing consumption of fossil fuels and increasing the proportion of low carbon energy sources is the next challenge for the energy sector.
Source: UK Inland energy consumption (ET 1.2); Fuel used in electricity generation and electricity supplied (ET 5.1)
Fossil fuels make up the vast majority of UK energy imports
Natural gas replaced coal for heat and power and North Sea oil and gas reserves are gradually depleting. This led to the UK changing from a net exporter of energy to a net importer in 2004.
The UK imported 41% of its total energy supply in 2023. As the pie chart shows, 90% of net fuel exports and imports were fossil fuels and 10% bioenergy and waste and electricity.
Source: Aggregate energy balances (DUKES 1.1)
6. Petroleum products include ethane, LPG, naphtha, aviation spirit, motor spirit, aviation turbine fuel, burning oil, diesel, gas oil, fuel oil, petroleum coke and ‘other’ product.
Most electricity is from low carbon sources, the largest being wind
Renewable power generation has increased 18-fold in the UK since 2011.7
Renewables, together with other low carbon sources such as nuclear and bioenergy, accounted for 62% of electricity supply in 2023.
Wind is the dominant UK renewable energy source. Onshore and offshore wind made up 30% of electricity supply in 2023.
Nuclear power declined 52% since 2000 due to power stations closing because of their age and technical challenges, but growth in wind and bioenergy more than made up for the shortfall.
The share of natural gas used for UK power generation is expected to decrease further as more renewables are added to the mix.
Source: Fuel used in electricity generation [ET 5.1], DESNZ
7. Renewable power generation includes onshore and offshore wind, solar, wave/tidal and hydro.
Electricity use in transport is still modest
Electrifying the UK economy and removing fossil fuels from electricity supply are the main pathways to net zero.
Currently, electricity accounts for 28% of energy use in buildings - mainly to power electric goods (including heaters) in peoples’ homes, businesses and public spaces. Buildings are also the biggest consumers of electricity across all sectors.
Electricity also supplies nearly a third of energy used by industry – mostly to operate various appliances, including a wide range of machinery.
But electricity made up only 2% of energy used in transport in 2023. A further 5% comes from biofuels to meet blending obligations, but 93% is still from petroleum products such as petrol and diesel.
Reducing emissions in transport requires replacing nearly 37 million cars, vans and heavy duty vehicles with those that run on electricity, hydrogen and sustainable fuels.
Natural gas, and to a small extent oil and coal, play a key role to heat buildings and industry today. Replacing these requires fitting electric heat pumps in nearly 24 million homes, and modifying tens of thousands of industrial heat and power processes to run on hydrogen or electricity.
Source: Energy Consumption in the UK, DESNZ
The UK set ambitious targets for low carbon energy
Currently have 15 GW of offshore wind capacity and need to increase this to 43–50 GW by 2030. We also have 16 GW of solar capacity against a target of 45–47 GW by 2030. The government has also introduced a 27–29 GW target for onshore wind against a current capacity of 15 GW. Storage capacity, both long duration and battery storage, is aimed at 27–33 GW by 2030 against 7 GW now. The UK has ambition to increase its limited existing green hydrogen capacity to 10 GW by 2030 and 1.5 Mt sustainable aviation fuel capacity by 2030.
Currently, the UK has no targets for biomass and other renewables.
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