Implications of EU Accession on the Ukrainian economy with the focus on selected energy and climate policies

Energy sector is a foundation for industry in Ukraine. Introducing policy shifts to obtain the full EU membership will translate into changes in the economic growth trajectories. This study modeled the respective changes over the next 10 years to inform decision-making of the multiple stakeholders. The considered policy shocks include decarbonization, electricity prices liberalization, and other.

Key takeaways:

• The combined policy shocks reduce GDP by an estimated 0.5% in 2035 in the scenario with EU accession, against the scenario without accession, reflecting the weight of emission pricing and the restructuring of energy-intensive sectors
• The metals industry contracts by 31.8%, while other energy-intensive industries shrink by 6% in value-added output