Implications of EU Accession on the Ukrainian economy with the focus on selected agricultural policies

Agriculture is a significant contributor to GDP and export revenues in Ukraine. Moving to the EU membership will trigger a series of policy shifts from removal of tariff barriers, alignment with EU standards, new flows of CAP funding, to many more. These changes will reshape economic growth trajectory – which is modeled in this study over the next 10 years to inform decision-making of the multiple stakeholders.

Key takeaways:

• The overall modeled accession shocks translate into a 1.4% increase in Ukraine’s GDP in 2035 (vs. the scenario of non-accession)
• The overall exports are projected to grow by 0.3% (and by 7.1% to the EU)
• Across the policy shocks, access to Common Agriculture Policy Funds stands out as the most powerful driver – its support alone is projected to raise crop output by 12.7%, livestock by 3.8%, and GDP by 1.1%